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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
    30 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

    Great explanation for a newbie like me. Thanks very much.

    This may explain why places like West Lothian always seems to get a bigger accumulation that the City Of Edinburgh, would that be correct?

    Yep exactly, but it comes down to direction of the flow, so if the flow is more NE or NNE rather than ENE then it's more likely to bring the city into the game. But generally a ENE or direct E wind direction it's the likes of West Lothian, north Lanarkshire that get the worst of it. If the flow is strong enough you can get the precipitation making it through towards Glasgow. 

    It is also harder for the snow to settle in Edinburgh city centre due to its proximity to the sea and the fact that it's very low in respect of height above sea level, but with the upcoming set up next week, that won't be an issue, it'll be purely down to where the precipitation falls, no marginality at all by Tuesday/Wednesday. So if the flow were to turn more NE then the city could well get a very good fall 

    Edited by Ruzzi
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    This will get lost amid the avalanche of posts....scuse the pun. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN 7 AND A BIT YEARS I HAVE A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL!  Only a cm mind but a landmar

    Let's just start with the money shot - both the ECM and the GFS agree that, as of Wednesday 12pm, the upper air temperatures will be sitting at -14/-15C over most of Scotland, the wind will be pretty

    We had a bit of a struggle to get to the hospital this morning, the bus was 20 mins late and the taxi got fed up waiting and had gone. But we got there and hubby had the op, it's not cancer it's just

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night

    https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/7-day/27162~Stirling/7

    I know there's no snow on the forecast - but those temps coupled to a "brisk" wind means it's going to be a Taps Oan day.

    Edited by GraemeB
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    Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m (459ft) asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m (459ft) asl
    52 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

    Great explanation for a newbie like me. Thanks very much.

    This may explain why places like West Lothian always seems to get a bigger accumulation that the City Of Edinburgh, would that be correct?

    I see @Ruzzi beat me too it :)

    There's a whole host of reasons why West Lothian does better than Edinburgh but I wouldn't necessarily count a Forth-Clyde streamer as one of them. Edinburgh can do very well from a streamer (relative to it's low lying, exposed, coastal position) but as it's an easterly based setup it's actually quite a rare thing. A NE flow especially can be great. Anything South of East can be crap. In the more common westerly setups, like we've seen this winter, I'd guess that the main reasons West Lothian does better than Edinburgh is that it's less sheltered, is further west and in general has a greater height above sea level. 

    Being less sheltered West Lothian will generally catch more showers from most directions. Even it's modest altitude can have a huge impact on the amount of falling and lying snow - especially the case with frontal snowfall. A greater height above sea level will also generally mean heavier precipitation than more low lying areas which is why weather warnings will often have far greater accumulation amounts for higher lying areas. Livingston for example is around +150m and many parts of West Lothian much higher than that and so don't suffer the same issues as Edinburgh in marginal setups.   

    Edited by 101_North
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    For Tuesday all the way to at least Thursday, the MetO only have 1 symbol out of 24 for me that's not got a snowflake on it. :shok:

    Mrs SS had me buy a canister for the camping gas stove the morn on Amazon, so it's all likely jinxed now anyway. 

    Sorry folks. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m (459ft) asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m (459ft) asl

    I can only assume that if the rest of the UK had a similar warning system to Public Health England then the entire UK would be Amber!

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    It’s such a nice day today, it feels pleasant in the sun. You wouldn’t think that we are going into the freezer soon. A lot of people who don’t follow the weather are in for a big shock next week :cold::)

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
    1 hour ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Wow!!! ?

    if this comes off it will be carnage, that is some chart !!

    042E56CA-1B3D-4D48-9DE3-E520031DF13D.png

    I'm going from excitement about the snow to starting to think this could be quite serious if it doesn't get watered down soon. I'm up for it but you've got to spare a thought for less able people getting stuck at home or farmers with livestock to look after.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell

    I think a lot of folk will take it with a pinch of salt given that, over the winter thus far, there have been numerous warnings but the actual weather hasn't been as bad.  It's trying to get the message across to the uninitiated just how serious this is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
    19 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    I'm going from excitement about the snow to starting to think this could be quite serious if it doesn't get watered down soon. I'm up for it but you've got to spare a thought for less able people getting stuck at home or farmers with livestock to look after.

    100% agree.

    People I'm talking to are all "AYE RIGHT MATE, WHATEVER, JUST LIKE LAST MONTH AYE?" - and they're completely right.  I feel like that dude who tried to warn villagers about a wolf stuck in a dyke.

    Or something.

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    Posted
  • Location: s.w. of Edinburgh (Currie - 145m / 475ft asl)
  • Location: s.w. of Edinburgh (Currie - 145m / 475ft asl)

    Are we ramping yet ? :)

    A couple of 2010 pics of my street after a few days in an Easterly.

     

    image.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    @Hawesy 

    Consider this for some lucky areas when suggesting snow amounts?

    0AADD17A-3E8A-4F9B-B3C3-1826A43AF4D5.thumb.jpeg.36d267177a4c115e3468974f30420929.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    19 minutes ago, Polar Side said:

    Are we ramping yet ? :)

    A couple of 2010 pics of my street after a few days in an Easterly.

     

    We're into the ramps of biblical proportions stage now I believe.

    Stiles_Masada.001.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Sean Batty tweet/STV latest forecast attached!

    Looking ominous...

    GET IN THERE YA WEE BEAUTY!!!!!!!!!! :santa-emoji::cold-emoji::snowman-emoji::yahoo:

     

    374E5CC9-07AA-42BF-95F2-E6AE246FEFD0.png

    59467E50-1866-4663-9FA2-DCC56814579F.png

    65A2B027-4FE6-4659-A3F8-91A7A299730B.png

    3DE0EA04-C6A8-4A66-898E-F0868F391E75.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

    Right folks I’m going to chuck in some pessimism to the mix to validate my 3 rating on the KTSOS (Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale) :D

    Havent seen much mention of the strong late Feb sun. Had this event (assuming it occurs) taken place a month ago we’d be looking at ice days across the board however I’ll wager that low-lying and coastal areas will creep up above freezing even with <-12c uppers.

    The other thing is that the sun will melt snow even where air temp is below freezing by day. Have seen this in Toronto in March when air temps during the day were around -10c but the strength of the sun still caused considerable melt. Obviously Toronto is much further south than us but the same principle applies. This will make it more difficult for day on day accumulation at low levels...

    Not being negative, I’m  just as excited as everyone else (probably more so as I’m yet to see snow this winter!) but just introducing a couple of factors to consider! :)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
    3 hours ago, 101_North said:

    I see @Ruzzi beat me too it :)

    There's a whole host of reasons why West Lothian does better than Edinburgh but I wouldn't necessarily count a Forth-Clyde streamer as one of them. Edinburgh can do very well from a streamer (relative to it's low lying, exposed, coastal position) but as it's an easterly based setup it's actually quite a rare thing. A NE flow especially can be great. Anything South of East can be crap. In the more common westerly setups, like we've seen this winter, I'd guess that the main reasons West Lothian does better than Edinburgh is that it's less sheltered, is further west and in general has a greater height above sea level. 

    Being less sheltered West Lothian will generally catch more showers from most directions. Even it's modest altitude can have a huge impact on the amount of falling and lying snow - especially the case with frontal snowfall. A greater height above sea level will also generally mean heavier precipitation than more low lying areas which is why weather warnings will often have far greater accumulation amounts for higher lying areas. Livingston for example is around +150m and many parts of West Lothian much higher than that and so don't suffer the same issues as Edinburgh in marginal setups.   

    I don't grudge them getting more than Leith as long as we get 10cms to their 40cms :D You should definitely do well next week in Currie.

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
    1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    I'm going from excitement about the snow to starting to think this could be quite serious if it doesn't get watered down soon. I'm up for it but you've got to spare a thought for less able people getting stuck at home or farmers with livestock to look after.

    I wanted to pop in to wave and say hi anyway, but also with a question...

    If we have 1-2 weeks of severe cold, followed by a colder-than-average rest-of-March, what does that do to UK farming? 

    I don't know enough to know whether soil warms back up again quickly, whether sowing of arable is later than March anyway, whether lambing and other beasts are seriously affected by bitter cold this late on...?

    I know some of you (!) have serious knowledge of this stuff and I'd be really grateful if you can steer me in the direction of some answers...

    Enjoy the snaw if you get snaw! (we got a very abnormal 28cm in 48 hours in early Dec here, oops, sorry, didn't mean to bring it with me when I moved south :) )

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
    3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    When you mention the possibility of it being serious next week, are we talking Red warnings ??

    Not for Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
    1 minute ago, GraemeB said:

    Not for Scotland.

    We don't do red warnings. We don't get snow or cold like they do in southern England :whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
    16 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

    Right folks I’m going to chuck in some pessimism to the mix to validate my 3 rating on the KTSOS (Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale) :D

    Havent seen much mention of the strong late Feb sun. Had this event (assuming it occurs) taken place a month ago we’d be looking at ice days across the board however I’ll wager that low-lying and coastal areas will creep up above freezing even with <-12c uppers.

    The other thing is that the sun will melt snow even where air temp is below freezing by day. Have seen this in Toronto in March when air temps during the day were around -10c but the strength of the sun still caused considerable melt. Obviously Toronto is much further south than us but the same principle applies. This will make it more difficult for day on day accumulation at low levels...

    Not being negative, I’m  just as excited as everyone else (probably more so as I’m yet to see snow this winter!) but just introducing a couple of factors to consider! :)

     

    If you want to see as much snow piling up as possible then it may be a worry - however, it could be very cloudy along the east coast, at least, anyway! 

    If I were over there at the moment, I'd just be happy to have the chance to experience conditions that look like being very unusual for the UK. 

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