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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards


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This will get lost amid the avalanche of posts....scuse the pun. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN 7 AND A BIT YEARS I HAVE A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL!  Only a cm mind but a landmar

Let's just start with the money shot - both the ECM and the GFS agree that, as of Wednesday 12pm, the upper air temperatures will be sitting at -14/-15C over most of Scotland, the wind will be pretty

We had a bit of a struggle to get to the hospital this morning, the bus was 20 mins late and the taxi got fed up waiting and had gone. But we got there and hubby had the op, it's not cancer it's just

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Couple of charts ahead of an interesting watch on the system coming through.

First the AMBER warning.. ironic hand clap given have seen written off cars, pics above of lorries driving into houses :cc_confused: , MOUNTAIN RESCUE on the M74.. What? Mountain Rescue??? Madness. Good we have Luke Snowalker and other crazy gritters to detract from the monster clusterfunk that warning issuance was.

image.thumb.png.5e967d379d64f6c3c6890d37a0befc7d.png

Arome flight path for the system as of 2100 - and from here will be interesting to see how the models fair vs the warning area above.

image.thumb.png.9ba232baf24151f4773a32aa7c6c549e.png

RGB Airmass and also the SNAW variable on Eumetsat..

image.thumb.png.dc6528f655295f2b7249ae25cc807ef4.pngimage.thumb.png.8f97289a05ad0073a10806c7b486d966.png

Accumulations by 0500

Arpege / EURO4 WRF 

image.thumb.png.fab2a08b352d7d55eed7bc1a8245eb49.pngimage.thumb.png.0afcbdb1e6b957963fef2788911f68cc.pngimage.thumb.png.71df8238e1cfae00f6d3402cc047f8b9.png

NetWx Model across the early hours.

nmmuk3hrprecip.png (835×715)nmmuk3hrprecip.png (835×715)

So, who wins.... :)

 

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Latest radar has it 200 miles west over NI and as far north as the central belt.  And it's 'growing' ENE.  It also appears to be 2 hours ahead of modelling, so who knows!

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1 minute ago, mardatha said:

We had a bit of a struggle to get to the hospital this morning, the bus was 20 mins late and the taxi got fed up waiting and had gone. But we got there and hubby had the op, it's not cancer it's just a narrowing of the throat so good news after all that horrible waiting :D

Snow down in Gala and Melrose was about 8 inches, and severe weather warning out for us tonight I think. It can snow till June now for me lol cos we been to the hosp and he's ok :yahoo:

That's great news :D

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45 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Couple of charts ahead of an interesting watch on the system coming through.

First the AMBER warning.. ironic hand clap given have seen written off cars, pics above of lorries driving into houses :cc_confused: , MOUNTAIN RESCUE on the M74.. What? Mountain Rescue??? Madness. Good we have Luke Snowalker and other crazy gritters to detract from the monster clusterfunk that warning issuance was.

image.thumb.png.5e967d379d64f6c3c6890d37a0befc7d.png

Arome flight path for the system as of 2100 - and from here will be interesting to see how the models fair vs the warning area above.

image.thumb.png.9ba232baf24151f4773a32aa7c6c549e.png

RGB Airmass and also the SNAW variable on Eumetsat..

image.thumb.png.dc6528f655295f2b7249ae25cc807ef4.pngimage.thumb.png.8f97289a05ad0073a10806c7b486d966.png

Accumulations by 0500

Arpege / EURO4 WRF 

image.thumb.png.fab2a08b352d7d55eed7bc1a8245eb49.pngimage.thumb.png.0afcbdb1e6b957963fef2788911f68cc.pngimage.thumb.png.71df8238e1cfae00f6d3402cc047f8b9.png

NetWx Model across the early hours.

nmmuk3hrprecip.png (835×715)nmmuk3hrprecip.png (835×715)

So, who wins.... :)

 

Which ever ones is best for here ?

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Happy a few of my wild guesses, I mean highly-skilled predictions, on snow totals turned out right! Obviously others were slightly off the mark but it was all just good fun.

I did see some snow on my trip to Edinburgh today which was nice. In fact because I like to get out walking I’ve experienced plenty of snow this winter....just not at home! And you know nothing beats snow at home!:)

Judging by the forecasts I’ll be too far north to benefit from tonight’s event so the wait will go on! Feeling a bit lonely now, I think nearly everyone else on the thread has now at least seen some kind of accumulating snowfall this winter? :D

Edited by Hawesy
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57 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Latest radar has it 200 miles west over NI and as far north as the central belt.  And it's 'growing' ENE.  It also appears to be 2 hours ahead of modelling, so who knows!

Here is the Norway Satellite alongside the surface plot and links if you want to geek it up and track it in..!

image.thumb.png.92bba1f9d3c1a850fba0ca9ffd6b0b1b.png

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa.html

http://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?map=eur_full&date=2018011717&size=large&lang=en&area=eur

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@Hawesy. Didn't measure my snow but think it might have been a little (but not by much) higher than 8cm, it came to the top of my Uggs just outside the house. Fab prediction. 

Couple of pics from the walk to the school bus this morning. 

 

DSC_1044.JPG

_20180117_173420.JPG

 

Edited by snowidea
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40 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I think the heaviest snow will stay fairly far south, I don't think it'll reach me. It'll be south of an imaginery west-east line through Ayr.

Aye think you're spot on there, I just watched a few forecasts and they mentioned disruptive snowfall from hamilton southwards, which is about a half mile north of me, albeit a few miles to the west and they kept stressing the uncertainty regarding the northward extent. But I do agree, think the bulk of the precipitation is southern borders bound. Maybe I'll get a wee inch or 2 though. 

Thursday into Friday looking a bit tasty now though, can see another amber in the pipeline for it in similar areas to last night...

Edited by Ruzzi
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I'm right on the edge of the amber area here in Motherwell but the hourly forecast has only a couple of hours of light snow around 1-3 am so i can't see much more than another dusting on top of what's still on the ground.BBC have a few hrs of heavy ish snow in the early hours of Friday possibly into the rush hour so agree with the above, if it's still the same this time tomorrow it'll surely be another amber.

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4 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Aye think you're spot on there, I just watched a few forecasts and they mentioned disruptive snowfall from hamilton southwards, which is about a half mile north of me, albeit a few miles to the west and they kept stressing the uncertainty regarding the northward extent. But I do agree, think the bulk of the precipitation is southern borders bound. Maybe I'll get a wee inch or 2 though. 

Thursday into Friday looking a bit tasty now though, can see another amber in the pipeline for it in similar areas to last night...

If that happens I plan to sue you, @shuggee @mardatha and a few others for unfair hogging of snowfall during the winter of 2017/18. It will be like the old 7:84 campaign. 7% of the population owns 84% of the snowfall and it’s just not right! :D

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10 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

If that happens I plan to sue you, @shuggee @mardatha and a few others for unfair hogging of snowfall during the winter of 2017/18. It will be like the old 7:84 campaign. 7% of the population owns 84% of the snowfall and it’s just not right! :D

Hey, my 33cms needs a top-up! :drunk-emoji: :laugh:

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