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Paul

Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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Lots happening weather wise at the moment, and lots of uncertainty as to what may happen next. 

One thing that is also uncertain sometimes, is what is model discussion, and what isn't. So we've made a handy guide to the model threads, and what posts should go where. Please take a look at it here, and try to use the most relevant thread for your post:

As ever, please hit the report button if you spot a post which you believe may be off topic or breaking the forum guidelines in any other way. The team will deal with reports as quickly as they can.

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Looks like uncle barty is making a return to our shores next week. Yesterday morning's ecm op seems like a lifetime away. 

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Well, I think it is pretty clear that many countries in Europe will experience on of the warmest January ever. Weekend's output is long forgotten and GFS is really bad today.

gfs-0-180.png?12

I think you guys in UK actually had more days with snow than mainland Europe so you can consider yourself lucky this year :D

Edited by daz_4
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Some snow-potential for the North and East?:cold-emoji:

h850t850eu.png

Ah! h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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One crumb of comfort and it is that, I have seen a number of charts in FI recently that are classic pre-cursors to not only proper cold but brutal cold, instead of huge areas of high pressure, these wedges with WAA towards the pole are more likely to deliver as the cold pool is by definition nearer by to the East but also as the cold is freshly down from the arctic, it is usually brutal as well, the one downside is with such thin wedges, it only needs the two areas of troughing to engage and its game over.

 

gfsnh-0-348_dwi1.png

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Latest GEM has a week long SW mild pump into the British Isles. UKMO and GFS at 144h on 12z run pushes any residual cold harbouring to the NE without not much effort. Maybe, ECM will show some kind of delay or different synoptocs, however odds looked well stacked against this. The current out puts in the main show a long balmy mild stretch . Hold my hands up, its looking a lost cause now ( for a few days at least ). Euro high will give many snow laden resorts a welcome break of sunshine next week. Anyway enjoy whatever the weather throws at you over the next 4 days, still some interest for snow lovers in the north country.

 C

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

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Afternoon all :)

After the interest of the next 48-72 hours it looks increasingly as though we will be entering a milder Atlantic dominated phase lasting 10-14 days. With pressure high to the south quantities of rain for southern areas look low after the weekend .

Doubtless many will be disheartened, downbeat and dejected.

Perhaps but I'd point out we're barely half way through winter and there's the small matter of February to come. I'd also point out the route to very cold often starts from very mild so a spell of milder weather may not be the curse it seems. I'd also mention that March is perfectly capable of delivering snow even for lowland areas.

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So what happened to this Easterly some posters were banging on about.

we told you that Ecm run from a couple of days ago showing easterlies was a load of junk,how many failed easterlies is that from the junk ecm.

it may have best NH verification but what about Uk verification it’s been a complete joke .

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Could be a surprise snow event for Northern england if UKMO is correct at 48hrs after the main bad of rain/snow has cleared East.

UW48-21.GIF?17-17

Note the kink (embedded shortwave trough) over NI

 

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21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So what happened to this Easterly some posters were banging on about.

we told you that Ecm run from a couple of days ago showing easterlies was a load of junk,how many failed easterlies is that from the junk ecm.

it may have best NH verification but what about Uk verification it’s been a complete joke .

@knocker posted a topic about ecm performance, it's clear that there really is a very big interseasonal difference in performance, ECMWF really does undrrperform a lot during NH winter 

 

 see pages 20-22

Performance in winter now is about at the same level as performance during summer around 1992 and performance for Europe lags behind overall NH performance 

Edited by ArHu3
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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Could be a surprise snow event for Northern england if UKMO is correct at 48hrs after the main bad of rain/snow has cleared East.

UW48-21.GIF?17-17

Note the kink (embedded shortwave trough) over NI

 

EC has it too...

5a5f8657725a3_Maps17-01-201817.thumb.png.50b5c8b85e7f08fa3c3ded1ab099d62b.png

Not a great deal of precip on it though and snow confined to higher ground.

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7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Could be a surprise snow event for Northern england if UKMO is correct at 48hrs after the main bad of rain/snow has cleared East.

UW48-21.GIF?17-17

Note the kink (embedded shortwave trough) over NI

 

Sometimes the best snowfalls are not

predicted. Snow seemed assured in the NW of England with 850mb uppers of -7c yesterday evening but in reality most places only saw hail or wet snow with snow lying only on high ground and reading reports that was hit and miss in parts.. I seems hard work getting snow in lowland parts recently.

C

Edited by carinthian
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Suddenly this doesn't look so bad...

UKMOPNH12_72_1.thumb.png.6a45675d20b17b02060d9b0a9bd0204d.png

I just clicked the Southern Hemisphere by accident and was presented with this... !

UKMOPSH12_72_1.thumb.png.aaacfbf08bc9848a66c73f8bb3c79273.png

It took me a few seconds to cotton on :D

 

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35 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So what happened to this Easterly some posters were banging on about.

we told you that Ecm run from a couple of days ago showing easterlies was a load of junk,how many failed easterlies is that from the junk ecm.

it may have best NH verification but what about Uk verification it’s been a complete joke .

This year's much-touted Beast from The East has gone where many such beasts have gone before - Narnia. And that's nae real, either!:cold-emoji:

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37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So what happened to this Easterly some posters were banging on about.

we told you that Ecm run from a couple of days ago showing easterlies was a load of junk,how many failed easterlies is that from the junk ecm.

it may have best NH verification but what about Uk verification it’s been a complete joke .

While the ECM ensembles keep churning out fair numbers of NE ridges, I won't be taking the easterly off the table. But it's not in the lead, that's for sure.

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Just now, carinthian said:

I feel very disheartened  for snow lover in lowland Southern Britain anyway, even though I am up to my neck in it !  It looks very much like a snowless January for many other lowlanders in Europe as well. Only hope now is to tap into the Brutal Cold now in Siberia as its really a flow from the east or northeast that will produce the goods down south. Lets hope for the biggest of flip of flips and a welcome nice surprise in February. 

C

Always enjoy your posts Carinthian and make a point of reading them though I think you might need to give those weather portal providers of yours a bit of a slap for leading you up the garden path about cold and snow coming from the east. lol.

keep posting.and enjoy those metres of snow you have.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM delayed.

It’s been cancelled to spare any more pain for coldies ! 

It couldn’t be any worse than the GFS 12 hrs run which was dire . 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s been cancelled to spare any more pain for coldies ! 

It couldn’t be any worse than the GFS 12 hrs run which was dire . 

GEFS weren't great either but a lot better than the 6z - 12z eps yesterday looked decent with strong support for scandi heights albeit without much support for frigid air in uk on London graph.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM delayed.

presumably due to lack of interest.

Or because the ECM staff are rolling on the floor laughing because its showing another stonking easterly seven days out😁

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The UKMO was hardly inspiring this evening but it would have a better chance of getting high pressure further north later with a chance of a drier cooler surface flow off mainland Europe.

Earlier its a  bit more favourable with shortwave energy heading se. A westwards correction would help there although we haven't seen much of these in recent days with everything being shunted further east.

Anyway we await the ECM!

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48 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This year's much-touted Beast from The East has gone where many such beasts have gone before - Narnia. And that's nae real, either!:cold-emoji:

Please don't jump to conclusions, I've seen enough of these negative and IMBY posts for one day. :angry:

Some parts of the UK are getting their best winter in ages, its not all about an easterly surely, I have waited 5 years for a decent snow event and remain positive.

Anyway, we await the delayed ECM with baited breath.

More runs needed thats all!:laugh:

Edited by snowray
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