Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[Mr Frost]

Right I’m up to 13% battery now. 

You know what dog biscuits to it I’m coming off the cautious fence! On the 16/01/2018 over ten heavy snow showers came through here from the West and dumped a good 6 inches! Next week they are 100% coming through here again except this time from the East/North East/South East and will dump just as much or even more! It’s going to be a memorable event and as @Ruzzi said lots of late nights once again except this time most of Scotland will be getting pummelled on a daily basis! 

Mon the fuc#ing snow!!!! Do yer worst ya dafty!!!! 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Mr Frost

[Serac]

[Ruzzi]

Just now, Serac said:

That's a 2010 image all over again 

[101_North]

What were we calling these forecasts earlier this winter? One day wowsers or something?

[edo]

11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Right I’m up to 13% battery now. 

You know what dog biscuits to it I’m coming off the cautious fence! On the 16/01/2018 over ten heavy snow showers came through here from the West and dumped a good 6 inches! Next week they are 100% coming through here again except this time from the East/North East/South East and will dump just as much or even more! It’s going to be a memorable event and as @Ruzzi said lots of late nights once again except this time most of Scotland will be getting pummelled on a daily basis! 

Mon the fuc#ing snow!!!! Do yer worst ya dafty!!!! 

ha nice mate.... be confident.... i think plenty gonna make it through to you 

[Ruzzi]

2 minutes ago, 101_North said:

What were we calling these forecasts earlier this winter? One day wowsers or something?

I was literally just looking at them aswell, similar story for here too. I take it they go with the GFS output. 

Also rather amusingly, I have a sleet symbol on Tuesday from the MetO.... I don't  bloody think so ??

Edited February 22, 2018 by Ruzzi

[blitzen]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Many of you will remember this time last year with my preparations for the snow that never came, a big lesson in charts getting it wrong at very short notice. This popped up on my "On This Day" function on Facebook this morning, me sharing my FB weather page post.

It rained all day with not a flake of snow:

I'm sure Fife got some snow that day, @Blitzen I seem to remember you got 3 or 4 inches? 

 

 

 

I'm not sure if this is just one question or two?      

 

 

[TinyTim]

Okay... got to say, that on paper this is potentially the snowiest I'll have ever seen... on paper (beating 2010)...

However, what has got me nervous is that the BBC / Met Office just ain't buying it... the forecast has a paltry few flakes on Wednesday and nothing else at all...

Now, I know this is most likely wrong and that they are conservative in the extreme when it comes to forecasting white stuff (which I totally understand), but it doesn't make it easier when I start fretting that just somehow this will be a disappointment.

Having said all that, I've got my boots at the ready for the first time since 2010, so let's just keep the fingers crossed

Tim

Edited February 22, 2018 by TinyTim

[Sunny Leith]

4 minutes ago, TinyTim said:

Okay... got to say, that on paper this is potentially the snowiest I'll have ever seen... on paper (beating 2010)...

However, what has got me nervous is that the BBC / Met Office just ain't buying it... the forecast has a paltry few flakes on Wednesday and nothing else at all...

Now, I know this is most likely wrong and that they are conservative in the extreme when it comes to forecasting white stuff (which I totally understand), but it doesn't make it easier when I start fretting that just somehow this will be a disappointment.

Having said all that, I've got my boots at the ready for the first time since 2010, so let's just keep the fingers crossed

Tim

Let me say again...take no notice of BBC/MetOffice snow forecasts for east and central Scotland 5,6,7 days away from now. These forecasted synpotics will deliver as long as they actually materialise.

[TinyTim]

3 minutes ago, Paul Martin said:

Let me say again...take no notice of BBC/MetOffice snow forecasts for east and central Scotland 5,6,7 days away from now. These forecasted synpotics will deliver as long as they actually materialise.

Paul

Thank you for the confirmation I am aware that these aren't necessarily accurate, but I've always found them a bit disconcerting when ever other source seems to be saying something different!

Cheers

Tim

[Sam Mithell]

As things stand currently , Definately shows Eastern and south east england will see the brunt of the snow , Just wished we would get at least 6-9 inches of snow here in Perth and also many other areas in scotland .

Edited February 22, 2018 by Sam Mithell

[Sunny Leith]

1 minute ago, TinyTim said:

Paul

Thank you for the confirmation I am aware that these aren't necessarily accurate, but I've always found them a bit disconcerting when ever other source seems to be saying something different!

Cheers

Tim

Aye we'll all nervy here until we're 24-48 hours away from it hitting us Tim.  Right now we're 4-5 days away from it, so enough time for everything to shift 200 miles and leave us cold but dry. But model consistency has been remarkable and I'm a heartbeat away from just outright expectation that it's going to hit us the way we all want it.

[JamesM]

Some amazing charts for next week. I normally don't get too excited about an easterly due to my location here in the west and particularly as I am also a touch too far south for any Forth -Clyde streamers. 

The real exception to that was 2010 and I have a feeling this could also be different with the possibility of features cropping up in the flow and making it right through to the west. Tuesday's fax chart seems to be picking up that idea with a front tracking towards me. 

It looks like the end of next week could be very interesting although I think everything will be much further south than currently suggested.

Anything could happen however and somewhere in the UK it's going to be epic, if not historic. A fascinating spell coming that might really push infrastructure to the limit.

Felt cold today and the car is now frozen even with a brisk breeze.

Edited February 22, 2018 by JamesM

[edo]

with charts like this i think we will all do ok 

of course wont quite pan out exactly but nearly every model shows similar 

[Ruzzi]

No wonder I got into difficulties on this road last month .... unreal!! 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-43157972

[Ravelin]

Warnings being issued already by the Met Office, including down the East Coast of most of the UK....

----

Between 03:00 Tue 27th and 23:55 Tue 27th

Showers or longer periods of snow will affect eastern parts of the UK during Tuesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

----

That sounds rather apocalyptic for a Yellow warning 4 days out, although its currently assessed as 'low likelihood'. Shaping up to be a potentially very interesting week. 

[Mr Frost]

50 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Warnings being issued already by the Met Office, including down the East Coast of most of the UK....

----

Between 03:00 Tue 27th and 23:55 Tue 27th

Showers or longer periods of snow will affect eastern parts of the UK during Tuesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

----

That sounds rather apocalyptic for a Yellow warning 4 days out, although its currently assessed as 'low likelihood'. Shaping up to be a potentially very interesting week. 

Indeed! I am outside the warning area currently but a nice little upgrade from the Metoffice summary going forward. 

I was in an amber warning area last month and got zilch so still very positive about seeing quite a bit of snow here from Tuesday onwards.

Exciting times ahead! 

 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Mr Frost

[trumpage]

I am driving upto Fort William for a weeks holiday on Saturday 3rd March if the charts verify it might be a long challenging journey in my 2wd BMW?  How do those roads usually hold up in the snow.  On the plus side it looks like I might be able to ski straight from my door.  Bought some cheap snow blades for a bit of cross country skiing thinking I might have to carry them half way up the mountain.  Not going by the latest charts!  Snow right down to the lochs!

[GraemeB]

Charts not really backing away from this major cold - temp forecasts for London on Tuesday night look to be around -8c which is going to shock those softie-southerners.

I can see the central belt being absolutely hammered from Tuesday onwards - i just hope Traffic Scotland are already calling in the troops. (figuratively, not literally!)

[Penicuikblizzard]

Looking very Snowy for Scotland next week ??

I can see the yellow warming changing to amber 

[howham]

Don't eat the yellow snow (warning)

[JoeShmoe]

Im meant to be on the east coast train to London tuesday- should be fun 

[Ravelin]

59 minutes ago, trumpage said:

I am driving upto Fort William for a weeks holiday on Saturday 3rd March if the charts verify it might be a long challenging journey in my 2wd BMW?  How do those roads usually hold up in the snow.  On the plus side it looks like I might be able to ski straight from my door.  Bought some cheap snow blades for a bit of cross country skiing thinking I might have to carry them half way up the mountain.  Not going by the latest charts!  Snow right down to the lochs!

Might be just as challenging on some of the roads in England. Obviously it's hard to say at this point as it's still a week away, but since the snow is likely to be coming from the East the last bit on the A82 might not be too bad. They do thier best to keep that road open but it does go over Rannoch Moor, which is pretty high and exposed. 

Depending on timing, you could just as likely have problems on the M6,  the M74, or just about anywhere. If you do make it, the skiing should be good. 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

8 hours ago, Paul Martin said:

Let me say again...take no notice of BBC/MetOffice snow forecasts for east and central Scotland 5,6,7 days away from now...

But I like mine.

It has saw starting Monday evening, then snaw all day Tuesday, all day Wednesday, then all day Thursday again....

EDIT

As per the ECM ecm end of run reload fae the NE, from the GFS ensembles this looks like going on well into march.

Edited February 23, 2018 by scottish skier

[101_North]

19 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Im meant to be on the east coast train to London tuesday- should be fun 

I'll be in the house on Tuesday so your train will be grand until at least Dunbar

(Gotta work hard to maintain my '1' rating)

Edited February 23, 2018 by 101_North