Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, FetchCB said:

I lived in South West London for 79,87 events,. Now in Peterborough on the edge of the Fens. On the one hand I feel blase about the possibilities ie yes it will be cold but there won't be much disruption but on the other hand there is a part of me that thinks OMG if it was bad in 79 /87 in SW London then what the hell will it be like here 

Given the strength of the wind and the flat land where you are, I would expect big drifts.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Jez some excitment for you folk in the east if this all verifies! I look forward to being the only one in work next week when the eastenders phone in to say they are snowed in ?

[Aliaalu]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Think I'll start stocking up on coal and essentials. Anyone in rural areas near the East coast should take heed, I would expect power outages and heavy drifts blocking roads and rail.

 

I'm always prepared (too much scout blood in me apparently)..... and I only live in Belmont! 

 

I am concerned about my recently widowed mum and elderly aunt who live separately in the country outside Lisburn. I think I might say something to them today to ensure they have enough coal, oil and food in.

[FetchCB]

23 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

I lived in South West London for 79,87 events,. Now in Peterborough on the edge of the Fens. On the one hand I feel blase about the possibilities ie yes it will be cold but there won't be much disruption but on the other hand there is a part of me that thinks OMG if it was bad in 79 /87 in SW London then what the hell will it be like here 

Wrong thread sorry 

[Sussex Jules]

Sorry guys I may have jinxed things. I've mentioned to the other half about getting some supplies in. I'm not concerned about snow as such more the low temperatures. Rural living has also got me concerned about any problems with power supply as well. If the electric goes we have no heating and no water as there's an electric pump from the well.

What will be will be but to be quite honest after the past couple of days and being able to get out into the garden I'd be quite happy if it was just the guys in the East that got something.

[sundog]

I'd say us guys in the east will be buried to the balls ( in snow) next week. Looking very good,just wish we were closer to next week.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

18 minutes ago, sundog said:

I'd say us guys in the east will be buried to the balls ( in snow) next week. Looking very good,just wish we were closer to next week.

Hmmm what's the guide for balls deep though? Is it of a long legged man or a very droppy Bawsack??

[sundog]

2 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Hmmm what's the guide for balls deep though? Is it of a long legged man or a very droppy Bawsack??

Average height, average balls lol

[The Weather Watcher]

Hopefully get the chance to film the great sledge race version 2 (2010), yes that's me and my inner child in the Velux hat lol.

 

1299738_10153119858240403_64748_n.mp4

[Weegaz]

If what is being modelled at present, do we think this could give 2010 a run for its money?

 

[Rocheydub]

17 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

If what is being modelled at present, do we think this could give 2010 a run for its money?

 

Better by a long shot. If the modelling remains the same. Much better (or worse, if you get my drift... Excuse the pun!)

[mountain shadow]

Unbelievable 6z run for the East.

It essentially had me under snow from Monday and for over 10 days after it. Snow would be in feet not inches and never  mind the drifts! 

[Weegaz]

I would say from Thursday, this could be headline news with serious warnings from MetO and MetE.

Would be a great confidence boaster to see the automated throwing in a few snow symbols at this stage......just for fun of course.

Quite a few wishing this week away, this time next week we could be sitting at home with no power watching the snow pile up outside.....class.

[parrotingfantasist]

This time, if the GFS verified if anything falls over here it won't be the usual wet sleet that drowns in the puddles on the ground. Lucking forward to it with big anxiety though knowing how far west I am!

[sundog]

36 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Better by a long shot. If the modelling remains the same. Much better (or worse, if you get my drift... Excuse the pun!)

Better regards snow alright. Temps I'd say not as cold due to the time of year.

But of course once it's cold enough for snow which it would be, is of course the main thing. I don't want to sound greedy.

Edited February 20, 2018 by sundog

[bma79]

Update from irish weather online

ADVANCE ALERT -- A spell of severe winter weather is now considered very likely starting around Sunday 25th and lasting perhaps a week or longer. Details are of course sketchy but the depth of cold air apparently heading west towards Ireland would suggest that temperatures could be well below freezing, and that snowfall is a strong possibility in the east, south and perhaps coastal areas of north and west as well, and we are seeing some charts on the most reliable models that are real jaw-droppers for snowfall potential, so be aware and check for updates, there is still a slight chance of a less intense outcome but with all global models marching in lock-step towards this scenario, confidence is growing.

The overall situation is that the very mild air mass from the past two days has been pushed east of Ireland now by a slowly developing high pressure area, but some of that milder air will get trapped between this weak cold air mass and the advancing Siberian very cold air, and will be returned to sender (the Atlantic) later this week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for this wintry spell to continue with the European model showing potential for a heavy snowfall around 1-2 March, stay tuned as these details could change, but in any event, it appears likely that the cold spell will get one or two reinforcements from the east, with only limited amounts of warming between the coldest spells. If it does snow heavily in some areas and then clears, temperatures could drop well below -8 C over snow in clear skies. The overall effects of this spell could be quite disruptive to travel. (The chances appear to be at least 70 per cent that some form of wintry weather will occur, whether it lasts as long as some guidance suggests might be more like 40 per cent probable).

[January Snowstorm]

While the spell is looking great I doubt very much it will be better than 2010 which was exceptional. It's the 1st March next week guys I don't care how cold the charts look the sun is warm and will remain so. We had no thawing during 2010 this spell will of course see some thaw in between showers.

So a massive event coming up but won't beat 2010 for me because it's Spring next week

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

While the spell is looking great I doubt very much it will be better than 2010 which was exceptional. It's the 1st March next week guys I don't care how cold the charts look the sun is warm and will remain so. We had no thawing during 2010 this spell will of course see some thaw in between showers.

So a massive event coming up but won't beat 2010 for me because it's Spring next week

Pretty sure you didn't have -14 degrees uppers in December 2010 though?

Away from coastal areas, I don't think there will be much snow melt between showers.

[The Eagle]

The March 2013 incursion had melt between showers, however, that was a month later than now.

I would not expect, on current guidance, much melt.

Everything would freeze over quickly after dark regardless. Even a little melt between showers would lead to more hazardous transport conditions.

Edited February 20, 2018 by The Eagle

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Sitting in the sun here it's really lovely and dare I say it warmish for a February day. Not sure if I want to see this cold spell, birds singing away here as well, a wee shock to the system in store for them☹

[BlastFromThePastbuzz]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Pretty sure you didn't have -14 degrees uppers in December 2010 though?

Away from coastal areas, I don't think there will be much snow melt between showers.

Uppers aren't everything. 

 

Second cold spell in 2010 from the Northerly Castlederg had temperatures of -5 or below continuously for 187 hours, that's almost 8 full days. 6 of those nights sub -15, a 7th time during the last evening of cold spell at 7pm, a low of -18.7,a daily maximum of -11. Another location near hand beat it with a maximum of -11.3. This won't come close to that anywhere, it was most extreme in Castlederg, not sure what all the values were further east but nothing remotely like that. 

 

Also yr weather which uses the ECM model doesn't show anything extreme until day 10, pushed back that the previous ECM run. 

 

Dublin maximums for next week with ECM 

Monday 3c

Tuesday 4c

Wednesday 2c

Thursday-2

Belfast

4c,5c,2c,-2 for the same days. 

 

So we're waiting until day 10 before we see anything extreme. I think people are getting carried away, yes other models look better but until ECM brings it in closer range I'd urge caution, day 10. The Western 2 thirds of the country look bone dry as well, unless a front from the Atlantic comes in. So much hype for this because areas that don't see much snow, will see snow. This won't be anything remotely like 2010.

Edited February 20, 2018 by BlastFromThePastbuzz

[parrotingfantasist]

52 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Sitting in the sun here it's really lovely and dare I say it warmish for a February day. Not sure if I want to see this cold spell, birds singing away here as well, a wee shock to the system in store for them☹

Something in me that thinks these birds always know whats coming before it happens. Same with Ophelia and the storms, they absolutely devoured the feeders before Ophelia came, don't know if it applies for cold weather though. 

[Sparky72]

Can anyone say is this an East only event? We got plenty of snow in 2010 but think I'm too far West for this one.....

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

Can anyone say is this an East only event? We got plenty of snow in 2010 but think I'm too far West for this one.....

The cold doesn't reach us until another 6 or 7 days so impossible to tell yet.

The way the models are currently showing, I would expect snow to move across to the West.

Edited February 20, 2018 by mountain shadow

[ronan]

4 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

Can anyone say is this an East only event? We got plenty of snow in 2010 but think I'm too far West for this one.....

Did 2010 not start with a Northerly or North Easterly. Think that's how we got snow in West first?