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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
    6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    When you mention the possibility of it being serious next week, are we talking Red warnings ??

    No idea either way. It's more the longevity of the potential snow and cold. Steady light snow or snow showers over four or more days could add up to a lot of snow. 

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    This will get lost amid the avalanche of posts....scuse the pun. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN 7 AND A BIT YEARS I HAVE A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL!  Only a cm mind but a landmar

    Let's just start with the money shot - both the ECM and the GFS agree that, as of Wednesday 12pm, the upper air temperatures will be sitting at -14/-15C over most of Scotland, the wind will be pretty

    We had a bit of a struggle to get to the hospital this morning, the bus was 20 mins late and the taxi got fed up waiting and had gone. But we got there and hubby had the op, it's not cancer it's just

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    Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
    4 hours ago, Ruzzi said:

    Yep exactly, but it comes down to direction of the flow, so if the flow is more NE or NNE rather than ENE then it's more likely to bring the city into the game. But generally a ENE or direct E wind direction it's the likes of West Lothian, north Lanarkshire that get the worst of it. If the flow is strong enough you can get the precipitation making it through towards Glasgow. 

    It is also harder for the snow to settle in Edinburgh city centre due to its proximity to the sea and the fact that it's very low in respect of height above sea level, but with the upcoming set up next week, that won't be an issue, it'll be purely down to where the precipitation falls, no marginality at all by Tuesday/Wednesday. So if the flow were to turn more NE then the city could well get a very good fall 

    TBH a NE flow rarely works here. The sticky-oot bit of Fife breaks things up and it all goes east and south of us. From experience I'd say there's about a 30 degree range on the compass between north east by east and due-east where I'd be sure we'd land something decent. Any other direction and most of it get's stolen by the well-kent snow-thiefs on this forum :D Anyway, I think (hope) we have 48-72 hours next week where we're in the game flow wise.

    Edited by Paul Martin
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Erm......ok!.......:blink2:

    Is this what too much snow does to you?

     

    images.jpg

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    This is me on Sunday morning at work checking that the models have backtracked..

    putersmash.thumb.gif.82ba57367ffab71854d4f4baf5f84638.gif

    Only joking! I am sure we are in for something special next week :D

    545465.thumb.jpg.278dabd13ddc8cf7cf307ab6bd92ad03.jpg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    nmmuk3hrprecip.png

     

    Fun and games look to be starting from about Monday / Tuesday next week. I'll be keeping an eye over the next couple of days to see if we get decent alignment for the Highlands. 

    I wouldn't rule out a fair few surprises further west - in such an unstable and very cold air flow, anything could go down! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    52 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

    I wanted to pop in to wave and say hi anyway, but also with a question...

    If we have 1-2 weeks of severe cold, followed by a colder-than-average rest-of-March, what does that do to UK farming? 

    I don't know enough to know whether soil warms back up again quickly, whether sowing of arable is later than March anyway, whether lambing and other beasts are seriously affected by bitter cold this late on...?

    I know some of you (!) have serious knowledge of this stuff and I'd be really grateful if you can steer me in the direction of some answers...

    Enjoy the snaw if you get snaw! (we got a very abnormal 28cm in 48 hours in early Dec here, oops, sorry, didn't mean to bring it with me when I moved south :) )

    If you go on Meteociel and use the UK GFS charts you can find soil temperatures from there. Charts are "temperature du sol" example below

    5a9027b21ef9a_ScreenShot2018-02-23at14_37_33.thumb.png.574bbf7bb0efef1038fd000eafbb5ba8.png

     

    Edited by ghoneym
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    Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell

    I'm up and down with the snow models in particular.  I know it's a flow in which anything could happen, but most seem to think the Motherwell area (about 83m above sea level) won't do well at all with regards to snow.  Hope I'm wrong of course....

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Absolutely brilliant in this thread - learned so much today and the throwback pictures have been fantastic. 

    Thanks to everyone who contributes - great to have such a wide variety of locations in here. (folk on farms in the Highlands to people living on the coast - really enjoying all the input and have done all Winter)

    My Metoffice APP has now updated to show a heavy snow shower. :rofl: 

    Just look at that feels like temperature though...

    095050ED-CA30-4179-8A61-4F89AFDF0260.png

    9B431967-ED52-4940-B0DD-6A26A44B88FE.png

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

    Wee hark-back to March/April 2013 and why I have no concerns next week about increasing sun-strength, North Sea temperatures etc 

    View ootside the hoose onto the powder snow mean streets of Leith on March 11th. Then the baltic day of March 23rd with temperature stuck at 33F for a solid 24hrs+ with a non-stop 20MPH easterly. Then April 2nd up at Balerno looking out over The Pentlands. Bottom line if its cold enough then there's not a lot that March can do to moderate it all that much.

    537518_129692190546687_2019859253_n.jpg

    487999_134921416690431_40194688_n.jpg

    488169_138433173005922_824115668_n.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    As I mentioned above, plenty time and room for surprises. 

     

    GFS 12hz adds a lot more strength to the feature approaching on Monday night / midnight Tuesday. 

    prectypeuktopo.png

     

    Which in turn means that the snow reaches central / western parts where before there was none. 

    prectypeuktopo.png

     

    Realignment of the Icelandic high means that very low 850hPa temps make it across the whole of Scotland from Norway...

     

    ...compare earlier run:

    Netweather GFS Image

     

    to the GFS 12hz: 

    h850t850eu.png

     

     

    Stay tuned! :cold:

     

     

    Edited by NorthernRab
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    Just now, mardatha said:

    Don't want that one Rab, that leaves me with hardly any snaw!!

    The charts I posted were from 00:00 Tuesday and 9AM Tuesday (the 9am chart to illustrate that the snow may well make it inland).

    Here's 3AM and 6AM

    prectypeuktopo.png

    prectypeuktopo.png

     

    Heavy snow for you :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
    2 minutes ago, mardatha said:

    OOOOO that's better  :D ... so set the alarm for 3am then. Ta muchly :yahoo:

    Not yet! It'll change every 6 hours till then... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland

    Hi guys, was just wondering what you think the chances of me seeing any snow are, I’m just north west of Glasgow by about 15 miles. I am realistic enough to know I’ll miss out on most of it but would be disappointed if I didn’t get at least a wee bit. Cheers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    @hawesy just you forget about march warmth and negative thoughts and concentrate on your snow totals.... i think daily and cumulative predictions are in order so better get a sickie planned :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
    18 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

    Hi guys, was just wondering what you think the chances of me seeing any snow are, I’m just north west of Glasgow by about 15 miles. I am realistic enough to know I’ll miss out on most of it but would be disappointed if I didn’t get at least a wee bit. Cheers.

    Hi and welcome to the madhouse!   BMW hoped you would pay us a visit.

    We are all just watching and waiting really for the runs to firm up.    Personally,  I don't think much  of Scotland (the Western Isles will probably dip out)  will miss out if what is projected hits (and I'm never wrong.):laugh:   The central belt will probably act like a funnel eventually from Forth to Clyde.   You, therefore, are in quite a good position I should think.

    Don't take my word for it though as there are many more better skilled people on here to advise.

     

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

    Just checked the snowfall charts for next week, compared to this morning we are in for even less snow than forecast earlier! Ach well, disnae look like the temps are dropping any though! :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    Navid just checked oot the 12z runs

    tenor.thumb.gif.c0e8b3d1489e2a616f404f5690a1725c.gif

     

    gfs-1-120.png

    UW120-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night

    In 10 years from now, we'll all be standing in the post office queue reminiscing about The Winter of 2018.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    If that GFS comes off...goodbye.

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