Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[blitzen]

Model thread's good this evening.......................

 

 

[ciel]

It's been a fine day, all day today. Temps a bit lower than yesterday, but with nae wind and temp around 5 - 6C it was still OK outdoors. And I really appreciate the longer daylight hours now. Spent around an hour or so in the garden this afternoon - quite a a few flying insects around.

There remains significant disparity between the Meto and NW regarding the weekend and early next week forecasts, in my area anyway. The former indicates cold but dry, even wind backing WNW by Tuesday, while the latter forecasts snow from Sunday onwards with generally wind from the east to north east. Much as I try to understand the synoptics etc it is so difficult to understand the detail and different projections without a background of scientific framework.

[Mr Frost]

What a day it has been - just glorious Winter hiking weather.

Made it 650 meters up the Arrochar Alps but decided not to push on any further after seeing a lady with her leg stuck in the snow for a good couple of minutes - had to help her out! Gave me a little bit of a fright! Snow depth is insane - powdery lower down and compacted further up.

So many pictures - sincere apologies but thought you would all enjoy these. 

 

 

[Allyw12]

40 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Oh my! 

 

That's screaming very heavy snow for central Highland. Most of northern Scotland in fact!

 

I hope we all get some snow next week, especially Perth ?

[A Winter's Tale]

As expected the models are showing different solutions for the cold spell, with some shifts south and north and the uppers not as cold as previous runs (for parts of England at least). The charts are still impressive with a very cold easterly and most solutions look pretty decent for snow chances. Eastern areas are looking good for snow in most scenarios being modelled, it's just a question of how much snow will fall and how far inland. At the moment I think even my chances of seeing some snow are quite good although this could change depending on whether the set up is conducive enough for convective snow showers. Some charts have shown the potential for frontal snowfall coming into play, so there could be more oppurtunities for snow if the easterly doesn't deliver. A prolonged cold spell isn't looking likely at the moment but it's too early to be thinking about the breakdown with cold set to arrive next week and hopefully plenty of snow will follow. There's the potential for further upgrades with some recent runs showing very cold upper air in Scandinavia with uppers close to -20C not far away from the Shetland Islands, which is extraordinary for the end of winter.

[Northernlights]

Fantastic day with wall to wall sunshine and no wind. Picked neeps for Spring Show competition in Inverurie next Wednesday and popped them in the garden in case they are buried by snow and if its that bad may not even be able to get them there. Stocking sheds  too with straw bales from the field too so we have access to dryer straw.. Will fill all log baskets in the next few days and get oil topped up so we have cooking and hot water in case the electrcity fails with any heavy snowfall. Currently clear and 0c

[Norrance]

33 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

I hope we all get some snow next week, especially Perth ?

I agree because if you get it then it has already dumped loads here! ?

 

[Hawesy]

 

59 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

I hope we all get some snow next week, especially Perth ?

 

25 minutes ago, Norrance said:

I agree because if you get it then it has already dumped loads here! ?

 

I agree with both of you because that would mean.....oh, you get the gist. 

[Sam Mithell]

Some twit in the mod this morning told me eastern scotland would only see a dusting due to the cold being more prominent down south? Yesterday charts showed us in eastern scotland getting pounded from the 28th onwards , is the twit correct or are we still going to get hammered ? 

[Norrance]

5 minutes ago, Sam Mithell said:

Some twit in the mod this morning told me eastern scotland would only see a dusting due to the cold being more prominent down south? Yesterday charts showed us in eastern scotland getting pounded from the 28th onwards , is the twit correct or are we still going to get hammered ? 

I don't think that he is correct even with the poorer runs for E/ Central Scotland. We will have to wait and see though.?

[Cheggers]

Wet and grey on arrival in Hull, hope to get a wee bit of sun on return Friday before the impending change

[Rickoza]

Would it be fair to suggest here near Motherwell we'll fair well with the Forth-Clyde valley funnelling showers through?

Edited February 21, 2018 by Rickoza
Predictive text error

[Hairy Celt]

These first two across Loch Lochy from the A82 mid morning today. Strange how often these low level clouds will cling to the west side here, probably something to do with the forestry there.

 

 

These are Loch Oich, late afternoon. Loch Oich is still or nearly still more often than any other I can think of...

     

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'd take this set-up.

[Allyw12]

41 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

I'd take this set-up.

Would we see any snow for this set-up? or dry & cold ?

[Stormeh]

13 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

Would we see any snow for this set-up? or dry & cold ?

Plenty of snow, especially for the east

[Ruzzi]

12 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

Would we see any snow for this set-up? or dry & cold ?

Maybe a dusting ? 

Nah in all seriousness, that's a cracking chart for stacks of snow. If that chart gets within 12 hours of verifying consider bringing the snow shovel into the house so you can dig your way out of the front door ?

[Ruzzi]

'Awrite Stevie wonder' 

that's the funniest thing I've seen in there in a while. It'll be deleted by the morning most likely but I probably found it funnier than it really should be ?? 

all in good banter @Stormeh 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Ruzzi

[Stormeh]

1 hour ago, Ruzzi said:

'Awrite Stevie wonder' 

that's the funniest thing I've seen in there in a while. It'll be deleted by the morning most likely but I probably found it funnier than it really should be ?? 

all in good banter @Stormeh 

Haha thanks ? yep just banter ??

[Penicuikblizzard]

Models look better for Easr Scotland this morning ?

[Penicuikblizzard]

ECM is stunning 

[ciel]

Another proper winter morning. Mainly a hazy blue sky, with a few pink streaks as the sun rises, no wind to speak of and a substantial layer of ground fog. Temp -2C.

Scotrailing to Glasgow later this morning to meet up with a young rel. for lunch.  The NW forecast projects a pleasant sunny day there and comparatively mild temps.

[Northernlights]

Fine  dry start to the day here at 0c .

Just musing just now looking at the model thread that the phrase "Be careful what you wish for" comes to mind especially for  those that have not  seen any snow yet this winter as it appears very disruptive snowy weather is on its way.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Northernlights

[grifter]

Wonder if any ppn sneak through to the west, would be good to see, but had snow fix already! Remember 2010/11 i was working in edenburg but through here at wkend, i kept missing the falls in edinburg, then missed the one big dump we got in the west, left about a foot in port glasgow. Came to the conclusion it was me that was the snow shield lol.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

My meto auto forecast is now snaw all day Tuesday and Wednesday..just waiting for Thursday to come into view. 

Some very nice charts out overnight.

GFS op is close to the mean out to early march, so looking good for winter gaun oot wi a bang.

Similar case with the ECM (yesterday's 12z London surface T):

EDIT

Wee occlusion + trough on the fax T120 tae watch.

As we've seen in some of the outputs, little features giving frontal snow could add to the fun and increase chances for western kilters.

Edited February 22, 2018 by scottish skier