Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

[Sneachtastorm]

Snowing heavily and white outside. 

[Sneachtastorm]

Snowing again. Roads were bad this morning, car was in the ditch on one of the back roads that was white. No warning from met Éireann. 

[gary1365]

White this morning here too with heavy showers. There was a subaru wrx in the ditch on the Coleraine mountain this morning.

[Sneachtastorm]

Ice warning from 7pm 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Frequent showers will affect Northern Ireland during Thursday, falling as sleet and snow at times with some slight accumulations possible above 200 m. These showers will become less frequent and fall increasingly as rain overnight into Friday. Surface temperatures are expected to fall widely below freezing on Thursday evening across Northern Ireland with ice then forming. With showers continuing to affect Northern Ireland, particularly western parts, some wash off is also possible.

[Rocheydub]

Some sleet and hail today, feeling bitterly cold in the strong breeze, but mostly clear blue skies. High today of 5.7... 

[Sneachtastorm]

Chance of seeing the Northern Lights tonight. 

[Sussex Jules]

Snow on and off today. Nothing settled but nice to see it falling. In between blue skies and out of the wind you can really feel the warmth of the sun. 

[mountain shadow]

6 hours ago, Sneachtastorm said:

Chance of seeing the Northern Lights tonight. 

We've driven up to Castlerock for a look....nothing

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

We've driven up to Castlerock for a look....nothing

 

Remind you of this Easterly 

[Weegaz]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We've driven up to Castlerock for a look....nothing

 

Any sign of an easterly up that direction? 

[booferking]

Just now, Weegaz said:

Any sign of an easterly up that direction? 

Need to drive to Moscow me thinks

[Weegaz]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Remind you of this Easterly 

Beat me to it 

[Rocheydub]

Charts are showing the onset of an easterly from 120hrs, not particularly potent so far, but plenty of scope for change to that at this range, for our shores.

[Weegaz]

Had a read of the last 8 pages of the MOD thread and now i'm an emotional wreck........i just want it to be spring TBH 

We have had numerous cold shots, snow, frost, wind, rain this winter.....been an exception of the norm of recent years.....excellent imo.

BUT.........I'd say if there was a chance of heavy snow again I'll yet again be roped in. 

[Baltic Regions]

Me too.

i took apart my dads shed and kept all timber to make raised beds. 

Based on the now proven theory that putting your hand brake on at red lights turns them green I'll be starting on the raised beds tomorrow.  

We should see snow fairly soon after.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

4 minutes ago, Baltic Regions said:

Me too.

i took apart my dads shed and kept all timber to make raised beds. 

Based on the now proven theory that putting your hand brake on at red lights turns them green I'll be starting on the raised beds tomorrow.  

We should see snow fairly soon after.

Good idea Baltic, gearing myself up to take into the Garage and do a bit of "spring cleaning" outside roll on the spring

[booferking]

17 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Had a read of the last 8 pages of the MOD thread and now i'm an emotional wreck........i just want it to be spring TBH 

We have had numerous cold shots, snow, frost, wind, rain this winter.....been an exception of the norm of recent years.....excellent imo.

BUT.........I'd say if there was a chance of heavy snow again I'll yet again be roped in. 

Yea the mod thread is a complete mess this morning cant make head nor tail of it.

[Rocheydub]

Basically, the ECM is showing an early enough onset of an easterly, not quite potent at the start, but if it progressed the way it's showing, it would be baltic for the entire country of Ireland, not just the east coast. The hi res APERGE is also showing the same evolution as early ECM, which is very encouraging.

The GFS is showing some far off interest in height rises up to the NE. Too far away to take much note. Lower rated models are showing similar to ECM, but worst of all, the UKMO was showing great charts for E'ly but dropped it somewhat this morning. 

The thing with the strength of this SSW is that it's the biggest recorded so the models are struggling to cope with the output, hence the chopping and changing at day 5 which is usually not so FI. This won't be full resolved until maybe the 12z's tomorrow bringing it into the 96-72 territory.

Hopefully this makes a visit to the MOD not necessary for you all, I think I summed it up well enough!

[bobbarley]

Great Rochey, I really can’t be bothered with MOD thread anymore so thanks for the summary

[Downburst]

10 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Basically, the ECM is showing an early enough onset of an easterly, not quite potent at the start, but if it progressed the way it's showing, it would be baltic for the entire country of Ireland, not just the east coast. The hi res APERGE is also showing the same evolution as early ECM, which is very encouraging.

The GFS is showing some far off interest in height rises up to the NE. Too far away to take much note. Lower rated models are showing similar to ECM, but worst of all, the UKMO was showing great charts for E'ly but dropped it somewhat this morning. 

The thing with the strength of this SSW is that it's the biggest recorded so the models are struggling to cope with the output, hence the chopping and changing at day 5 which is usually not so FI. This won't be full resolved until maybe the 12z's tomorrow bringing it into the 96-72 territory.

Hopefully this makes a visit to the MOD not necessary for you all, I think I summed it up well enough!

Yes you did ery well thanks Rochey. Hadn't the heart for it today. Must say I'm no fan of the "models are struggling" due to SSW. After 10 years i can tel lyou the only thing struggling in my experience is a SSW that was forcasted actually happeninf and if then actually  having some affect in these parts. Mind you an excellent traditional winter with a lot of frozt and a little snow so I am not desperate. I am looking forward to spring now.

[jules216]

4 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Basically, the ECM is showing an early enough onset of an easterly, not quite potent at the start, but if it progressed the way it's showing, it would be baltic for the entire country of Ireland, not just the east coast. The hi res APERGE is also showing the same evolution as early ECM, which is very encouraging.

The GFS is showing some far off interest in height rises up to the NE. Too far away to take much note. Lower rated models are showing similar to ECM, but worst of all, the UKMO was showing great charts for E'ly but dropped it somewhat this morning. 

The thing with the strength of this SSW is that it's the biggest recorded so the models are struggling to cope with the output, hence the chopping and changing at day 5 which is usually not so FI. This won't be full resolved until maybe the 12z's tomorrow bringing it into the 96-72 territory.

Hopefully this makes a visit to the MOD not necessary for you all, I think I summed it up well enough!

What will happen is that we finally conquer -NAO some time around 20.03 to bring us dull chilly spring and will watch easterlies next weeks stop in Eastern England as in 2012, this winter has yet again proven very frustrating with very short cold snaps here on the east coast, no -NAO month since March 2013 which is what we need here for lying snow, at least NI had their fair share of snow as usual

[parrotingfantasist]

Big easterly on ECM. Big convective snow showers (no marginality this time) for east and south east possibly a Greenie high later on? Much looking forward to the latter! LPs heading down with cold, snowy front activity with locked in snow island-wide. 

Edited February 16, 2018 by parrotingfantasist

[Rocheydub]

Model updates... So you can avoid the MOD thread madness.

 

GFS, ECM, ICON, GEM, JMA and most of the other less known models all agree an easterly coming, some within 4 days, all with varying degrees of strength, some bringing snowmageddon within a week, but all models show height rises in northern latitudes and wintery weather for all within 5-10 days. Still finer details to be resolved but all very positive. 

Only fly in the ointment is UKMO model, which apparently doesn't have the appendages to examine stratospheric change effects in as much detail as ECM, ICON etc.

Met Eireann currently stating that Tuesday onwards will be: Outlook: There is a high degree of uncertainty in the outlook. At present the most likely solution is for high pressure to build over Ireland bringing a spell of dry weather with frosty nights and cold, bright days. This is how the models show the high building over us before going north, so all very positive-is!

All in all, this has the potential to be a memorable event if the more extreme of the charts verify. It's quite addictive model watching!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Beautiful morning, birds singing away heralding in spring they must not know about the impending easterly ☹

[Rocheydub]

Easterly. Steady as she goes.