Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[aggy]

Who will have miss any snaw ME !!!! ? everytime 

any one know why the I phone weather app is showing 5-6oc for Ayr next week surely to god that’s incorrect ??  

[Hawesy]

I think it’s time to create the Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale. It ranges from 1 to 10. At 10 we have @Northern Strath who is always optimistic and no expletive wonder because he always has snow. At 1 we have @101_North who still doesn’t believe he’ll see snow even after it’s fallen 

I’d rate myself a 3, cautious and with a healthy scepticism about snow chances at any given time. If someone was to push me into a guess at this stage I wouldn’t be expecting more than 1-3cm for some eastern coastal areas (inc. Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen) through the end of Tuesday. Beyond that I’m not prepared to commit. Yet! 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Hawesy

[Hairy Celt]

6 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The cold spell is slowly coming into range of the higher resolution models.

Here's the ICON for Tuesday, looks promising for the east:

The end result probs won't look like this but it's promising.

That last one can't be right. There's a blob right on my house!

[Hairy Celt]

2 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

I think it’s time to create the Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale. It ranges from 1 to 10. At 10 we have @Northern Strath who is always optimistic and no expletive wonder because he always has snow. At 1 we have @101_North who still doesn’t believe he’ll see snow even after it’s fallen 

I’d rate myself a 3, cautious and with a healthy scepticism about snow chances at any given time. If someone was to push me into a guess at this stage I wouldn’t be expecting more than 1-3cm for some eastern coastal areas (inc. Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen) through the end of Tuesday. Beyond that I’m not prepared to commit. 

I'm probably between you and @101_North - I don't even trust radar or lamp-posts these days, never mid speculative and fantastical ppn charts:  the snow has to be accumulating on my coat sleeves when my hood is up and I have to be outside (to avoid misinterpretation of bad dandruff). Also confirmation by another witness, by affidavit. So I'm open to the truth, but there must be proof.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

9 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

I think it’s time to create the Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale. It ranges from 1 to 10. At 10 we have @Northern Strath who is always optimistic and no expletive wonder because he always has snow. At 1 we have @101_North who still doesn’t believe he’ll see snow even after it’s fallen ..

Where do fit on the scale if you're increasingly negative because you can't help but feel it's going to snow so heavily the airport will shut, screwing up your ski holiday plans? 

[Norrance]

Anyone else spot the aside at the end of the Reporting Scotland weather forecast? I think that she said possible significant snow on Monday. That is earlier than most expected and somewhat surprising from the Beeb.

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

Where do fit on the scale if you're increasingly negative because you can't help but feel it's going to snow so heavily the airport will shut, screwing up your ski holiday plans? 

There's a scale of imaginary numbers for you...

[101_North]

1 hour ago, Hawesy said:

I think it’s time to create the Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale. It ranges from 1 to 10. At 10 we have @Northern Strath who is always optimistic and no expletive wonder because he always has snow. At 1 we have @101_North who still doesn’t believe he’ll see snow even after it’s fallen 

Defined by my westerly based snow potential anxieties!

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

Where do fit on the scale if you're increasingly negative because you can't help but feel it's going to snow so heavily the airport will shut, screwing up your ski holiday plans? 

That’s above my pay grade, SS. What day do you fly out?

[mardatha]

The BBC has for my postcode 2 whole hours of light snow showers on Wednesday, and that's IT. I'm not listening to you lot any more, I'm not playing !!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

21 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

That’s above my pay grade, SS. What day do you fly out?

Och no for a couple of weeks, so snow lovers should hope my worries are founded.

A couple of weeks of blizzards and being snowbound then a short thaw would do me. 

[Sunny Leith]

8 minutes ago, mardatha said:

The BBC has for my postcode 2 whole hours of light snow showers on Wednesday, and that's IT. I'm not listening to you lot any more, I'm not playing !!

I spent most of my time here in the 2009/10 and 2010/11 winters, both had many notable snow events then in Scotland as we all remember. but as we also remember the BBC/MetOffice were regularly wrong about where, when and how much snow would fall. Often they were very wrong even in the 6-12 hours before lots of us got dumped on. They're particularly poor when it comes to easterlies here and virtually any snow forecast they make for here next week I would ignore at this point. If these favourable charts from Mon/Tues onwards come to pass,  I have no doubt we'll see plenty snow in east/central areas, at which point the BBC/Metoffice will play catch up by nowcasting. Which is what we'll all be doing anyway in conjunction with the radar !

[Polar Gael]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

Anyone else spot the aside at the end of the Reporting Scotland weather forecast? I think that she said possible significant snow on Monday. That is earlier than most expected and somewhat surprising from the Beeb.

Saw that - interesting. Not sure I'm seeing that (yet) on the models we can see, but could look different on the charts the pros are viewing - in which case, imminent weather warnings?

 

 

+ + + + +BREAKING NEWS + + + + + 

*  *   *   *  RAMP ALERT *   *   *   *   *

 

That said, strong cross-model agreement now locked in that it's going to turn very cauld indeed for the time of year (possible a few records could tumble) - especially down south.

I know it's easy/mandatory to rip the p*sh out of a lot of the zoomers in the TOORPing thread, but to be fair, the southern contingent have been snaw-starved for several years in a way we kilters cannot imagine up here*.  For them, these charts edging ever closer to the reliable must be like waiting for Christmas when you were a wean (always took forever - time definitely slowed down) - and then having all yer Christmases arrive at once. 

The UKMO chart at 144hrs this evening is ridiculous (in a good way for cauldies). Some decent signs that it could be prolonged as well. Still too far out to nail down the precise snaw detail from the charts but broadly looks like it's game on from Mon - or at the latest Tues.

Then, later on a reload from the north which should give us more cauld and snaw whumphings. 

Some chatter in the TOORPing thread about <-20C across the Highland snowfields by end of next week. Under a slack flow, this looks possible - if we land decent snaw amounts. Touch and go whether we can set a new March minimum record (currently -22.8C, set in Logie Coldstone on 14 March 1958), but this spell does look potent for cauld, so I wouldn't bet against it.  

I'd usually put myself at about a 5 on the @Hawesy  KTSOS, but this winter has been different, so will adjust to a more optimistic 7. 

This cauld spell is definitely more than a snap and background signs could prolong it up here until mid-March. Ski centres will be happy if it keeps on going through to this year's early Easter, too. 

Or, put it another way, there's nae chance of the garden at the PG wee hoose getting any attention other than snawman building and feeding the birds for a good few weeks. 

I'll say it again: winter 2017-18 is a stealth winter that's already crept into the notable category; what's coming next - assuming it delivers as forecast - could see it go out on a memorable note. 

So, keep the sledges handy and say a prayer for the infrastructure in the south-east of England. 

 

*   *   *   *   END OF RAMP  *   *   *   *

 

 

*with a few notable exceptions - you know who you are! 

[Ruzzi]

I don't know where this chart is from, but I like it. It's the 24 hour precipitation totals for Wednesday.... I know, too far out, but suggestion of Scotland seeing plenty more of the action than being mentioned elsewhere. Personally I think some places in Scotland will rival the snow totals down south by the end of the week 

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Oh man, cannae quite believe I'm looking at -10 C or lower T850's for a near a week incoming.

[Ruzzi]

http://veryweather.co.uk/warning-week-of-severe-disruption-likely-as-beast-from-the-east-brings-heavy-snow/

 

interesting read this one, not too much detail but a particular mention about the Scotland central belt ?

[Polar Gael]

3 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

http://veryweather.co.uk/warning-week-of-severe-disruption-likely-as-beast-from-the-east-brings-heavy-snow/

 

interesting read this one, not too much detail but a particular mention about the Scotland central belt ?

And I thought I was ramping...

[Mr Frost]

19 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

http://veryweather.co.uk/warning-week-of-severe-disruption-likely-as-beast-from-the-east-brings-heavy-snow/

 

interesting read this one, not too much detail but a particular mention about the Scotland central belt ?

Funny you mention that...was just looking at the BBC forecast for the Glasgow area and took a wee screenshot of these. 

To be taken with a large pinch of salt obviously but still you just never know. 

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Mr Frost

[101_North]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Funny you mention that...was just looking at the BBC forecast on line for the Glasgow area and took a wee screenshot of these. 

To be taken with a large pinch of salt obviously but still you just never know. 

 

Hope you've a phone charger nearby!

[Hairy Celt]

22 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

http://veryweather.co.uk/warning-week-of-severe-disruption-likely-as-beast-from-the-east-brings-heavy-snow/

 

interesting read this one, not too much detail but a particular mention about the Scotland central belt ?

As you say, interesting. Good to read a 'forecast' that doesn't sit on the fence too much and gives some idea of what might happen without being too worried about the detail.

[edo]

3 hours ago, Hawesy said:

I think it’s time to create the Kilted Thread Snow Optimism Scale. It ranges from 1 to 10. At 10 we have @Northern Strath who is always optimistic and no expletive wonder because he always has snow. At 1 we have @101_North who still doesn’t believe he’ll see snow even after it’s fallen 

I’d rate myself a 3, cautious and with a healthy scepticism about snow chances at any given time. If someone was to push me into a guess at this stage I wouldn’t be expecting more than 1-3cm for some eastern coastal areas (inc. Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen) through the end of Tuesday. Beyond that I’m not prepared to commit. Yet! 

yup thats probably not a bad guess but id maybe go as far as 5 cm in Dundee certainly that and more by end of Wednesday..... based on current output

 

i used to be a 7 or 8 for optimism... recent winters have driven me to a 5 but im pretty confident this spell will deliver

[Northernlights]

Well its a fairly mild  night out there just now with a  fresh southerly breeze at 4c. Things are drying up though as the air is getting less humid

Just noticed  too that the red lights on the windfarm four miles away  are now down to two instead of twelve.Fair fuss created by the locals so they have been replaced with infra red ones.  Even I thought they were they were rather intrusive.

[Ruzzi]

1 minute ago, Hairy Celt said:

As you say, interesting. Good to read a 'forecast' that doesn't sit on the fence too much and gives some idea of what might happen without being too worried about the detail.

Aye, couldn't agree more. One thing is for sure, it's going to get interesting. There'll be sleepless nights a plenty next week for some ? And seen as I'm still off work injured, I'll be happy to do some nightshifts. 

I'll still hang my neck on the fence, and say that the army will be out somewhere in the uk over the next 2 weeks as a result of this. ..... and yes @Polar Gael, it may be another small ramp, a mere speed bump compared to what will transpire next week... sh£t3, there I've went and done it again ??

 

[edo]

11 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Hope you've a phone charger nearby!

@steve murr  battery levels 

[Stormeh]