Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

[snowydog]

I just read from one of the posts in the model thread that one of the posters think Northern Ireland has heavy snow potential.

[lzo]

Ye couldn't forecast snow 12 hours away. I just look at radar and expect a surprise.

[Bottled Snow]

1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

Dublin going to be crippled :o

Yes the east and southeast in the firing line  However I expect showers to push across the country at times in the strong easterly wind. So anywhere could see snow by midweek. Excited now....Been waiting years to see a true beast hit our shores again and this looks almost on a par with the 1987  beasterly. That buried much of the eastern half of Ireland in feet of snow.  Living in the southeast, I was lucky enough to experience its full force. The snow showers were so frequent that even as the sky cleared as one shower passed through there were snow flakes tumbling down as the next shower followed on its heels. This lasted for 3 days followed by 2 dry cloudy days before mild southerlies took over. That was the only disappointing thing about the 1987 spell that unlike Jan 1982 or Dec 2010, a freeze never followed the snow and it soon turned milder with rain. Would love to see a Jan 87 repeat next week but with an extended cold period thereafter. I kept records of Jan 87 and have  studied charts ever since. I honestly  believe the synoptics next week will run that spell close for severity, irrespective that we are later in the season.     exciting times and hopefully everyone gets in on the action..   and all that before a possible frontal snow event later next week....         

Edited February 24, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[BlastFromThePastbuzz]

Whatever happens next week it's a nice exciting end to the Winter season. Although winter could go on for a long time in to March who knows. 

[BlastFromThePastbuzz]

Met eireann website. Even in April you can get severe snow that lasts for days. East Clare, not a place you'd normally associate with a blizzard in Ireland. 

 

[Bottled Snow]

6 hours ago, Bottled Snow said:

Yes the east and southeast in the firing line  However I expect showers to push across the country at times in the strong easterly wind. So anywhere could see snow by midweek. Excited now....Been waiting years to see a true beast hit our shores again and this looks almost on a par with the 1987  beasterly. That buried much of the eastern half of Ireland in feet of snow.  Living in the southeast, I was lucky enough to experience its full force. The snow showers were so frequent that even as the sky cleared as one shower passed through there were snow flakes tumbling down as the next shower followed on its heels. This lasted for 3 days followed by 2 dry cloudy days before mild southerlies took over. That was the only disappointing thing about the 1987 spell that unlike Jan 1982 or Dec 2010, a freeze never followed the snow and it soon turned milder with rain. Would love to see a Jan 87 repeat next week but with an extended cold period thereafter. I kept records of Jan 87 and have  studied charts ever since. I honestly  believe the synoptics next week will run that spell close for severity, irrespective that we are later in the season.     exciting times and hopefully everyone gets in on the action..   and all that before a possible frontal snow event later next week....         

well after viewing the charts this morning I have no reason to change my mind re above post. If anything, todays charts are even more extreme and snowier .....

[mountain shadow]

Great model  runs for central and South Eastern counties, somewhere is going to get mullered. 

For Northern counties, mainly dry with some light snow. 

[Neiller22]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Great model  runs for central and South Eastern counties, somewhere is going to get mullered. 

For Northern counties, mainly dry with some light snow. 

Yes my initial fears of 4 or 5 days ago look more of a reality for the north. Not much snow about. The best easterly in years and The east still can’t manage to get decent snow. I think I am officially giving up of ever seeing any decent snow here in my lifetime! ?

looks like that Belfast telegraph article on the north staying generally  dry is bang on the money. Nearly every met office region forecast is for disruptive snow except you guessed it, Northern Ireland. You couldn’t make it up really. You have got to laugh. ?? hopefully change but i doubt it now. Though met eireann say disruptive snow possible in northern counties?? How can it be so different. Strange. 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Neiller22

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

First snow symbols showing up in the meto automated forecast for Omagh for next Friday not getting above freezing from Wednesday 

[Aliaalu]

Cut and paste from Metalert Ireland in Facebook just now.  Hope they are right ?

 

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
TIMELINE: MON 26TH FEB TO SAT 3RD MARCH +
AREA: NATIONWIDE
HIGH RiSK AREA: LEINSTER, EAST ULSTER, N TO E MUNSTER
We continue to urge the public to call in on elderly/vulnerable neighbours and ensure they are aware of the severe cold and severe weather outlook over the course of the coming 7 or more days. Ensure fuel, food and medication stocks last a minimum of 7 days.
We have upgraded our advisory from 70% risk to 100% risk of severe weather with severe disruption likely in high risk areas mentioned above.
Daytime weather values will gradually get colder with Tuesday to Sat the highest risk days of disruption. Highest temps will remain sub zero in many areas by day with areas under snow cover seeing even colder temps of -3c to 0c. Nighttime values will see lows of -4c to -10c with coldest values where snow cover exists. Where no snow cover exists temps will range by day 4c to 1c. 
The windchill factor by mid week through to Saturday will be exceptionally cold with feel like values ranging from -5c to -12c by day in a brisk easterly wind. 
In terms of snow and accumulations we expect between 5cm to 10cm daily from Tuesday through Saturday but this will depend on your location and due to the nature of sea streamers it will be a nowcast situation and these approx amounts are only a daily guideline of what to expect and are subject to change at short notice.  
We will begin to roll out individual advisories for each day from Sunday (tomorrow) evening. 
Lastly its essential our pets are kept indoors during the coming week.
We are aware that government bodies (OEP, HSE, DOD, DOH)) and several charities have plans in place for our homeless citizens. Check with your local TD(s) for further information. 
Lastly continue to monitor your national and local weather forecast over the coming 7 days as this is an evolving weather situation and will be subject to change even at very short notice. Make sure your home/business is winter ready before Monday evening.
NOTE: This cold weather outbreak could last well beyond next weekend. 
#SEVEREWEATHER #IRELAND #TAKEACTION

[SnowJon]

We have a weather warning people and it sounds good!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-28

Between 00:05 Wed 28th and 23:55 Wed 28th

Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Showers will bring a large variation in amounts of snow across even small areas with some places seeing very little snow. There is the potential for 10-15 cm of snow in places where showers become more frequent whilst nearby locations may see much less frequent showers and only small accumulations of 1-3 cm in places. Strong winds will lead to drifting of snow, and lightning could be an additional hazard, particularly near North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel coasts. By the end of Wednesday, more than 20 cm may have accumulated in places in some eastern counties of England, Scotland and Norther Ireland from a culmination of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's snow showers.

[Neiller22]

Yes meto now have warning out for weds for Northern Ireland too. Basically eastern counties. Said there could be up to 20cms in eastern counties of Northern Ireland!! Don’t get it as there text forecast this morn was utterly crap. 

[rory o gorman]

Snowfall accumulations for Ireland by next friday  

[Neiller22]

Pinch of salt with those I’m afraid. Those charts had me in purple in my last NW. result? I had 2 snow showers! 

[rory o gorman]

Yes totally, but interesting to see what the depths its showing here in the south.  

[parrotingfantasist]

Not a pinch more of a bucketful. Earmarked us for the worst of PMs, just got a dusting. One lesson from this winter lmao

[Missdolly]

Not weather related but would like to wish Ireland Good Luck today in the six nations ! Our favourite neighbours across the Irish sea ?

?????????

[BlastFromThePastbuzz]

52 minutes ago, Missdolly said:

Not weather related but would like to wish Ireland Good Luck today in the six nations ! Our favourite neighbours across the Irish sea ?

?????????

Haha thanks Molly. Good luck to Wales. Should be a great game?

[Fergie]

From IWO.

OUTLOOK ... The first three or four days of March could see a severe snowstorm developing, as most guidance shows a strong Atlantic low trying to push away the cold air but failing in that, looping around south of Ireland for up to two days before drifting away to the east. That will bring an extended period of snow, strong northeast winds 60 to 100 km/hr, and continued very cold temperatures in the range of -3 to +2 C. There could be brief mixing of sleet or ice pellets into this storm near the Wexford coast but at the moment it does not appear likely to change the snowfall over to liquid forms anywhere else, amounts could be extreme in this scenario, so as this is not a confirmed outcome yet, I am just going to say keep in touch with forecasts and be aware of the potential for very heavy snowfall amounts and severe disruption. Even if this Atlantic low happened to stay a lot further south and not impact the cold spell, other likely outcomes would be cold, windy and snowy in their own ways.

[Fergie]

12 hours ago, Bottled Snow said:

Yes the east and southeast in the firing line  However I expect showers to push across the country at times in the strong easterly wind. So anywhere could see snow by midweek. Excited now....Been waiting years to see a true beast hit our shores again and this looks almost on a par with the 1987  beasterly. That buried much of the eastern half of Ireland in feet of snow.  Living in the southeast, I was lucky enough to experience its full force. The snow showers were so frequent that even as the sky cleared as one shower passed through there were snow flakes tumbling down as the next shower followed on its heels. This lasted for 3 days followed by 2 dry cloudy days before mild southerlies took over. That was the only disappointing thing about the 1987 spell that unlike Jan 1982 or Dec 2010, a freeze never followed the snow and it soon turned milder with rain. Would love to see a Jan 87 repeat next week but with an extended cold period thereafter. I kept records of Jan 87 and have  studied charts ever since. I honestly  believe the synoptics next week will run that spell close for severity, irrespective that we are later in the season.     exciting times and hopefully everyone gets in on the action..   and all that before a possible frontal snow event later next week....         

I can't comment on previous events that are before my time, but I mean you can't top 2010 this time can you? I mean that went on for ages and temps barely went above freezing on most days, what was it like a month almost? I mean which was worse 87 or 2010?

[radiohead]

24 minutes ago, Fergie said:

I can't comment on previous events that are before my time, but I mean you can't top 2010 this time can you? I mean that went on for ages and temps barely went above freezing on most days, what was it like a month almost? I mean which was worse 87 or 2010?

I doubt it will surpass 2010 in terms of depth and longevity of cold surface temperatures. But in terms of snowfall this setup has the potential to deliver in a way that we haven't seen since the 1980s, for some parts possibly even even back before the 1980s....

[bobbarley]

Did the south coast of Ireland not mostly miss out on the 2010 event. This looks exceptionally bad for cork and Waterford 

[BlastFromThePastbuzz]

16 minutes ago, radiohead said:

I doubt it will surpass 2010 in terms of depth and longevity of cold surface temperatures. But in terms of snowfall this setup has the potential to deliver in a way that we haven't seen since the 1980s, for some parts possibly even even back before the 1980s....

Agree with depths of cold. For certain regions there's  potential for certain areas to see their best since 80s. Still looking pretty dry the more west you go and it will take a lot to trump the blizzard of march 2013 in terms of snowfall. 

[Weegaz]

March 13 was mega for me, had about 10 inches at home then working in Antrim the snow drifts over the mountain where 10ft high. I remember my brother in law heading out to clear snow up over the ligonel mountain with the big JCB farm shovel, there was cars being found buried.

It would skin you out today in the wind, only to get worse next week to. The setup seems to favour east, especially towards the end of the week where some of the features seem to stall over Ireland as they come up against the Atlantic 

[Bottled Snow]

1 hour ago, Fergie said:

I can't comment on previous events that are before my time, but I mean you can't top 2010 this time can you? I mean that went on for ages and temps barely went above freezing on most days, what was it like a month almost? I mean which was worse 87 or 2010?

Hi Fergie

2010 was indeed special but different synoptically. First spell from the northeast lasted two weeks in mainly slack flow and then second spell as a result of Greenland block. The upcoming spell is more akin to 1987 and 1991 in that we have an incoming siberian blast with very strong easterly flow.  1987 was a shorter but more potent spell than 2010 and this upcoming week is along the lines of that synoptically. Potential for this to last a bit longer with stronger winds at times and possibly even a blizzard later in the week, but probably not quite as cold. . Daytime temps in 1987 for a few days did not rise above -5 in strong to near gale force east wind and driving snow. Both extreme events by Ireland'  standards in their own right though....

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Bottled Snow