Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Sean Batty tweet/STV latest forecast attached!

Looking ominous...

GET IN THERE YA WEE BEAUTY!!!!!!!!!! :santa-emoji::cold-emoji::snowman-emoji::yahoo:

 

374E5CC9-07AA-42BF-95F2-E6AE246FEFD0.png

59467E50-1866-4663-9FA2-DCC56814579F.png

65A2B027-4FE6-4659-A3F8-91A7A299730B.png

3DE0EA04-C6A8-4A66-898E-F0868F391E75.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

Right folks I’m going to chuck in some pessimism to the mix to validate my 3 rating on the KTSOS (Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale) :D

Havent seen much mention of the strong late Feb sun. Had this event (assuming it occurs) taken place a month ago we’d be looking at ice days across the board however I’ll wager that low-lying and coastal areas will creep up above freezing even with <-12c uppers.

The other thing is that the sun will melt snow even where air temp is below freezing by day. Have seen this in Toronto in March when air temps during the day were around -10c but the strength of the sun still caused considerable melt. Obviously Toronto is much further south than us but the same principle applies. This will make it more difficult for day on day accumulation at low levels...

Not being negative, I’m  just as excited as everyone else (probably more so as I’m yet to see snow this winter!) but just introducing a couple of factors to consider! :)

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
3 hours ago, 101_North said:

I see @Ruzzi beat me too it :)

There's a whole host of reasons why West Lothian does better than Edinburgh but I wouldn't necessarily count a Forth-Clyde streamer as one of them. Edinburgh can do very well from a streamer (relative to it's low lying, exposed, coastal position) but as it's an easterly based setup it's actually quite a rare thing. A NE flow especially can be great. Anything South of East can be crap. In the more common westerly setups, like we've seen this winter, I'd guess that the main reasons West Lothian does better than Edinburgh is that it's less sheltered, is further west and in general has a greater height above sea level. 

Being less sheltered West Lothian will generally catch more showers from most directions. Even it's modest altitude can have a huge impact on the amount of falling and lying snow - especially the case with frontal snowfall. A greater height above sea level will also generally mean heavier precipitation than more low lying areas which is why weather warnings will often have far greater accumulation amounts for higher lying areas. Livingston for example is around +150m and many parts of West Lothian much higher than that and so don't suffer the same issues as Edinburgh in marginal setups.   

I don't grudge them getting more than Leith as long as we get 10cms to their 40cms :D You should definitely do well next week in Currie.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm going from excitement about the snow to starting to think this could be quite serious if it doesn't get watered down soon. I'm up for it but you've got to spare a thought for less able people getting stuck at home or farmers with livestock to look after.

I wanted to pop in to wave and say hi anyway, but also with a question...

If we have 1-2 weeks of severe cold, followed by a colder-than-average rest-of-March, what does that do to UK farming? 

I don't know enough to know whether soil warms back up again quickly, whether sowing of arable is later than March anyway, whether lambing and other beasts are seriously affected by bitter cold this late on...?

I know some of you (!) have serious knowledge of this stuff and I'd be really grateful if you can steer me in the direction of some answers...

Enjoy the snaw if you get snaw! (we got a very abnormal 28cm in 48 hours in early Dec here, oops, sorry, didn't mean to bring it with me when I moved south :) )

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

When you mention the possibility of it being serious next week, are we talking Red warnings ??

Not for Scotland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
16 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Right folks I’m going to chuck in some pessimism to the mix to validate my 3 rating on the KTSOS (Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale) :D

Havent seen much mention of the strong late Feb sun. Had this event (assuming it occurs) taken place a month ago we’d be looking at ice days across the board however I’ll wager that low-lying and coastal areas will creep up above freezing even with <-12c uppers.

The other thing is that the sun will melt snow even where air temp is below freezing by day. Have seen this in Toronto in March when air temps during the day were around -10c but the strength of the sun still caused considerable melt. Obviously Toronto is much further south than us but the same principle applies. This will make it more difficult for day on day accumulation at low levels...

Not being negative, I’m  just as excited as everyone else (probably more so as I’m yet to see snow this winter!) but just introducing a couple of factors to consider! :)

 

If you want to see as much snow piling up as possible then it may be a worry - however, it could be very cloudy along the east coast, at least, anyway! 

If I were over there at the moment, I'd just be happy to have the chance to experience conditions that look like being very unusual for the UK. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
4 hours ago, Ruzzi said:

Yep exactly, but it comes down to direction of the flow, so if the flow is more NE or NNE rather than ENE then it's more likely to bring the city into the game. But generally a ENE or direct E wind direction it's the likes of West Lothian, north Lanarkshire that get the worst of it. If the flow is strong enough you can get the precipitation making it through towards Glasgow. 

It is also harder for the snow to settle in Edinburgh city centre due to its proximity to the sea and the fact that it's very low in respect of height above sea level, but with the upcoming set up next week, that won't be an issue, it'll be purely down to where the precipitation falls, no marginality at all by Tuesday/Wednesday. So if the flow were to turn more NE then the city could well get a very good fall 

TBH a NE flow rarely works here. The sticky-oot bit of Fife breaks things up and it all goes east and south of us. From experience I'd say there's about a 30 degree range on the compass between north east by east and due-east where I'd be sure we'd land something decent. Any other direction and most of it get's stolen by the well-kent snow-thiefs on this forum :D Anyway, I think (hope) we have 48-72 hours next week where we're in the game flow wise.

Edited by Paul Martin
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Erm......ok!.......:blink2:

Is this what too much snow does to you?

 

images.jpg

Edited by Blitzen
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

This is me on Sunday morning at work checking that the models have backtracked..

putersmash.thumb.gif.82ba57367ffab71854d4f4baf5f84638.gif

Only joking! I am sure we are in for something special next week :D

545465.thumb.jpg.278dabd13ddc8cf7cf307ab6bd92ad03.jpg

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

Fun and games look to be starting from about Monday / Tuesday next week. I'll be keeping an eye over the next couple of days to see if we get decent alignment for the Highlands. 

I wouldn't rule out a fair few surprises further west - in such an unstable and very cold air flow, anything could go down! 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
52 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

I wanted to pop in to wave and say hi anyway, but also with a question...

If we have 1-2 weeks of severe cold, followed by a colder-than-average rest-of-March, what does that do to UK farming? 

I don't know enough to know whether soil warms back up again quickly, whether sowing of arable is later than March anyway, whether lambing and other beasts are seriously affected by bitter cold this late on...?

I know some of you (!) have serious knowledge of this stuff and I'd be really grateful if you can steer me in the direction of some answers...

Enjoy the snaw if you get snaw! (we got a very abnormal 28cm in 48 hours in early Dec here, oops, sorry, didn't mean to bring it with me when I moved south :) )

If you go on Meteociel and use the UK GFS charts you can find soil temperatures from there. Charts are "temperature du sol" example below

5a9027b21ef9a_ScreenShot2018-02-23at14_37_33.thumb.png.574bbf7bb0efef1038fd000eafbb5ba8.png

 

Edited by ghoneym
.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell

I'm up and down with the snow models in particular.  I know it's a flow in which anything could happen, but most seem to think the Motherwell area (about 83m above sea level) won't do well at all with regards to snow.  Hope I'm wrong of course....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Absolutely brilliant in this thread - learned so much today and the throwback pictures have been fantastic. 

Thanks to everyone who contributes - great to have such a wide variety of locations in here. (folk on farms in the Highlands to people living on the coast - really enjoying all the input and have done all Winter)

My Metoffice APP has now updated to show a heavy snow shower. :rofl: 

Just look at that feels like temperature though...

095050ED-CA30-4179-8A61-4F89AFDF0260.png

9B431967-ED52-4940-B0DD-6A26A44B88FE.png

Edited by Mr Frost
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Wee hark-back to March/April 2013 and why I have no concerns next week about increasing sun-strength, North Sea temperatures etc 

View ootside the hoose onto the powder snow mean streets of Leith on March 11th. Then the baltic day of March 23rd with temperature stuck at 33F for a solid 24hrs+ with a non-stop 20MPH easterly. Then April 2nd up at Balerno looking out over The Pentlands. Bottom line if its cold enough then there's not a lot that March can do to moderate it all that much.

537518_129692190546687_2019859253_n.jpg

487999_134921416690431_40194688_n.jpg

488169_138433173005922_824115668_n.jpg

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Did we lose More Snow? He's been very quiet - is he maybe still buried in snaw up there :shok:?!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

As I mentioned above, plenty time and room for surprises. 

 

GFS 12hz adds a lot more strength to the feature approaching on Monday night / midnight Tuesday. 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

Which in turn means that the snow reaches central / western parts where before there was none. 

prectypeuktopo.png

 

Realignment of the Icelandic high means that very low 850hPa temps make it across the whole of Scotland from Norway...

 

...compare earlier run:

Netweather GFS Image

 

to the GFS 12hz: 

h850t850eu.png

 

 

Stay tuned! :cold:

 

 

Edited by NorthernRab
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Don't want that one Rab, that leaves me with hardly any snaw!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
Just now, mardatha said:

Don't want that one Rab, that leaves me with hardly any snaw!!

The charts I posted were from 00:00 Tuesday and 9AM Tuesday (the 9am chart to illustrate that the snow may well make it inland).

Here's 3AM and 6AM

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

 

Heavy snow for you :) 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

OOOOO that's better  :D ... so set the alarm for 3am then. Ta muchly :yahoo:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
2 minutes ago, mardatha said:

OOOOO that's better  :D ... so set the alarm for 3am then. Ta muchly :yahoo:

Not yet! It'll change every 6 hours till then... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Helensburgh, Scotland

Hi guys, was just wondering what you think the chances of me seeing any snow are, I’m just north west of Glasgow by about 15 miles. I am realistic enough to know I’ll miss out on most of it but would be disappointed if I didn’t get at least a wee bit. Cheers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...