Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

[parrotingfantasist]

5 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

Not for the east it didnt. The NW/W /N got a lot of snow during January in that wee spell but us in the east got very very little and the evening when the NW/W/N all got 5 hrs of snow us in the east got heavy rain so it didnt exactly revert back to what it had  initially showed but i do take your point.

Alot of the NW not got much if any at all. Showers were just sleety hail, east of Derry you'd be talking.

 

 

[Weegaz]

East looking best for this one and at only 72 hrs. This would surely cause the fronts to slow towards the west of our wee country?

Potential looks great for next week, really interesting model viewing.

Trusty lampposts (for those lucky enough to have one) are going to get some viewing also.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Weegaz

[mountain shadow]

6z less progressive with the front on Monday night, so better chance of snow rather than rain. Still expect that the GFS is a touch too progressive.

[Sneachtastorm]

Latest GFS coldest uppers push away East quicker but second reload is closer to our shores earlier than previous run. 

[Neiller22]

Who knows what is going to happen on mon night or tues. Hard  to tell as the models are having a little wobble. Slight meltdown simmering in the mod thread now but to be fair the gfs runs gives us ample opportunities for snow on the whole run. Great for Scotland and northwest uk but drier and  colder for the rest of the uk hence the mini breakdown in mid thread. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Neiller22

[carboncowboy75]

Slight? Lol i have never came across a bigger pile of whingeing sods

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

What's wrong now lol

[Neiller22]

3 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

What's wrong now lol

Snow not showing! Too dry. Still looks ok for us throughout  run. 

[Sparky72]

1 hour ago, Sneachtastorm said:

Latest GFS coldest uppers push away East quicker but second reload is closer to our shores earlier than previous run. 

I think the bigger issue for the West is cold enough air reaching there in the first place.

[ronan]

Based on above comments I am going nowhere near the MOD thread. Lol. There will be many more changes between now and Monday so fasten your seat belts and enjoy the ride. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by ronan

[Sneachtastorm]

29 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

I think the bigger issue for the West is cold enough air reaching there in the first place.

I disagree. T96 ECM has -9 uppers across the North, -8 widely and GFS has -10. For me the biggest issue how fast it pushes east. 

[Neiller22]

O dear. The wheels are coming off at a rapid rate in the mod thread. ECM backtracking to gfs. This all started with last nights gfs. Everybody laughs at the pub run but that’s twice in 4 weeks it began the downgrades. Maybe we should take more note of it. Still looking ok for us but any  more downgrades this will be a bust I’m afraid. . 

[ronan]

It's amazing how epic runs can just die a death in the UK. It amazes me! I knew something was up with that GFS last night but a lot of people still discount certain outputs because it isn't what they want to see.

[Sneachtastorm]

Yep. Shots of cold of -8 and below quickly followed by milder temps then another shot later. 

[Sneachtastorm]

It's always showed the milder patches even at its best but they've grown and the colder spells have shortened. IMO never looked brutal longevity wise because of the milder blips. This is why I want a Greenland high lol. Anyway still looks good for seeing some lying snow this week up here, that's always a positive. 

[Neiller22]

8 minutes ago, ronan said:

It's amazing how epic runs can just die a death in the UK. It amazes me! I knew something was up with that GFS last night but a lot of people still discount certain outputs because it isn't what they want to see.

Couldn’t agree more. Once they start turning it’s a downward spiral. Cold weather is getting virtually impossible to sustain in this country. From a point of looking virtually impossible to fail ref cold I’m afraid it’s heading the other way. Anyway it might change in the morn again. That’s our  only hope. 

On a side note it’s also the 2nd time the metro update looked brilliant only for it to go pear shaped within 6 hrs. They are the new scud masters! 

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Neiller22

[bobbarley]

They’re like kids, getting excited about charts for at least a week in advance, when possibly a day previously they showed something completely different.

Its called Fantasy Land for a reason, take the rough with the smooth and enjoy whatever comes our way

[Sneachtastorm]

Could still be changes for the better. Come Sunday we'll have a better idea so I'm not despondent just yet. 

[parrotingfantasist]

10 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

O dear. The wheels are coming off at a rapid rate in the mod thread. ECM backtracking to gfs. This all started with last nights gfs. Everybody laughs at the pub run but that’s twice in 4 weeks it began the downgrades. Maybe we should take more note of it. Still looking ok for us but any  more downgrades this will be a bust I’m afraid. . 

I think its just the models being all over the place. One bad run, everybody loses it. SSW and this MJO thing is probably making the models go up and down (I'm incredibly unknowledgeable but I hear those two phrases flying around the place).

 

Was never really jumping around excited for this cold spell anyway. I don't see the easterly giving us the cold enough uppers and I don't see the NWly giving us the cold enough ground temperatures but I am most likely wrong on both accounts lmao

[ronan]

Can the newer posters put their locations in their profiles just so we all know where yous are at. Cheers.

[Neiller22]

7 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

I think its just the models being all over the place. One bad run, everybody loses it. SSW and this MJO thing is probably making the models go up and down (I'm incredibly unknowledgeable but I hear those two phrases flying around the place).

 

Was never really jumping around excited for this cold spell anyway. I don't see the easterly giving us the cold enough uppers and I don't see the NWly giving us the cold enough ground temperatures but I am most likely wrong on both accounts lmao

It’s not one bad run. GFS has been getting worse with each output since last nights pub run. That’s a trend. ECM now following. Only one way this is going to go, going by past years and that’s a feeble cold spell 

However the mild sector on the ecm for thurs is ridiculous and see it changing. It’s like giving us the middle finger! 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Neiller22

[parrotingfantasist]

I cant get access to the BBC forecast because its the new Meteogroup website and they don't have it  

[ronan]

Type in BBC video forecast to Google.  

[ronan]

Eagerly awaiting the 18's just to see if the 12's should be binned. Few posters in the model thread said they had never seen outputs like they did on "THAT 18Z" the other night. Maybe the models are just getting to grips with what's happening and will take a few days to sort themselves out. Who knows! If the 18z follows suit to this evenings outputs then yes I will start believing but still 3/4 days to go then after that it's anyone's guess what will happen but there is a lot of cold to tap in to if things go right. 

[parrotingfantasist]

Rather than snow its depression which is settling in the MOD thread. I truly worry for those peoples health if this 18Z continues the trend.