Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[ploughboy]

Yikes! 

 

[blitzen]

2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

From the other side of the fence, after 30 years of one partner, to keep your sanity and happiness, keep your own spaces, interests, tastes - too close is a disaster.

Oh I try, believe me I try!     Whenever I feel my sanity being threatened, his space is the bloody shed!    Works a treat!

[Hairy Celt]

5 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Oh I try, believe me I try!     Whenever I feel my sanity being threatened, his space is the bloody shed!    Works a treat!

My sheds are all full of firewood, no cosy little nook with a stash of malts. Helps that me and Ms HC have always had quite different interests. Not completely of course

[blitzen]

2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

My sheds are all full of firewood, no cosy little nook with a stash of malts. Helps that me and Ms HC have always had quite different interests. Not completely of course

Too much information!

You're right tho' - 2 people heading in the same direction, with the same interests,  looking for the same things out of life isn't a good mix. You have to let each other breathe.  My hubby has been a musician for much of our married life which has taken him around the country,  sometimes involving lengthy separations.  Probably why we have lasted so long!

 

[Serac]

Some weird ass MOD focus from many just now. Focussed on a low at end of next week despite day after tomorrow due ... well day after tomorrow. 

Our in bound snowage ferocity seems to be cranking up big style now. 

It begins

[Sawel]

3 minutes ago, Serac said:

Some weird ass MOD focus from many just now. Focussed on a low at end of next week despite day after tomorrow due ... well day after tomorrow. 

Our in bound snowage ferocity seems to be cranking up big style now. 

It begins

Yep, couldn't bite my tongue any longer so had to make a post in there telling some of them to get a grip. 

[Hairy Celt]

3 minutes ago, Sawel said:

Yep, couldn't bite my tongue any longer so had to make a post in there telling some of them to get a grip. 

Probably best not say what I think

Edited February 24, 2018 by Hairy Celt
decency

[Sawel]

They're more obsessed with it being too mild next weekend. 

[Hawesy]

Nice day up around the Cairngorms 

 

[howham]

Nice red sunset yesterday.  I wonder if we'll get another tonight?  Red sky at night, the beast is in sight!

[Ravelin]

Almost as much of a no no as telling your relatives about upcoming snow, but England disappearing in a blizzard already.. A blue blizzard in Edinburgh. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

I take it Fridays chart would still drive showers into the East of Scotland ??

would rather have the convective showers rather than the front from the south 

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

Almost as much of a no no as telling your relatives about upcoming snow, but England disappearing in a blizzard already.. A blue blizzard in Edinburgh. 

A blizzard then rain in the far south of England shire while we stay in a winter wonderland ?

[JoeShmoe]

They are crying into their sweet chariots just now :-)

[Ravelin]

13 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

I take it Fridays chart would still drive showers into the East of Scotland ??

would rather have the convective showers rather than the front from the south 

I would think so. Wind still coming from the East and the 850 temps still look low enough. A lot can and will change before Friday though. 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

22 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Almost as much of a no no as telling your relatives about upcoming snow, but England disappearing in a blizzard already.. A blue blizzard in Edinburgh. 

I'll hold you fully responsible for any jinxing that arises a result of this post.

[Ravelin]

Just now, scottish skier said:

I'll hold you fully responsible for any jinxing that arises a result of this post.

I knew the risks too, just enthusiasm getting the best of me. 

[Hairy Celt]

I've not seen such a huge mass of such cold air approach from the east in the 20 odd years I've been on the Black Isle. Generally with -8C uppers, we get a dull grey boring easterly, with all the ppn stolen by the Cairngorms. Anyone like to offer insight into whether the strength of cold will improve our chances here, or is it going to be a case of 'wait n see, little boy...'?

It's a different story if the ppn comes in off the firth on an ENE or NE gale - we get some of our biggest rainfalls like that, and there was one snow event that caught a lot of folk out, some point maybe around 2001. I don't see that happening this coming week.

[Soaring Hawk]

33 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

I'll hold you fully responsible for any jinxing that arises a result of this post.

COME ON the boys in blue!  Stay calm.

This is more tense than waiting to see if GFS insists on bringing in mild air this week ? 

Will be homeless if ??????? win..

Edited February 24, 2018 by Soaring Hawk
Excitement

[Ravelin]

Phew, got away with it. 

[Stormeh]

YAAAAAAAS! 

[Northern Strath]

45 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

I'll hold you fully responsible for any jinxing that arises a result of this post.

Was never in doubt, the knowledge that @Big Innes Madori would get them telt if they took the lead, proved just too much for the English 

get in Scotland!! 

[Polar Gael]

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

??????????????????

[biggreyface]

And it also looks  like the worst of the snaw and colder temps are going to be in Scotland this week .

I think the big man upstairs  has a wee soft spot for the scots

[A Winter's Tale]

It's very surreal looking at the charts for next week. The sort of Synoptics we're looking usually appear in the long range and occasionally in the semi-reliable (That ECM in 2012) and never transpire. The magnitude of the cold is something to behold with uppers close to -15C and below -10C for a number of days. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=3&day=11&year=2013&map=0&hour=12&type=ncep

I've been looking at some of the archives of previous notable cold spells. The uppers tend to range from -6C to -12C, generally -8C to -10C. Some of the lowest temperatures have occurred without particulary low uppers. A lot of the major cold spells and easterlies have occurred during spells with high pressure predominately to the NW. Many snow lovers (especially south of the border) have heralded and longed for a proper Scandinavian High which has been illusive for over a quarter of century. There have been some fairly potent easterlies (early Feb 2009) but nothing on the scale as what's being modelled for next week. The 11th of March 2013 was pretty potent for eastern Scotland for a brief time. It would appear the last time parts of the UK experienced something like this was February 1991. 

The most notable easterly I've experienced was November 2010, with the 28th being the last event with more than 20cm falling, courtesy of High pressure to the NW like many of the best cold spells in my lifetime. Having read about the hype of a Scandinavian high during my time on netweather it's refreshing and interesting to be on the cusp of the first major cold spell courtesy of a Scandi High during my lifetime. Since following the models in the last seven years, there's a degree of trepidation about getting High pressure to the NE to sufficiently deliver proper cold to these shores (the failed easterly of Feb 2012 springs to mind). Thankfully a different story this time with much of the UK in the firing line. I'm intruiged and excited to see if this spell/set up lives up to the hype and what the end result /impact will be if the potential in the charts transpires. 

This has the potential to be the most potent easterly for Scotland since 1987.

March 2013 was the coldest for over 50 years with most of the cold occurring in the second half of the month - it snowed on consecutive days for two weeks. A cold spell of that duration so late in the season was unprecedented and tore up the rule book for what was perceived to be possible in Spring, just as November 2010 was for autumn. 5 years on and we're nearing the first notable cold spell since then. This time it's more potent and occurring two weeks earlier. This is setting up to be for many the most significant cold spell and severe snow since 2010 - perhaps longer in some places. Just as November 2010 was notable for severe early winter weather this spell could be same for late winter. In the last 20 or so years many of the most significant cold spells have occurred in the first half of the winter with very little of note after mid January with the exception of perhaps 2009 and 2013. March is no stranger to large snowfalls (2006 was the largest I've seen, 2010 and 2013 in other areas) while late February has seen very little notable cold and snow - 2001 the most significant while 2005 saw an easterly. The charts we are currently looking at are extraordinary given we haven't seen a cold spell of this magnitude for some time and it's totally unprecedented this late in the season.

This has the potential to be incredible for some. We are looking at an easterly delivering the coldest uppers reaching our shores in a long time. Despite the North Sea being colder than it was in November 2010, the uppers are much colder and a stronger sun could enhance convection. Some people in eastern Scotland are in for something special from the easterly alone. I'm looking forward to people's reports from eastern areas in what could be a historic event - making up for this winter being much kinder to west for snow. I've had a more than decent fix of snow this winter with lying snow in each month since November, with falls in excess of 2 inches in December and January, but just 2cm this month. It would be nice to get another couple of inches before the end of the month - I don't think I've seen a winter with 5cm in each month - and lying snow in a fifth consecutive month in March - that would be the icing on the cake of a fantastic winter. I'd be more apprehensive following this cold spell if this winter was less productive, however given the potential so tantalisingly close I'm hoping I could be lucky with this cold spell as I was in 2010 with more than 25cm of snow. Since then, only last month saw a total of 10cm of snow, anything more than that would be great. As ever the case with snow in these parts, especially from an easterly, there's a sense of trepidation. The time of year with the colder North Sea and the stronger sun makes me less confident but I'm hoping that there'll be enough convection and other features in the flown to bring the snow to western areas. After the easterly there's the prospect of frontal snow in a breakdown though it's too early to focus on as details and timing will change and we have an easterly to look forward to before hand.

There's the potential for some very cold temperatures aswell. If the SSW had occurred earlier, we'd be looking at potentially the coldest February since 1986. The record coldest March temperature of -22.8C is unlikely to be beaten though we could still see some very cold temperatures over snow fields in the highlands. The coldest maximum of -4.6C is beatable - the BBC are showing highs of -4C in Braemar. At Glasgow airport, the coldest March minimum is -9C, coldest maximum 1C and mean -3C.

Hopefully the fantastic charts keep on coming and transpire to deliver a memorable event for all us. I'm intrigued to see what we end up with if this event delivers and it'll be fun finding out.