Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[Hawesy]

Decent view at Pinecone Point in Dunkeld today. King’s Seat, not so much! 

 

[Stormeh]

18 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Anyway, let’s face it, this easterly has got France and Spain written all over it....the whole thing will adjust southwards.*

The latest ECM seems to think so 

My money is on the GFS

Exciting times ahead no matter what the outcome is

[Polar Side]

That's it, no more ramping for me after watching the ECM ! ??

[ciel]

I don’t remember the winter of 1987 but have nightmares regarding late February 2001 when living in rural Forfarshire and working in Arbroath.

On a Tuesday afternoon, after leaving Arbroath at the usual time, with just some slush around, I simply was  unable to return home due to ice and snowdrifts making all approaches to my cottage impassable. Eventually, and slightly desperate, called a friend in Aberdeen to scrounge B&B.

The following morning, back in Arbroath I checked out the situation with a farmer neighbour and was advised there had been a slight thaw, the snowploughs had  been out  and the roads were navigable. By early afternoon, there were snowbearing clouds clearly visible to the west of Arbroath and I called the neighbour again. His advice was to get home asap, park my car in his yard and he would tractor me home. I ended up being snowed in for three days with drifts higher than the window ledges and without power for 48 hrs. Fortunately I was able to keep warm and cook using the multifuel stove.

The annoying thing, however, was, that being such a local event, it was difficult to explain the situation to the snow free colleagues in Arbroath and Dundee. Took photos as evidence. 

[Sunny Leith]

1 hour ago, Hawesy said:

Beat me to it. 

Thanks for that info, @Norrance, really interesting. Apparently even Crail did very well in January 87, so it was one for the ages. I still maintain the 50cm in East Kilbride was the biggest snowfall in Scotland  during the Jan 87 event. 

Central Glasgow was just crazy though, never seen snow like it. As I said 35cm in my garden in Kings Park. It was one of the top 2 winter events I experienced in Glasgow (the other being the 5 day December 1995 freeze, culminating in the record -19.8c temperature being recorded at Glasgow Airport). The winter of 81/82 would be the best all-round. 

Anyway, let’s face it, this easterly has got France and Spain written all over it....the whole thing will adjust southwards.*

*I’m employing the reverse psychology strategy, folks. 

Good thinking ! I don't feel confident enough yet to call it from a local perspective. It could still turn out to be a chiefly southerners event or even hold-off to the east... But suffice to say if the models hold true then there's no doubt in my mind we'll see very similar snow impacts and depths to previous easterly outbreaks of this type. They're often heralded by BBC forecasts that don't indicate there'll be much snow here, when the synoptics are screaming otherwise. It's been a permanent blind spot in their forecasting.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Paul Martin

[Ravelin]

I remember Jan 87 too. I was at college in Glasgow then, 2nd year of my course, but living at home outside Airdrie and travelling in every day. If I remember correctly I was due back at college after the Xmas/New year break but was effectively snowed in the village for at least the first half of the week. Didn't venture in to college until the week after. I remember the snow drifting outside our house up to nearly waist level. I'm sure that was the time when the main road past the village, between the M8 & Airdrie was noise to tail with stuck and abandoned HGVs. 

My bedroom window faced East,  over the row of bungalows to the countryside beyond,  so I could watch the showers roll in. I always used to use the low post and single rail fence in the garden as a marker of how deep the snow was, but it didn't take long to disappear that week. Probably one of the events that fermented my ongoing love of snow and extreme weather. 

As for the latest ECM, it's OK, major outlier in its own suite I see, thankfully. Count down continues, but not going to let myself get excited until mid week at least. 

[chemikal]

1 hour ago, Hawesy said:

Beat me to it. 

Thanks for that info, @Norrance, really interesting. Apparently even Crail did very well in January 87, so it was one for the ages. I still maintain the 50cm in East Kilbride was the biggest snowfall in Scotland  during the Jan 87 event. 

Central Glasgow was just crazy though, never seen snow like it. As I said 35cm in my garden in Kings Park. It was one of the top 2 winter events I experienced in Glasgow (the other being the 5 day December 1995 freeze, culminating in the record -19.8c temperature being recorded at Glasgow Airport). The winter of 81/82 would be the best all-round. 

Anyway, let’s face it, this easterly has got France and Spain written all over it....the whole thing will adjust southwards.*

*I’m employing the reverse psychology strategy, folks. 

January 1987 gave me 3 days off school in the west end of Glasgow. I thank you?

I was actually outside at 6am in December 1995 during the -19.8C trying to start the Caledonian Uni van to take the snowboarding club to Glencoe. Battery was dead and we had to go back inside after 5 minutes to warm up. Never experienced cold like that before or since. Jump started the van and got to Glencoe and I remember having lunch at the top of the mountain and thinking how much warmer it was than Glasgow. 

 

 

[Cheggers]

50 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I remember Jan 87 too. I was at college in Glasgow then, 2nd year of my course, but living at home outside Airdrie and travelling in every day. If I remember correctly I was due back at college after the Xmas/New year break but was effectively snowed in the village for at least the first half of the week. Didn't venture in to college until the week after. I remember the snow drifting outside our house up to nearly waist level. I'm sure that was the time when the main road past the village, between the M8 & Airdrie was noise to tail with stuck and abandoned HGVs. 

My bedroom window faced East,  over the row of bungalows to the countryside beyond,  so I could watch the showers roll in. I always used to use the low post and single rail fence in the garden as a marker of how deep the snow was, but it didn't take long to disappear that week. Probably one of the events that fermented my ongoing love of snow and extreme weather. 

As for the latest ECM, it's OK, major outlier in its own suite I see, thankfully. Count down continues, but not going to let myself get excited until mid week at least. 

Jan 1987, I was in Orapa, 200 mile south east of the Okavanga delta Botswana. It was in the mid 40c and had not seen a cloud for almost 2 years. 

Was 2010 for here mostly fed by NE'ly winds?

[jellybaby1969]

Not totally convinced bout this easterly.... Steve murr whipping the model thread into a frenzy. He is more often wrong then right.... 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Polar Maritime
Much more polite.

[Northernlights]

8 minutes ago, Cheggers said:

Jan 1987, I was in Orapa, 200 mile south east of the Okavanga delta Botswana. It was in the mid 40c and had not seen a cloud for almost 2 years. 

Was 2010 for here mostly fed by NE'ly winds?

The initial pulse of cold came in on north east  winds at the end of November as can be seen on my proflle photo when we experienced walls of snow coming up the Firth in what I now understand as lake effect snow. The first day of cold saw clear blue skies coming in from the east and  me following the plough in the last field taking soil samples and watching the soil skin up and freeze in front of my eyes around midday to be followed in the  afternoon by grauple showers and then the next day the walls of snow started coming in to the Firth.

Still cool here tonight with rain and 4c

[chemikal]

56 minutes ago, Cheggers said:

Jan 1987, I was in Orapa, 200 mile south east of the Okavanga delta Botswana. It was in the mid 40c and had not seen a cloud for almost 2 years. 

Was 2010 for here mostly fed by NE'ly winds?

Photos please. ???

[Stormeh]

I found this picture from 1987 searching Google. The picture was taken in a used car lot on shields road in Glasgow. 

[edo]

not been in here as had so many pages over weekend to waft through on MT.... inctedible potential potentially..... remember tell noone aboot this or u will jinx it.... 

traditionally do well here from any easterly direction so everything is crossed for a great end to a winter tbat has promised much but delivered little here although at least got the sledge out 

west defo been best but about to change to east for the beast 

[ciel]

It's quite eerie out there this morning -  silent, still and grey with a layer of ground fog over the fields, temp 4C.

I see from my local meto weather station 7 day forecast that sub-zero daytime temps are anticipated on Sun. 25th.

[blitzen]

Given the law of averages (and sod) I have an uncomfortable feeling that we are going to end up cold and dry with the predicted Armageddon going south of the UK.   Anyone else?

Better for the fields though!

Ditto Ciel...............

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Blitzen

[Ravelin]

21 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Given the law of averages (and sod) I have an uncomfortable feeling that we are going to end up cold and dry with the predicted Armageddon

I think that's just as likely as us seeing significant snow. We could do better if, and it's a big if, the predicted area of high pressure eventually heads off towards Greenland. 

Same weather's as @ciel too, 4C, misty, variably rainy, thoroughly horrible and unexciting. 

[Northernlights]

Well yes i have done it again as soon as I mention the ground drying up down comes the drizzly rain soaking everything again . Currently wetting drizzly rain and 5c

[Hairy Celt]

6C and a bit of a pea-souper by Spean Bridge. Nice.  

[Norrance]

Anyone familiar with the Amulree/Glenquaich to Kenmore road?

These mountain bikers came across this yesterday. 

Apparently on Friday the snow was over the bonnet.

Earlier in the Winter on the same road but on the other side. They might still be there. Apparently some Satnavs send people this way heading to Loch Tay. They still had to ignore the warning signs though.

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Norrance

[Cheggers]

14 hours ago, chemikal said:

Photos please. ???

My stamp upon departure heading back to South Africa for school

On one of rivers off the Okavango I think, might have been the last bit of the Mopipi river, notice still no clouds.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Liking our chances of snow showers starting from sunday 25th if this easterly stays on course 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

55 minutes ago, Cheggers said:

On one of rivers off the Okavango I think, might have been the last bit of the Mopipi river, notice still no clouds.

Spent my formative years (2-7) in the Kano region, Nigeria.

You get proper rain there in the rainy season.

[Cheggers]

1 minute ago, scottish skier said:

Spent my formative years (2-7) in the Kano region, Nigeria.

You get proper rain there in the rainy season.

We saw nothing in Orapa, all our water was underground springs, had to boil and freeze before fit for consumption.

[Northern Strath]

Characteristic of this winter that the snow remains with more cold approaching. Went 3 miles west along the glen at the weekend which got a foot and a half of snow from last week's blizzards. Huge banks of snow casting a shadow over the river with the edges still thick with ice and drifts across half the water's surface in parts. Top road (below) still not passable and the hills showing the wind they have seen 

Garden still has about 17cm cover, it'll probably take a dent over the next couple of days though. As NL has noted, animals are feeling it, have had a Merlin swooping in to take small birds from the garden a few times this season which is a rare sight indeed. It's been a very persistent and potent winter so far and that's without an easterly wind! 

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

21 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

There is loads of snow still even at moderate altitude round here, even one of the snow piles at the end of our road is surviving well.

It may well just be coincidence but for the first time in my life I saw five (Roe) deer together yesterday. I often see two or three but never five. It's been a weird winter in as much as we haven't had a proper weeks long deep freeze but it does seem to have been cold and very icy on a consistent basis. It's a whopping 8C today and I am roasted, heating's off, back door open....

We seem to be spotting more than usual as well. In the past, you might glimpse a couple here and there. Recently, we're seeing up to 7 in groups in the fields around the house.

Oh, and when I left there was still snaw in the gairdin; stuff that's been squeezed to ice with me walking to the shed. Can't see it lasting the next day or two though.

Still plenty up Soutra.

Edited February 19, 2018 by scottish skier