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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards


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I have never seen so much snow in my life like today,I was trying to reach my friend who lives in  Manor Kilbride on Sally gap road(Wicklow Mountains)  to give him a lift to the shops as he spent last

Lovely record breaking morning from West Wicklow, we have got an inch or two on the ground

But but but... Who'd collect for the many charities, or sing in the gospel choir on Sunday mornings? What happened out there was premeditated looting. It's disgraceful. Shocking and abusing the f

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30 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

2m temperatures at day 8 and 9 are rubbish (even at short range they are too) and quite frankly everything at that range is rubbish the FI isn't gospel..

Well the point is, we were to be sub zero by day with the GFS a couple of days ago -2 for most. That's pushed back and now nowhere is FC to see it that cold by day with the GFS. I didn't say it was gospel but certainly doesn't look as cold as it was. Cold and dry nothing exceptional. 

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I always felt tomorrow and Friday are the crucial days imo regards the modelling of the cold spell or more correctly the start of it.  The more serious business regards the models starts tomorrow.

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46 minutes ago, sundog said:

I always felt tomorrow and Friday are the crucial days imo regards the modelling of the cold spell or more correctly the start of it.  The more serious business regards the models starts tomorrow.

Just said pretty much that on the MOD... Some amount of b1tching going on over there! Like a cat fight!

Edited by Rocheydub
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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Selective there Boofer. Why not the GFS and Arpege?

Just picking the better verification model at the time, ARPEGE looks further South than them all does it not?  the ECM started the shift South a few days ago hopefully it brings it North the night.

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2 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

Havnt posted at all with reference to this easterly because to be honest I’m far from convinced it is going to be that bad at all. As with most easterlies and the reason  we rarely have them is because they generally get watered down, don’t make it here as they are not strong enough or basically hit Europe instead. I still feel regardless what models are showing this will he the form horse. Yes it will get colder but I don’t see bucket loads  of snow or mass blizzards and people being cut off. Clearly I hope I’m wrong as one final blast would be nice but to be frank I’m so looking forward to spring now. But maybe once the phantom will show it’s face but sadly I don’t think that severe an easterly is inbound. 

I agree

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12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Ok. See you two next Winter then.

Ah MS that’s a tad harsh. He’s only saying what he thinks may happen. Like me I’m sure he would love a dollop of snow but just a bit concerned the high is a bit south keeping us out of the game a tad and more cold and dry than cold and snowy. That of course could happen but so could dry and cold. Anyway I agree the ECM is a cracker. Hope it verifies. 

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I would suspect this warning will be extended in coming days.

i would also suspect ice warning be issued by Friday for most, snow warnings a major possibility also based on tonight’s models.

Talk of more warming and the affects it could have, I would be of the opinion get the first cold spell in place first.

27546BFA-27FD-46C3-AA12-710528223F25.jpeg

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YAY! Fixed my heater boiler!!! Roll on the cold shtuff! Extra coal and logs bought just in case.

Going to put up the Christmas lights in the outside tree (white lights look deadly on snow covered trees... I'm gonna jinx this, aren't I!!!

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4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

YAY! Fixed my heater boiler!!! Roll on the cold shtuff! Extra coal and logs bought just in case.

Going to put up the Christmas lights in the outside tree (white lights look deadly on snow covered trees... I'm gonna jinx this, aren't I!!!

Yay good.  Mine decided to pack in yesterday ahh.  Hopefully nothing major. It mad a whining sound then stopped. Won't come on!!  Got the fire going.  Thankfully have that lol. It's got a back burner so heats the radiators and water. 

Ps love the Christmas lights under snow.

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1 hour ago, Weegaz said:

I would suspect this warning will be extended in coming days.

i would also suspect ice warning be issued by Friday for most, snow warnings a major possibility also based on tonight’s models.

Talk of more warming and the affects it could have, I would be of the opinion get the first cold spell in place first.

27546BFA-27FD-46C3-AA12-710528223F25.jpeg

Those warnings are only produced for England. 

Another 18z snowfest.

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1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

Bonkers 18z snow fest! Likely hood of happening. Zilch! 

GEFS certainly messy with all those shortwaves. The positive for me though is that the majority of GEFS ensembles have a direct hit of cold uppers and therefore higher snow risk. Very consistent with this so hopefully the UKMO will revert to high pushing further north in future runs, as currently it shows cold but dry with high pressure too close. ECM mean very good this evening but again a little nudge north of the high on ECM would see the coldest air with low thickness levels hitting Ireland and with it better snow prospects. Hopefully the models converge on this in future runs to give us a spell to remember.  

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And a great set of runs this morning, UKMO back on board! GFS goes off on a bender in FI bringing SWl’ya back in, but this very much goes against all it previous runs enem in GEFS. No concerns at all.. Big ECM coming up now!

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