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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

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Wow some buzz on the Model thread which is great to read, impact for us in the West not a   clue but surely you folk in the east should do well?

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1 hour ago, snowydog said:

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/weather-northern-ireland-to-avoid-siberian-blast-as-britain-braces-itself-for-big-freeze-36630425.html

What’s he on about? Doesn’t make sense to me? I thought it will be very cold and potential for snow on east fuelled by Irish Sea?

What a load of rubbish.

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What a load of rubbish.

I was going to go into a detail specific rebuttal of that article, but your 5 word retort was succinct!

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I think they are trying to say that although it will be cold, we aren’t going to see any snow. 

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32 minutes ago, gingercat said:

I think they are trying to say that although it will be cold, we aren’t going to see any snow. 

Certainly plausible, especially so up to late Thursday into Friday next week. Pressure remains above 1020mb until then so snow is reliant on convection in the Irish sea pushing well inland. Its best to get the cold in first, surprises could pop up on the short range for snow potential.

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2 hours ago, snowydog said:

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/weather-northern-ireland-to-avoid-siberian-blast-as-britain-braces-itself-for-big-freeze-36630425.html

What’s he on about? Doesn’t make sense to me? I thought it will be very cold and potential for snow on east fuelled by Irish Sea?

It sounds like they are either playing it safe or somebody was misquoted. There is still some uncertainty on how cold it will become.

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1 hour ago, The Weather Watcher said:

Certainly plausible, especially so up to late Thursday into Friday next week. Pressure remains above 1020mb until then so snow is reliant on convection in the Irish sea pushing well inland. Its best to get the cold in first, surprises could pop up on the short range for snow potential.

It was the reference to the Irish Sea providing attention that I was rubbishing not the potential for it to be dry.

The reality is of course that wind direction will determine who gets snow or not. If it's NE than Central and SE counties will do well, it is SE than NE counties do well.

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7 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

And a great set of runs this morning, UKMO back on board! GFS goes off on a bender in FI bringing SWl’ya back in, but this very much goes against all it previous runs enem in GEFS. No concerns at all.. Big ECM coming up now!

Yes I was worried yesterday that HP would stay too close to our north resulting in cold but mainly dry conditions. However the clear trend for last few runs is to see Ireland hit by a direct easterly with very low uppers, thicknesses and dew points. The Irish Sea should act as a snowmaker once the deep cold gets in early next week. Also risk of more organised snow pushing up from the south later. If current charts verify this could be a spell to rival some of the most potent in the last 30 to 40 years. Amazing considering we are almost in March. Areas most prone to snow would be eastern counties initially but risk likely to become more widespread once cold gets entrenched. As ever always the risk models are over egging things but you get the feeling that all the pices of the jigsaw are coming together now for a memorable event. Exciting times....

PS temp only 5.5 degrees here today in cloudy skies and very brisk southeast wind. The continental feed is already starting to take effect. 

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5 degree max here today under soup grey skies. Very cold feel even without the wind!

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4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

What a load of rubbish.

I would say that is a fairly accurate prediction to be fair. This weekend will be dry and cold as will Mon and most of Tues bar the odd snow shower in the East. He mentions the possibility of snow into March which is when the models are showing the most snow possibilities for us popping up. 

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Depends how strong an easterly hits us. I’m not saying we won’t get snow I’m just saying i don’t think it’s going to be as much as some people think for us this far west. But if convection does happen it could be great for snow chances  especially in the east. Just to early at the minute to call in relation to snow. But at min dry and cold is s good shout for me up till Tuesday avo. 

Edited by Neiller22

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2 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

5 degree max here today under soup grey skies. Very cold feel even without the wind!

Yes,I suppose today is the very start as such. Dry air from the continent making its presence felt.

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ICON, UKMO & GFS all have the upper heights a bit further North, therefore there's a better chance of more snow on these runs.

The runs have upper air of -13ish in the middle of next week which must be pretty rare for the beginning of March.

Snow or no snow, it's going to be absolutely bitter.

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2 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

Depends how strong an easterly hits us. I’m not saying we won’t get snow I’m just saying i don’t think it’s going to be as much as some people think for us this far west. But if convection does happen it could be great for snow chances  especially in the east. Just to early at the minute to call in relation to snow. But at min dry and cold is s good shout for me up till Tuesday avo. 

Mmmmm....Can i change my snow chances after those runs!!:D

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Tuesday 9am the fun starts out east and continues for most of the week. 

I think at this stage people will be to tired to enjoy next week after all the easterly chasing, ramping and toy throwing.....but the beast is coming and I’m looking forward to it

C0197E7F-8C8D-49BF-B664-E9ED6A9F7C57.png

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Roche's point here on the south coast experienced record 12 cm of snow in 1987 from a snow streamer . It the gfs/ukmo comes off I feel that the record may go. Exceptional charts! 

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I'm not too excited about this in North West Mayo in terms of snow, looks very good for the East. One fear I have with ECM, the cold pool never really reaches far off the immediate NW coast, was more room for error last run.   A small correction against us and I fear the worst. Further south and east look safer. 

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1 hour ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:

I'm not too excited about this in North West Mayo in terms of snow, looks very good for the East. One fear I have with ECM, the cold pool never really reaches far off the immediate NW coast, was more room for error last run.   A small correction against us and I fear the worst. Further south and east look safer. 

I think you’ll be grand, we all will.....get them sledges polished and the tins of spam stacked up

3BF0CC5A-46B6-4CFE-B8D0-BFD117552248.png

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image.thumb.png.1521b801e7862070335d4caca6856371.png

 

that is incredibly cold week for my area next week, ECMWF main run closely matching the ensembles, from Monday until Saturday the 850hPa never makes it above -8 degrees! That beats 2010 December in my view

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