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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards


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38 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

@Rocheydub looks like you’re going to get a direct hit next week! Party at yours?

Also-f*****-lutely! Can't wait for this. My kids are all old enough now to remember actually building a snowman in the garden. It's the little things really.... That and I just love walking in fresh snow!

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I have never seen so much snow in my life like today,I was trying to reach my friend who lives in  Manor Kilbride on Sally gap road(Wicklow Mountains)  to give him a lift to the shops as he spent last

Lovely record breaking morning from West Wicklow, we have got an inch or two on the ground

But but but... Who'd collect for the many charities, or sing in the gospel choir on Sunday mornings? What happened out there was premeditated looting. It's disgraceful. Shocking and abusing the f

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45 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Are you talking about Ireland or just Northern Ireland because it looks good for the whole East Coast of Ireland and central areas to a certain extent. Obviously NW areas at the moment prob will not see much in the initial stage but should improve later 

Ireland has a whole Neiller.

In a North Easterly the short sea track between Scotland and Ulster counties will lessen the probabilty of big convective showers. The further South you go in the island the longer sea track that's on offer.

 

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Ireland has a whole Neiller.

In a North Easterly the short sea track between Scotland and Ulster counties will lessen the probabilty of big convective showers. The further South you go in the island the longer sea track that's on offer.

 

Dry for east of northern ireland  then by looks of it. Models look great for us for snow but prob back track nearer the time. Met office mention accumulating snow possible on tuesday

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1 minute ago, Neiller22 said:

Dry for east of northern ireland  then by looks of it. Models look great for us for snow but prob back track nearer the time. Met office mention accumulating snow possible on tuesday

Not dry, I think we will see snow, just not the intensive snow that the SE of England will get for example, more of frequent light snow type.

 

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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not dry, I think we will see snow, just not the intensive snow that the SE of England will get for example, more of frequent light snow type.

 

That will do me because that sort of snow can accumulate quite nicely. Hopefully change to heavier snow if a wee streamer takes hold. :D:D

  PS  Nice we update from Met Eireann though !

"It will turn progressively colder from Tuesday onwards with severe frosts and with snow showers becoming more widespread. Some disruptive accumulations are likely especially in the east and southeast. Met Éireann will be issuing snow/ice warnings.

 

Edited by Neiller22
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dont buy into this convective craic, few times this year we had -8 uppers in the north west, over a very warm atlantic, and the radar was always just sporadic, i think our snow chances lay in the kinks in the isobars, so troughs/fronts popping up in the flow. last nights fax chart looks very good for the north east

image.png.ed12a3cbf42f077e58125d47722df29a.png

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Afternoon all,

Long time lurker who’s been thoroughly enjoying the buzz of this thread over the past few months.

Next week is currently looking like it will be quite exceptional. Snow showers aplenty for many of us with a good risk of more organized potential later in the week.

Met Eireann have just issued a yellow warning, expecting severe cold and disruptive snowfall, extending to the 2nd March. 

This event has gained serious traction across the all model suites over the past number of days and I for one am taking note. Come Sunday when some of the finer details are being ironed out I think I’ll be racing around stocking up on food, fuel and beer.

Something truly memorable may be afoot and I hope all of you guys get to enjoy. ?

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I've got a 40 pint barrel of home made mead in the garage. Also about to put 40 pints of strawberry and pear cider into a barrel. There is a sofa in the garage and a small gas heater so if you're going to get snowed in that's the place to be!

 

good luck folks. I always like this but as we watch for what is about to happen. What will we get? It's winter weather and I'm more than happy with that regardless of snowfall amounts.

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4 minutes ago, Baltic Regions said:

I've got a 40 pint barrel of home made mead in the garage. Also about to put 40 pints of strawberry and pear cider into a barrel. There is a sofa in the garage and a small gas heater so if you're going to get snowed in that's the place to be!

 

good luck folks. I always like this but as we watch for what is about to happen. What will we get? It's winter weather and I'm more than happy with that regardless of snowfall amounts.

I remember my last NE/E and not much snow was forecast. What happened? Showers started popping up everywhere in the Irish Sea and we ended up with snow after snow after snow showers. A good lot of this snow will not be forecast until the day or hrs before. It will be radar watching. Exciting times that's for sure. But what will be will be in the end of the day! Beers in fridge though just in case.

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Wednesday before the cold air proper gets here as in ice day. On Tuesday highs of 3 to 5, 3 for Dublin, 5 over here. Wednesday/Thursday possible ice days.  Friday slightly warmer still ice day for some possible. 

 

Still 5 days away from the Coldest of the air. 5 days is a long time in weather. If I lived on the east Coast I'd be more optimistic, cautiously so given how long away it is. 

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The Mod thread is completely bonkers. Yest they said to ignore all snow acc / forecast charts because they are not worth the paper they are written on. Now its showing snow in their location and they are 100 % accurate and quotes flying everywhere about how much snow they are going to get. Unreal 

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22 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

The Mod thread is completely bonkers. Yest they said to ignore all snow acc / forecast charts because they are not worth the paper they are written on. Now its showing snow in their location and they are 100 % accurate and quotes flying everywhere about how much snow they are going to get. Unreal 

Boards.ie is even worse, stopped reading it. The Met office warning for East of UK up until 23.55 Tuesday  mentions accumulations of 0-2cm, with potential for 5 to 10cm locally. 

Edited by BlastFromThePastbuzz
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1 hour ago, Hegzyy said:

dont buy into this convective craic, few times this year we had -8 uppers in the north west, over a very warm atlantic, and the radar was always just sporadic, i think our snow chances lay in the kinks in the isobars, so troughs/fronts popping up in the flow. last nights fax chart looks very good for the north east

image.png.ed12a3cbf42f077e58125d47722df29a.png

But the air will be sub -10 degrees with the Irish sea having higher temperatures than the North West Atlantic, therefore higher lapse rates and more convection potential. 

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1 hour ago, Hegzyy said:

dont buy into this convective craic, few times this year we had -8 uppers in the north west, over a very warm atlantic, and the radar was always just sporadic, i think our snow chances lay in the kinks in the isobars, so troughs/fronts popping up in the flow. last nights fax chart looks very good for the north east

image.png.ed12a3cbf42f077e58125d47722df29a.png

Wasn't there -11 about two or three weeks ago, a Tuesday I think. Was every little away from the Atlantic coast. 

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14 minutes ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:

Boards.ie is even worse, stopped reading it. The Met office warning for East of UK up until 23.55 Tuesday  mentions accumulations of 0-2cm, with potential for 5 to 10cm locally. 

Yeah. Pressure is a bit high and doesn't begin to drop until later Tuesday, so precipitation is really limited up until then. I'm remaining dubious of any snowfall atm. It wouldn't take much of a shift for everything to go a bit wonky. Its still 5 days away, subtle changes can make huge differences, even for those in Eastern and Southern mainland.

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here is the ECM snowfall totals in inchs. A few strange posts regarding convection potential What is the issue? .  For the eastern coastal counties and along the south coast it is exetmely likely. -35c at 500hpa , -12/-14 850hpa , SST's at 8/9c and strong east flow in sfc of  pressure 1024 mb with the 501 DAM touching the east coast 1987 levels right there.  

ecm.png

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12 minutes ago, rory o gorman said:

here is the ECM snowfall totals in inchs. A few strange posts regarding convection potential What is the issue? .  For the eastern coastal counties and along the south coast it is exetmely likely. -35c at 500hpa , -12/-14 850hpa , SST's at 8/9c and strong east flow in sfc of  pressure 1024 mb with the 501 DAM touching the east coast 1987 levels right there.  

ecm.png

Yes, this shows exactly the areas I was referring to earlier, it is common sense really that those areas exposed to the direction the wind is coming from will get the most snow. 

Unfortunately for me, this chart shows the winds in the worst possible direction with the very short sea track across the North Channel where as areas North and particularly South of me will do very well.

Look at the streamer from the Solway Firth into South Down / North Louth, the longer sea track provided by the Solway Firth increases the snow potential.

 

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46 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:

Yeah. Pressure is a bit high and doesn't begin to drop until later Tuesday, so precipitation is really limited up until then. I'm remaining dubious of any snowfall atm. It wouldn't take much of a shift for everything to go a bit wonky. Its still 5 days away, subtle changes can make huge differences, even for those in Eastern and Southern mainland.

I presume your're talking about Bangor,Watcher?

It's clear that some areas will see plenty of snow, ALL models are agreed on it and I can see no reason why they would change now.

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4 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

You just need the smallest of changes MS and ur so in the game. All to play for. Don’t lose hope. I think u will do quite well. 

It's nothing to do with hope, just reality of how the chips look like following. Initially, the cold blast looked direct Easterly but is now North Easterly.

I'm hoping that towards the end of next week as the low pressure from the South pushes up that the wind flow angle changes to more of a South Easterly.

Who knows, there might be disturbances in the flow that haven't been picked up yet to give a surprise or two to someone.

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Easterly flow tends to form streamers due to the winds crossing the landmass of England which causes convergence of winds doesn't happen in westerlies. As you can see on the map I provided one north of the isle of man and one south , (isle of man causes divergence)  and one along the extreme south coast .Snow levels quickly build up with  often falling up to 3 cm per hour in the strongest convection.

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