Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

[jules216]

Some serious windchill factors tomorrow morning and monday morning  going down to -9 levels in my neck of the woods(west Wicklow), we seem to be one of the coldest areas from a NW flow, hoping for some dustings at least on both occasions, also EURO4 model has -11 at 850hPA level tomorrow 6AM just above us, which would be the coldest numerical value since long long time

Edited February 8, 2018 by jules216

[mountain shadow]

Sunday really firming up to be a very cold and wintry day. Frequent heavy snow showers appear fairly widespread.

Obviously some areas will do better than others, but pleasing to see none the less.

[booferking]

Sunday Monday Tuesday looking very snowy widespread amounts i would say even 10-15cm possible to some low ground areas higher totals you know were @Sperrin 

[Sneachtastorm]

Interestingly the snow warning for tonight has been increased in terms of possible impacts. It moved up 3 places on the scale from the initial warning. Just one place off Amber. It was initially 4. The previous snow warning earlier in the week met the bare minimum criteria to issue a yellow warning. 

 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Sneachtastorm

[Neiller22]

Yes it’s beginnning to look very very good for everybody 

[parrotingfantasist]

-8 uppers to -9 uppers hopefully this will deliver more to west than last NW/westerly.

[Sperrin]

@booferking This is truly an epic winter for snow. It's got to the stage how were I didnt even open the curtains  this week when snow was hammering down. I never thought that would be the case.

My metal shed roof has collapsed at the front (neighbours too) due to the weight of snow from a few weeks back!

On another note, Im working in Clifden in Co Galway today. This part of the world is phenomenal. The views around Leenane are out of this world. My photograph off crap work phone doesn't do it justice. 

[bobbarley]

26 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

Interestingly the snow warning for tonight has been increased in terms of possible impacts. It moved up 3 places on the scale from the initial warning. Just one place off Amber. It was initially 4. The previous snow warning earlier in the week met the bare minimum criteria to issue a yellow warning. 

 

I’d say that’s only because it has been extended further south into England 

[gman144]

34 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

Interestingly the snow warning for tonight has been increased in terms of possible impacts. It moved up 3 places on the scale from the initial warning. Just one place off Amber. It was initially 4. The previous snow warning earlier in the week met the bare minimum criteria to issue a yellow warning. 

 

The difference between the 2 risk assessments is tonight’s is less likely to happen but if it does it may have more impact to travel etc. It’s not 3 points closer to amber.

[Neiller22]

Not a happy mod thread as the phantom easterly is no closer. I personally can’t see it happening as its virtually impossible to get an easterly nowadays. It hints at it but then disappears which is not a good sign. Always fl 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Neiller22

[Sparky72]

I won't get too excited here in the West about tonight as I think the usual will happen in that the heavier precipitation goes through before temps drop. However Sunday looks good for all.

[sundog]

12 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Not a happy mod thread as the phantom easterly is no closer. I personally can’t see it happening as its virtually impossible to get an easterly nowadays. It hints at it but then disappears which is not a good sign. Always fl 

If anything comes out of the upcoming ssw I really hope it's a Greenland high. A Scandinavian one will most likely led to disappointment for Ireland whatever about the UK. Anyway it will be very interesting to see what happens.

Edited February 8, 2018 by sundog

[Sneachtastorm]

27 minutes ago, gman144 said:

The difference between the 2 risk assessments is tonight’s is less likely to happen but if it does it may have more impact to travel etc. It’s not 3 points closer to amber.

No you're reading it wrong. The first bar on the left means low impact and whether it's likely or highly likely there will be low impacts. Anything which progresses to the second/middle bar means medium impacts which is an upgrade from the previous bar of low impacts, the middle bar exceeds and goes beyond the criteria needed for very likely in low impacts. It's 1 point off Amber.  I sent an email to the Met office when the warnings came out asking them to explain it. 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Sneachtastorm

[Neiller22]

Well Angies forecast is pretty poor to say the least. Tonight doesn’t look like much at all with lying snow restricted to higher ground and Sunday had sunshine and a few snow showers. Prob why there is no warning out at the mo for late sat and Sunday. Strange forecast as it’s against what models show. Ah well. We will see what happens. 

[Weegaz]

47 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Well Angies forecast is pretty poor to say the least. Tonight doesn’t look like much at all with lying snow restricted to higher ground and Sunday had sunshine and a few snow showers. Prob why there is no warning out at the mo for late sat and Sunday. Strange forecast as it’s against what models show. Ah well. We will see what happens. 

BBC automated showing snow all day sunday, I appreciate automated, but showing snow all the same.  Hopefully the vidoe forecasts change later, would be good to see the MetO issue warnings, it could be tomorrow before they have confidence and within 48hr window.

[Neiller22]

3 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

BBC automated showing snow all day sunday, I appreciate automated, but showing snow all the same.  Hopefully the vidoe forecasts change later, would be good to see the MetO issue warnings, it could be tomorrow before they have confidence and within 48hr window.

We will see. It was first thing this morning I watched but looked pretty pants. Yes tomorrow possible warning for sat night sun. It looks good on models but it may be a radar job on the day. 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

BBC automated showing snow all day sunday, 

For you maybe, for us in the East, it's a case of looking at the radar and seeing if any showers make it past Lough Neagh.

[Neiller22]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

For you maybe, for us in the East, it's a case of looking at the radar and seeing if any showers make it past Lough Neagh.

Yeah has me dry all day that’s the problem with nw winds not much happens this side. Been a great winter for NW nothing special at all here apart from dec. But maybe Sunday will provide but I just can’t see it for me here. 

[booferking]

Sunday/Monday will be widespread event Snow showers even a runner chance for all warnings wont be issued to Friday at earliest.

[mountain shadow]

47 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Yeah has me dry all day that’s the problem with nw winds not much happens this side. Been a great winter for NW nothing special at all here apart from dec. But maybe Sunday will provide but I just can’t see it for me here. 

You have to think our luck will change at some point. The more chances we get the more likely we'll do well.

I wouldn't be concerned about the BBC forecasts, they're generally poor when looking 2/3 days ahead on the specifics.

[booferking]

Look how close the 510 dam line gets to us for Sunday not often you see that from the west convection will be epic coming of the Atlantic with such cold air.

Edited February 8, 2018 by booferking

[SnowJon]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You have to think our luck will change at some point. The more chances we get the more likely we'll do well.

I wouldn't be concerned about the BBC forecasts, they're generally poor when looking 2/3 days ahead on the specifics.

The lunchtime BBC1 local forecast was pants! Hill snow and sleet tonight - no mention of wintriness to low levels, then rain over the weekend with much colder temperatures on Sunday. Again no mention of snow to low levels. I hope we aren't over-hyping it in here but surely there will be snow to low levels!? As you say, poor forecasts on the specifics!

Edited February 8, 2018 by SnowJon

[Weegaz]

Anyone looked at PPN?

[booferking]

1 minute ago, SnowJon said:

The lunchtime BBC1 local forecast was pants! Hill snow and sleet tonight - no mention of wintriness to low levels, then rain over the weekend with much colder temperatures on Sunday. Again no mention of snow to low levels. I hope we aren't over-hyping it in here but surely there will be snow to low levels!? As you say, poor forecasts on the specifics!

Well if it cant snow on low ground with 510 dam line & -3 to -5 dew points on are shores then I'll eat my hat.

[SnowJon]

Just now, booferking said:

Well if it cant snow on low ground with 510 dam line & -3 to -5 dew points on are shores then I'll eat my hat.

I'll join you!