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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards


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This will get lost amid the avalanche of posts....scuse the pun. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN 7 AND A BIT YEARS I HAVE A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL!  Only a cm mind but a landmar

Let's just start with the money shot - both the ECM and the GFS agree that, as of Wednesday 12pm, the upper air temperatures will be sitting at -14/-15C over most of Scotland, the wind will be pretty

We had a bit of a struggle to get to the hospital this morning, the bus was 20 mins late and the taxi got fed up waiting and had gone. But we got there and hubby had the op, it's not cancer it's just

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17 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Ok... so what is a good direction for the snow-starved south-easterners - (if you'll forgive me for that horrible lumping collective) is it north-east, a straight east, or south-east, all other conditions being equal, which they never will be...?

North Easterly 

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1 hour ago, igloo said:

Constent snaw on and of here for the past 2 hours after last nights falls and todays stuff the total so far is 4 inches give a take a mm temps have also droped to -1.3c its a winter wonderland up here not sure what the totals will be tommorrow morning if this keeps up over a foot maybe 

Sounds awesome, plenty pics man! if someone is getting buried tonight we can at least live it vicariously?

Back from inverness, wee covering down there and some beefy showers. Cover building better back here but nowt special yet -2.2c

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33 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Ok... so what is a good direction for the snow-starved south-easterners - (if you'll forgive me for that horrible lumping collective) is it north-east, a straight east, or south-east, all other conditions being equal, which they never will be...?

Honestly @Hairy Celt it really doesn’t matter. We could be on the cusp of the next ice age and I still wouldn’t see any snow. :D

Seriously though (and I can really only speak about Crail, which is at the extreme end of snowlessness even by SE Scotland coastal standards) forget about easterlies and in particular southeasterlies unless they are accompanied by January 1987 style uppers (i.e. about -15c 850s).

North easterlies are the best bet but you need -10 850s for the immediate coast if the wind is off the sea (particularly if it is  strong and there is low level mixing). Graupel features heavily in these set ups, more so than snow in my experience.

I saw three 10cm falls of snow in 11 years of living in Crail. 7 out of those 11 winters featured no measurable snowfalls. Two were from Atlantic fronts bumping into cold air (snow to rain events, but with very little rain) and the other was from showers in a NEly during December 2010. I never recorded more than 11cm of snow on the ground or an air temperature below -6c (rarely below -3c).

Edited by Hawesy
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@Hawesy I’m still waiting for my  predicted 5 cm despite the occasional snow(ish) shower ... currently snow lying on car only.... perhaps Tuesday will be the day?

Anyhow...

Hawesy you got to let me know

Will it rain or will it snow?

If you say that it will rain

I'll be ‘ Oh no not again!’

So you got to let me know

Will it rain or will it snow?

 

You always tease, tease, tease

You're list of guesses always aims to please

One day it's fine and next it's cack 

So if you want me off your back

Well, come on and let me know

Will it rain or will it snow?

 

Will it rain or will it snow now?

Will it rain or will it snow now?

If it rains there will be trouble

And if I snows then I’ll want double

So Hawesy you gotta let me know

Will it rain or will it snow?

 

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1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

Ok... so what is a good direction for the snow-starved south-easterners - (if you'll forgive me for that horrible lumping collective) is it north-east, a straight east, or south-east, all other conditions being equal, which they never will be...?

I'm the most south-easterner but I am not snow starved. Ask one of the more northern south-easterners :)

 

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2 minutes ago, mardatha said:

We woke up to about 3" of solid hard well-frozen snow. Not melted at all and freezing again tonight. Asda home shopping guy moaned like hell at having to come down our wee steep road :sorry:

Mardatha ...Should’ve gone to Iceland:cold::rofl:

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A few more beefy showers this afternoon, and the cat just came in with white flakes on his coat, so maybe he has a bad case of dandruff! Baltic oot, skies clearing, if that freezes and then we have more snow, it'll be like the dodgems oot there!

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1 hour ago, Northern Strath said:

Liking the look of Tuesday morn

IMG_7014.thumb.PNG.bcd078d1b9701836a4308bbf305ee046.PNG

Ideally christopher blanchett is indicating the size of stick you'll need to measure snow

Hmm as long as that's what he's boasting about :whistling: 

Someone could have said to him, 'Chris, are you sure this is a good idea?'

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Just now, Polar Gael said:

Was well chuffed. First time I'd ever seen them. Braw wee birds. 

Cool. I've only seen them in the Alps - at about 3000m in July, scavenging by a picnic spot at a col, rather like very nervous chaffinches!

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1 hour ago, Northern Strath said:

Liking the look of Tuesday morn

IMG_7014.thumb.PNG.bcd078d1b9701836a4308bbf305ee046.PNG

Ideally christopher blanchett is indicating the size of stick you'll need to measure snow

Nope he was out with sean batty last night  i think he's suggesting the measurement of something totally of topic :girl_devil:

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3 hours ago, Stuart said:

 

 

you wont do that well with a northwest winds I found that out when  I lived there 

Agreed.Wish the BBC proggings were more accurate.They had lots of snow showers for here yesterday.Precipitation=0.Big fail.

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Showers coming in now at a better angle of attack for Glasgow and areas just South and East of there - Ayr also in the firing line still. 

Winds going from W to WSW in the next hour or two - best action looks early hours of the morning but should get more frequent snow showers making it through soon. 

Looks like it’s going to be a long day at work tomorrow after a very late night of snow watching! I would not have it any other way though. :snowman-emoji:

Edited by Mr Frost
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7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Showers coming in now at a better angle of attack for Glasgow and areas just South and East of there - Ayr also in the firing line still. 

Winds going from WSW to W in the next hour or two - best action looks early hours of the morning but should get more frequent snow showers making it through soon. 

Looks like it’s going to be a long day at work tomorrow after a very late night of snow watching! I would not have it any other way though. :snowman-emoji:

Fingers crossed ?

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2 minutes ago, aggy said:

Fingers crossed ?

You should be getting hit any minute if the radar is correct!

Blob over Oban looks like it has Glasgow’s name all over it. (If it does not break up before it gets there!)

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