Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

[blitzen]

Snowing lightly for the past 1/2 hour.  1.1c/-5.6c

.

 

[Norrance]

Here too. Just a few flakes in the air. A snow falling day?

[frogesque]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

Snowing lightly for the past 1/2 hour.  1.1c/-5.6c

.

 

Few flakes here too, nothing dramatic yet.

[Cheggers]

as with others we have falling Snaw, about 5 flakes an hour, but still Snaw. Doubt it will add to the sheet white ice still left from Monday night.

[Hairy Celt]

22 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The latest charts are cool to cold, we'll see what the ECM spits out soon but we've got snow chances coming at us on a regular basis. Friday, Sunday, Tuesday...take your pick. It's not a consistent deep freeze but where's the fun in that? 

Would be nice to get a week of deep freeze but cool to cold is a good second best. Especially with repeated snowy bits.

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I might almost prefer cool to cold with snow chances rather than a deep freeze, am I that fussy?? Not sure

 

If deep freeze excludes snow, then it's no use. But if there's snow in the deep freeze then you don't worry about your existing snow disappearing overnight. Like a fair bit will tonight - not for me, I don't have any... Also I suppose being a coastie means I need lower temps than all the sensible folk inland and up hills (even small hills).

Also I like deep freeze, ie successive ice days, because you get these photogenic ice formations on burns and ice bulges on hillsides - and frozen lochs and lochans - like Loch na Ba Rhuaidhe north of Drumnadrochit this morning.

(Ms HC reckons I should find myself a howf up in the hills somewhere - she'll bring me supplies when she's not too busy...)

Edited February 7, 2018 by Hairy Celt

[grifter]

Was very light flakes falling most of the afternoon, about 10 a minute lol, came on a bit more about 5 ish but was more rainy and some flakes, now just rain!

Edited February 7, 2018 by grifter

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Same pattern of consistent ultra super light snaw flakes here too.

If you concentrated what's falling over the whole of lauderdale onto my back garden, would probably give me a mm or so of a fresh dusting.

[shuggee]

Snowed most of the way home in the car and a covering in previously melted areas. Was even settling in Straiton Sainsbury's car park!

 

[frogesque]

Out with dog, +2C in the car. Light breeze, no more snow but very raw feel. Hands freezing with gloves on. Not good for the nether regions.

Edited February 7, 2018 by frogesque

[Cheggers]

just back from a booze run, car said -1 and it's raining, roads are as I said to Mrs, a giggle 

Edited February 7, 2018 by Cheggers

[101_North]

Temp on the rise and the wind is picking up. As others have said there was a wee bit of light snow falling earlier. Looking ahead I can see wintry stuff forecast on Sunday potentially - that'd be right as I'm away again

[edo]

has @More Snow really abandomed us because of the model thread

 

cmom more snow return ye cannae move up here for snaw then abandon yer snow buddies

 

think we should start taking it in turns to buy 101 plame tickets to get him oot rhe country and help our snow chances

[igloo]

A lot milder this morning up here  with the temp at 3.2c i havent seen those types of temps for the past 5 days or so most of the snaw has melted also al hell will break loose in the MOD thread if this SSW event doesnt deliver its not like we need it up here anyway there is more on the way for us at the weekend anyway

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

A balmy 4c in Dundee and 5c in Leuchars this morning. Still looking like snow showers will deliver a covering for many in the west tomorrow, away from the coast and with modest altitude!

Heres a question: why does GFS seem to consistently model colder 850 temperatures than ECM during cold snaps (it may well do at other times too and I’m just not paying close attention ). It’s normally a couple of degrees but of course that can make a huge difference in forecasting rain or snow. I should really look at the verification stats to see if it’s not just my imagination. It seems weird that there would be such a consistent discrepancy.

[Hairy Celt]

@Hawesy - it does all year round. I popped the question in the MT years ago and there was no clear, correct answer. Maybe someone else may know now though.

(this is like an amazon answer, 'sorry, can't help you, I bought it for a friend...') 

[Norrance]

3.6C here and cloudy. Snow Gone from my back garden.

Forecast this morning said that there is the possibility of a low pressure system developing later on Saturday bringing a period of heavy snow to Scotland. Any thoughts on this?

I would look at the model thread but they are too busy arguing about the possible Easterlies at 178 hours + to notice this.

Edit. Just had a look and see that Knocker does mention it in the short term model thread but doesn't make too much of it.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Norrance
Update

[101_North]

11 hours ago, edo said:

think we should start taking it in turns to buy 101 plame tickets to get him oot rhe country and help our snow chances

Nice thought and I'm happy to take one for the forum occasionally - but remember that my large, hairy ass will need 2 seats on most airlines

[blitzen]

27 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Nice thought and I'm happy to take one for the forum occasionally - but remember that my large, hairy ass will need 2 seats on most airlines

We're looking into crowdfunding as you speak!

[Stormeh]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

3.6C here and cloudy. Snow Gone from my back garden.

Forecast this morning said that there is the possibility of a low pressure system developing later on Saturday bringing a period of heavy snow to Scotland. Any thoughts on this?

I would look at the model thread but they are too busy arguing about the possible Easterlies at 178 hours + to notice this.

Edit. Just had a look and see that Knocker does mention it in the short term model thread but doesn't make too much of it.

I was also trying to find out but cant see anything!

I am very interested in this SSW though and how it can POSSIBLY affect the UK but before that we have Sunday and Monday to look forward to with a cold north westerly bringing heavy snow showers to the west. Uppers look pretty decent to me and winds may become more westerly bringing showers well inland

There maybe even a few surprises in the early hours of tomorrow morning but it does look short lived.

As igloo said, if this SSW doesn't deliver then avoid the MOD thread

[Big Innes Madori]

11 hours ago, edo said:

has @More Snow really abandomed us because of the model thread

 

cmom more snow return ye cannae move up here for snaw then abandon yer snow buddies

 

think we should start taking it in turns to buy 101 plame tickets to get him oot rhe country and help our snow chances

Eh, was More Snow no the 2016 Central England Hide & Seek Champion?

Fk sake, we'll nivir fund um

A' right then Mair Snaw come oot,  wi gie up noo!

 

Big Innes

Edited February 8, 2018 by Big Innes Madori

[Hawesy]

2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

@Hawesy - it does all year round. I popped the question in the MT years ago and there was no clear, correct answer. Maybe someone else may know now though.

(this is like an amazon answer, 'sorry, can't help you, I bought it for a friend...') 

Cheers HC - it seems odd that there's such a consistent difference and that whatever it is in the 'programming' that's causing it hasn't been addressed. I always err on the side of caution (i.e. ECM)! 

[101_North]

15 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I was also trying to find out but cant see anything!

I am very interested in this SSW though and how it can POSSIBLY affect the UK but before that we have Sunday and Monday to look forward to with a cold north westerly bringing heavy snow showers to the west. Uppers look pretty decent to me and winds may become more westerly bringing showers well inland

There maybe even a few surprises in the early hours of tomorrow morning but it does look short lived.

As igloo said, if this SSW doesn't deliver then avoid the MOD thread

Does anyone know the last time a SSW delivered for the UK? I'm curious as I know it pops frequently in discussion but I'm struggling to think of a firm example of it leading to Narnia. Was March '13 caused by a SSW? Certainly seen articles online suggesting it was but mostly sources I don't trust 

[Stormeh]

5 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Does anyone know the last time a SSW delivered for the UK? I'm curious as I know it pops frequently in discussion but I'm struggling to think of a firm example of it leading to Narnia. Was March '13 caused by a SSW? Certainly seen articles online suggesting it was but mostly sources I don't trust 

Yes I am pretty sure 2010 and 2013 were due to a SSW. I am only just starting to understand how a SSW works so I think @lorenzo is the man to ask

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, Stormeh said:

Yes I am pretty sure 2010 and 2013 were due to a SSW. I am only just starting to understand how a SSW works so I think @lorenzo is the man to ask

You're right there I think. 2010 was epic, 2013 was crap, speaking NIMBYly.

Oh dog biscuits, it may have been 2009, not 2010.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Hairy Celt