Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

[Weegaz]

I’d be happy with this, snow on ground Christmas morning hopefully 

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

I’d be happy with this, snow on ground Christmas morning hopefully 

I think that's where our focus has to be now as the Easterly looks a bit of a blink and you'll miss it affair, especially for us out West. A decent number of 0z ensembles have potential for snow around Christmas Day and it would be good for that trend to continue.

[Rocheydub]

I thought you lived in east NI? County Down ?

[mountain shadow]

50 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I thought you lived in east NI? County Down ?

I do? Why?

[Weegaz]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I do? Why?

I think rochey was querying as in previous post you said us out west, but west of uk and Ireland, east of Ireland.

 

[mountain shadow]

Aye, I was talking about the West in terms of the West of GB & NI. 

[somofagun]

Brexit has corrupted ur mind MS  

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Up the West

[booferking]

Merry Christmas that would be..

[somofagun]

That's pure christmas day porn right there

[booferking]

These Easterlies are hard work and 90% of time a pile of poo poo pants battleground Thursday odds on the wet stuff dont reach us now while the cold air just gets in place then the battleground for Saturday the cold air will be slowly weakening while Atlantic comes in classic Easterly fail..

[Weegaz]

This weekend looking a bit more long winded than first thought, the Atlantic seems to be being held back allowing the colder air to progress westwards further?

Possibility of some here getting some sought after snow?

[mountain shadow]

Not looking great for a white Christmas unfortunately.  Any strat help looks like being pushed back into the New Year.

Still time for a change and will give it a couple of days before throwing in the towel.

Atlantic mild looks like dominating for now. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Booooo

[booferking]

Scandi high/Easterly if i hear about one in that model thread again top row is coming clean out that's all they talk about in there like its some godsend that delivers everytime #failpileofshite and the height rises towards greenland around xmas are getting dropped more and more every run going to be a long winter season. Model fatigue setting in rather early this year for myself.

Edited December 11, 2018 by booferking

[Neiller22]

Just a hunch. But I think this winter is going to be dreadful if it’s snow ur after. But plenty of rain a wind I feel. Making up for past 6 months of lack of rain. It always evens out. 

[mountain shadow]

No change to my green and wet Christmas thoughts at the moment, will give it another 24 hours though.

Zero sign of any cold spell at present although the teleconnections gurus seem confident of something starting to show up soon.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Meh

[booferking]

FV3 Para going for colder weather to set in just before Christmas day one to watch that's 3 runs in a row from 18z last night some with back edge snow as cold front clears..

Edited December 12, 2018 by booferking

[sundog]

Well the likelihood of something happening in the strat near the end of the month fills me with hope.  Perhaps it will make or break this winter. Could be a very interesting Jan. 

The para is something to keep an eye on atm regards to Xmas cold but I reckon we will have to wait till after Xmas. 

Edited December 12, 2018 by sundog

[booferking]

33 minutes ago, sundog said:

Well the likelihood of something happening in the strat near the end of the month fills me with hope.  Perhaps it will make or break this winter. Could be a very interesting Jan. 

The para is something to keep an eye on atm regards to Xmas cold but I reckon we will have to wait till after Xmas. 

Yep has been documented for sometime now that January onwards should bring the goods SSW, LRM etc but there is background signal for height rises out west beforehand which could bring joy for Christmas after all its 8 years since are last white Christmas and we average it every 6 years #weareoverdue

[Mixer 85]

Hello all. Haven’t popped in here for a while, so was pleased to find a few pages of very enjoyable content.

I’m quietly confident with regard to potential cold during the festive period. Paying attention to certain folk on the mod thread/strat thread whom I wouldn’t consider to be typical rampers has me believing that we may be on the cusp of an exceptional winter. Teleconnections looking favorable for renewed blocking around Christmas, with hopefully enough oomph and in a location that would deliver the goods. With a bit of luck the models will start showing  stronger signals of this in the coming days.

Following on from this, there’s a lot of musings about a wave 2 SSW later in January which could  certainly deliver the goods for a good lengthy period. I keep thinking back to a post from GP back in early November I believe “think of it like a lorry about to jack knife” (wrt to the polar vortex)....well to that I say YES PLEASE!! and hopefully the icy load comes spilling down on top of us!!

Anyway, still all to play for and plenty of time to play too. Hope you all are well and feeling festive.

Micheal  

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Nice post Michael

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Some positive musings in the MT this morning 

[booferking]

So there you have it the height rises out west around Christmas are increasingly turning into another scandi high