Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[Cheggers]

seems the heavier stuff has turned it to snow, grass getting a slushy covering

[101_North]

Lethal slippy out there again this morning! Obviously had a heavy wet snow shower at some point overnight which has frozen solid! Big white flakes frozen on the grass and visible on the road.

[Hairy Celt]

http://dailygael.com/aviemore-polar-bears-this-is-more-fcking-like-it/

0C and a clear, calm morning.

[blitzen]

Yes, it is slippy out there this morning!

I'm doggy sitting today and daughter brought him down at 8.30am and took him out to the garden.   When I looked out, she was lying flat on her back on the path and the dog was happily scoffing the treats that fell out of her pocket!    God, I wish I had my phone to hand before she managed to get up!  

Does that make me a bad parent?.......Aw who cares, it was hilarious!

3c/1.2c.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Blitzen

[Hairy Celt]

Guys are out with strimmer and gang mowers around the cathedral this morning. The temp here has hit 7C on maybe three days since early December, don't think the grass has grown since mid November...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I looked at the models in order of GFS-UKMO-ECM this morning. So I've gone from disaster winter's over to oh dear winter really is over to OMG it's an Express headline after all "-15C Killer Siberian Beast from the East Snowstorm Hurricanes to Sweep Across the UK".

I looked in a similar order.

ECM ensemble mean T's for London are full of eastern promise.

GFS ensembles past 3-4 days are all over place; T850's of-15 or +7!

As it stands, I'll get my snow fix soon with a week in la plagne, but I'd take a last tartan icy blast before spring. Just as long as it doesn't interfere with my holiday flight!

Edited February 16, 2018 by scottish skier

[DR(S)NO]

13 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Guys are out with strimmer and gang mowers around the cathedral this morning. The temp here has hit 7C on maybe three days since early December, don't think the grass has grown since mid November...

Our local cemetery is lucky now if it gets the grass cut 4 times a year..... cost cutting and all that!...(infact nice borders became weeds, then grassed over as they can’t afford to weed!)....

anyhow, if it’s grass cutting day, it’s grass cutting day and no rain, sleet, snow or ice will stop them......

oh, or common sense doh....

 

[101_North]

Ventured into the model thread  Some of those folks would be absolute torture in the bookies! 

[ciel]

A fine weather, but working, day. With sunshine, little wind and temps around 6-7C it felt quite pleasant. 

The Bennachie range from the Newburgh - Ellon road.

I always find Bennachie incongruous and strange rising as it does from flat pastoral countryside.

[Hairy Celt]

33 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Beast awakens!!! Absolute corker of an easterly from the ECM in la-la-land:

"Aye, but it'll be dry..."

Don't quote me!

[edo]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

MILD OUTLIER

CHAOS IN SE ENGLAND

its all happening........ the come downs gonna be epic or i should see some cracking snow

 

win win 

[Mr Frost]

Good morning all!

Hope everyone is well. 

Well what a way to end the Meteorological Winter season this would be - perfect chart for me personally but snow all over different parts of Scotland for days on end on the latest GFS run.

Most models and the Metoffice long range outlook all looking very wintry as we head into March - if it comes off like they are predicting I would go as far to say this has been the greatest Winter I have ever had. (every month has delivered - really has been exceptional so far and the best could be yet to come, especially for all our Eastern members on here from North to South!)

Have a good weekend!

 

 

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Just to add to the post above, @Hawesy could this be end to the drought?? If these synoptics don't do it then nothing will. You say you need 850s of -10C or more, at one point the 925 temps are -10C. Surely....

Yeah, it has 503 dam and -15c 850s for Leuchars for 1st March. Pretty decent.  

Im not a sceptical person by nature except for one thing: easterlies delivering for Scotland in the world of weather models.  

Its not that I don’t think they can deliver, the single greatest snowfall I saw in 30 years of living in Glasgow was courtesy of an easterly (January 1987)....15” of snow falling in the city centre with a steady temperature of -5c is not something you forget! My scepticism comes from the 9/10 times such easterly events get watered down so that we end up with a few miserable days of a cold SEly breeze, grey skies and temperatures of 3 or 4c by day or night. This time may be different of course but until I see it modelled at T+24 I will go against my nature and remain sceptical! 

[Ravelin]

I'm also holding fire on any excitement with regards to the potential upcoming easterly. I've the feeling that it is equally likely to be a damp squib as it is to give scenes from Narnia. 

The MOD thread is a hoot this morning though. Yesterday's ECM was so extreme it was a once in a lifetime run, and just the single run after many "meh" runs. So this morning people are moaning incessantly that the latest ECM run is a "downgrade", when frankly it was always going to be a downgrade compared to the previous one. Some in there are beyond belief. 

[Hawesy]

9 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I never realised you lived in Glasgow, I lived in Glasgow in 1987 although I was only 8 going on 9 at the time. That was some day, we ended up off school for a few days after that. 

I was 16. Have never seen anything like it at low levels in this country, particularly because it was fine, powdery, dry snow blowing about in -5c daytime temperatures. 15” where I lived in Kings Park and 20” up at East Kilbride. I got the official snow depths from the old Met Office office in Glasgow for my Higher Geography project! As often in easterly set-ups the north side of Glasgow saw significantly less snow.

[Stormeh]

I live in the southside of Glasgow and have always done well from Easterlies. My love of weather started because of an Easterly. I remember in the early 90s when I was about 6 or 7 and looking out my window which faces east watching heavy snow shower after heavy snow shower coming towards me and dumping lots of snow. I think most of the UK does better with a easterly, can anyone explain why that is? Cheers

 

[Hawesy]

2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Fewer mountains to kill the precipitation? 

Do you remember the snow in January 1993? It snowed heavily and drifted even in Glasgow during the day, might have been the 13th but I would need to check.

I remember that. Feb 91 as well, that delivered!

[Serac]

Arf

[Hawesy]

I’m not sure easterlies often deliver as far as Scotland is concerned. SE of England certainly and that’s why it’s the holy grail for folks down there. In January 87 Glasgow got the best of the snow in Scottish terms because of upsloping along the Forth-Clyde valley. Many areas of Scotland saw little or no snow in that event and I think that’s often the case in an easterly or south easterly ( NEly is different). The other factor is that with a long sea track the air really does need to be cold to get snow in winter....more so in Scotland than in SE England where the sea track is much shorter. In general I would say only the eastern borders, parts of the central lowlands and east coast do well from a cold easterly or south easterly (but of course quite a lot of folk live in those areas so you are probably right in terms of population!). Of course outside of winter it’s a miserable wind direction for those same areas with cold grey skies and the risk of haar! 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Hawesy

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Ok, so I was making up a batch of screen wash for the next week or so and I had to choose between -5 C bog standard frosty February and -10 C taste of a decent beasterly. 

I hedged my bets and went for -7.5 C.

Hope that hasn't jinxed anything.

 

EDIT

In terms of what delivers... and Easterly can be ok for me, but the best is a classic carpet bombing Nor'easter.

Edited February 17, 2018 by scottish skier

[Hairy Celt]

23 minutes ago, Serac said:

Arf

Bone dry, mark my words.

[Northernlights]

Am going to say it again and hope it stays  dry but ground is drying up again with several tractos/ploughs out in fields  in the area. Even a field of straw from harvest 2017 was being baled this afternoon in lower Moray after all the drying winds of the last few days.Quite a surreal sight.

If even half the severity of cold being forecast comes off in the next few weeks  then agriculture is going to take a big hit some winter crops in SE England are 6 inches high after a very benign winter and if they get severe frost without much snow cover then they will really suffer. Up here it would increase the amount of feed being consumed by livestock when a big shortage already exists so a late spring is most definitely not needed this year Currently overcast and 4c.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Northernlights

[Hairy Celt]

9 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Am going to say it again and hope it stays  dry but ground is drying up again with several tractos/ploughs out in fields  in the area. Even a field of straw from harvest 2017 was being baled this afternoon in lower Moray after all the drying winds of the last few days.Quite a surreal sight.

If even half the severity of cold being forecast comes off in the next few weeks  then agriculture is going to take a big hit some winter crops in SE England are 6 inches high after a very benign winter and if they get severe frost without much snow cover then they will really suffer. Up here it would increase the amount of feed being consumed by livestock when a big shortage already exists so a late spring is most definitely not needed this year Currently overcast and 4c.

So I'll be seeing you at Pets at Home then - me getting catfood, you trying to cut a deal on guinea pig food for the coos... It is odd seeing partly snowy fields being ploughed. Many fields still very wet on the Black Isle but I guess the ones being ploughed will be the better drained ones.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Hairy Celt

[Stormeh]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Fewer mountains to kill the precipitation? 

Do you remember the snow in January 1993? It snowed heavily and drifted even in Glasgow during the day, might have been the 13th but I would need to check.

Yes maybe that’s the one I am thinking of. It would be great to get something similar sometime over the next few weeks. What is the best site to check the chart archives?

[Stormeh]

47 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

We're one epic ECM away from this being nailded on.

 

London and the SE would come to a standstill