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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
2 hours ago, Hawesy said:

I know, me and @101_North should go on a road trip together next week.

Well.... obviously I'll have to let the missus down gently but once the snow starts falling she'll get over it :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

if charts are the same tomorrow im on full out ramp mode.....

that 2010 photo of the playhouse was stunning 

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
23 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

GFS now showing us getting snow falling on and off for over a week, if I'm seeing that right.

Ok, I'm taxiing towards the runway now.

Even allowing for the fact that it's just supercomputers churning out 1's and 0's, I think that GFS 18z has to be the most amazing cold/snow run I've ever seen. It's off the scale. Epic bordering on cataclysmic. Any downgrades to come would make it only moderately severe...

Edited by Paul Martin
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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl

Don't want to ramp, and I haven't caught  Modelthreaditis, but if the 12z ECM or 18z GFS transpired as shown, there are going to some major issues nation wide. 100% army called out as many many towns and villages get cut off, can wave goodbye to bread for a wee while unless it's from your freezer and my bet365 app will be dormant as stacks of football fixtures are postponed with the cup finals getting round to being played in July ... ok I took it too far, but it's homestly getting close enough now where the slight nag in the back of the mind thinks 'oh fluck' 

 

on the other hand, being snowed in on a Thursday night, watching still game, followed by a sesh of lampposts gone wild sounds rather inviting ?

Edited by Ruzzi
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Posted
  • Location: Braemar
  • Weather Preferences: Subzero
  • Location: Braemar
10 hours ago, Norrance said:

Anyone familiar with the Amulree/Glenquaich to Kenmore road?

These mountain bikers came across this yesterday. 

Apparently on Friday the snow was over the bonnet.

Earlier in the Winter on the same road but on the other side. They might still be there. Apparently some Satnavs send people this way heading to Loch Tay. They still had to ignore the warning signs though.

 

IMG_0059.JPG

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Oh how funny. Yeah some cars were stranded up there before the new year after they ignored the warnings. Probably the same ones.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

A high of 12C at Glasgow airport is the eighteenth double digit maxima this winter - as many as December 2015 alone and comparable to the totals of 2013 and 2015. Last winter had 37 highs above 10C, 2009/10 has just 4.

We haven't yet experienced the prolonged cold of other winters and mean temperatures for December and January in Scotland are around average with two sub 3C months for the first time since 2015, with December and January the coldest since 2012 and 2011 respectively. Despite being an 'average' winter in terms of temperature, this is probably the best winter since 2010/11. 2012/2013 perhaps had more prolonged spells of cold weather with more blocking and two weeks of days with consecutive snowfall in March 2013, while the second half of January 2015 had the best part of two weeks of lying snow.

Despite any blocking of note, and before the SSW earlier this month, this winter has seen much shorter and infrequent mild spells in comparison to recent winters with a theme of recurring cold and snow spells. The cold began in November, with many frosts and the first falling and lying snow occurring later in the month. Early December saw the coldest maximum temperature and first White Christmas since 2010, and the largest December snowfall since 2011. January saw the coldest minimum and most significant week of snow since 2010 with snow falling on seven consecutive days. The first snowfall was the largest since December 6 2010, and largest January snowfall in a long time with 9cm. Smaller falls of snow followed concluding with 5cm, bringing the total to 10cm, the largest in January since 2010. This month has paled in comparison, with 2cm on a couple of occasions.

Remarkably, all of the snow has been sourced from the Atlantic rather than an Arctic or continental airmass. Polar westerlies tend to be more frequent than northerly or easterly winds and also tend to be more reliable in delivering measurable snowfalls. The most potent polar westerlies can deliver some of the best snow events with inches of fine snow, while less potent can deliver decent but more modest falls of a few cm, some can deliver very little with either miserable non events with damp, dull windy conditions or more pleasant spells of winter sunshine. This winter has seen a mixture of these characteristics, with greater frequency which had resulted in greater success of the number and quality of snow events. More prolonged or potent cold spells with blocking - possibly aided by the stratospheric warming events - with easterly or northerly winds may deliver deeper cold and snow totals, but this winter has shown you can have a productive and fulfilling winter with more ordinary Synoptics. 

 

It kind of feels strange but I feel quite relaxed about the upcoming cold spell courtesy of time SSW as it feels like a bonus to an already successful winter. Personally, I wish the SSW happened a month earlier, but March 2013 showed you can have a significant cold spell during Spring, and despite the stronger sun, March can offer further snowfall oppurtunities with the biggest snowfall I've experienced coming in 2006.

I've stopped reading the Model Thread after some of the madness earlier in the season until today to see the extreme levels of excitement and the charts on offer. The charts are full of potential, with I presume some of the best Synoptics in a long time (although I recall -15C uppers in March 2013) - especially for parts of England. It's quite remarkable to be looking at an air mass that cold at the tail end of winter though it's less surprising after 2013. After reading some posts in the MT writing off winter because of the illusive easterly, the current charts are a reminder that just as a football match isn't won or lost until after 90 minutes are played, winter can deliver its best and the sort of Synoptics people crave for at the very end or later. 

I'm keeping my expectations low for this upcoming cold spell low in terms of how cold and snowy and for how long. After seeing lying snow on numerous occasions in each month since November, it'd be nice to see some more in March although I'm less fussed after having more than a fair share of snowfall this winter. Easterlies can deliver for Glasgow and western areas, with over 20cm in November 2010, though we tend to miss out on a lot of the action. I'm not expecting much, considering the time of year with cooler SSTs and a stronger sun than In 2010, although the uppers appear to be colder. It'll be very interesting to see what the models show in the coming days and what transpires from this spell. Hopefully a memorable one for many, especially for eastern parts that missed out on a lot of the action this winter.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night

Hmm.

My Winter Ramps have already been packed away for the next 9 months.

I'll just be Victor Meldrew for the coming week.

Bah.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
21 minutes ago, GraemeB said:

Hmm.

My Winter Ramps have already been packed away for the next 9 months.

I'll just be Victor Meldrew for the coming week.

Bah.

So having checked the latest charts....

M8 on Monday afternoon = snowdrift_over_road.jpg

It does look absolutely exceptional, not sure I've seen anything like it in a long time.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Goodness me!  yet another set of runs to salivate over.   Can't remember seeing anything like this before.   Nothing much more left to do other than just take it all in and hopefully watch the predictions unfold.:blink2:

Meanwhile, back at the ranch.........quite a nice morning here.

 

 

static_weathercams.php.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

I've got a week in France skiing booked for early march.

At this rate i should just be able to use the field behind the hoose. 

t850Midlothian.png

:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Morning all!

Stunning output again this morning - oh how I would love to be living in the North East/East or South East of Scotland next week!

In the here and now...stunning day ahead. Not a cloud in the sky here and temperatures set to hit 9 degrees! Spring like indeed - great time of the year when the weather can just flip from todays weather to deep Winter in a matter of days. 

Heading up Beinn Ime at the crack of dawn tomorrow - could not ask for a better day for it! Perfect conditions plus a ton of snow still on the ground above 500 meters. :cold:

Cheers

 

 

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Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
9 hours ago, Benvironment said:

Oh how funny. Yeah some cars were stranded up there before the new year after they ignored the warnings. Probably the same ones.

Reminded me of the German couple who attempted the Lawers road from Glenlyon several winters ago. They got stuck and ended up living with a family in Glenlyon for around seven weeks before they could retrieve it.

Meanwhile if the models verify there is going to be some digging out a lot nearer to home.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
9 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:

A high of 12C at Glasgow airport is the eighteenth double digit maxima this winter - as many as December 2015 alone and comparable to the totals of 2013 and 2015. Last winter had 37 highs above 10C, 2009/10 has just 4.

 

That's interesting. Over here I had three double digit maxima in December, with two just being before Christmas, plus two in late January. These two actually occurred in one evening / night as by day the temp was down again.

None at all in February so far. However with the snow coming in on PM westerlies we have only had a few mostly light coverings. So a bit cooler but less snowy over here?

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl

From a very selfish point of, I'd love a few consecutive days of the flow being every so slightly north of easterly, more a ENE with those -12 uppers or lower in place, and I shall be measuring the snow by the feet ? I've noticed Tuesday keeps flagging up as a favourable day for convection through the central belt and a possible Forth-Clyde streamer. 

Either way, the following 14 days from when the cold arrives, I'm sure everyone will see snow at some point.  

 

Edit: 

i know it's rubbish, but this highlights nicely what I keep looking at, fairly strong flow from a ENE, low temps, low uppers, and snow showers a plenty I would think, packing in through West Lothian towards north and south Lanarkshire 

 

IMG_8250.PNG

Edited by Ruzzi
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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

The model thread is in full ramp mode, as soon as a flake falls in Londonshire then it will be headline news :D 

I think most of us will see decent snowfall over the next couple of weeks. Eastern areas should do very well indeed. I will be happy to get a couple of inches and maybe a ice day or two. In 2010 the Barrhead dams were frozen solid, I would love this to happen again.

711BA136-54A9-4A2B-BD02-BB8D496B014A.thumb.jpeg.0d6f76b709949da379f78998ec459d56.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
8 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Like this but snowier?? :)

Screenshot_20180220-121106.thumb.png.0a8029eafb6367123a1e77391dd67224.png

I'm with you on the slightly north of east wind direction, it puts a grand total of about 18 miles of land between me and hundreds upon hundreds of miles of North Sea.

If these easterly synpotics play out as we hope,  then for east coasters/central scotlanders it always takes a day or two for reality to catch up with these legendarily and confusingly poor precipitation forecasts. Going by previous outbreaks then often nothing better than wintry showers / snow flurries are indicated here on forecasts. I expect by sometime monday into Tuesday then the radar and now-casting will tell an entirely different story :D

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Posted
  • Location: Braemar
  • Weather Preferences: Subzero
  • Location: Braemar
3 hours ago, Norrance said:

Reminded me of the German couple who attempted the Lawers road from Glenlyon several winters ago. They got stuck and ended up living with a family in Glenlyon for around seven weeks before they could retrieve it.

Meanwhile if the models verify there is going to be some digging out a lot nearer to home.

Hmm, I’ll have to try that the next time I want a Perthshire holiday ?

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl

My naturally sunny disposition has me imagining all sorts of disappointment! I can handle crushed hopes from the west but this is something different entirely:rofl:

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