North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[Had Worse]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

which if correct tells us to turn off the light on the way out, with dews -2/-3 and uppers of -9 then it really is time for me to call it a day on this winter if thats not snow.

This winter?

That would go for any winter.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

This winter?

That would go for any winter.

[Chris.R]

Lapse rates will be much steeper on Sunday which suggests stronger and more widespread/sustain shower activity would be possible.  At one point on Sunday there is a 48°C difference between the sea surface and 500 mbar. This morning that difference was only around 38°C.  This brings me to another point: on Sunday we have 500 mbar temperatures as low as -42°C; polar low development? 

[northwestsnow]

Maybe someone can help me out here im struggling to see what altitude would be needed on sunday with des -2/-3 and uppers of -9, there is no way in hell altitude would have been needed 30 years ago in this setup.

As already demonstrated i am useless with warnings (among other things) but didnt sundays mention 150m plus for accumulations?

Does anyone know what -9 uppers is when converted into DAM thickness? Must be 518 ish?

chris, K, or weather history can you help with this calculation please..

Edited February 9, 2018 by northwestsnow

[cheshire snow]

-8 Uppers from the ECM for Sunday.

Certainly do not see any settling snow during the,day better chance

Overnight Sunday providing the Shower activity continues.

C.S

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe someone can help me out here im struggling to see what altitude would be needed on sunday with des -2/-3 and uppers of -9, there is no way in hell altitude would have been needed 30 years ago in this setup.

As already demonstrated i am useless with warnings (among other things) but didnt sundays mention 150m plus for accumulations?

Does anyone know what -9 uppers is when converted into DAM thickness? Must be 518 ish?

chris, K, or weather history can you help with this calculation please..

 The actual thicknesses on Sunday reach 514–513 dam by the evening on gfs with -9 850s.

 No altitude required...in theory. . 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

-8 Uppers from the ECM for Sunday.

Certainly do not see any settling snow during the,day better chance

Overnight Sunday providing the Shower activity continues.

C.S

perhaps not at sea level but surely anyone with decent altitude will?

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

perhaps not at sea level but surely anyone with decent altitude will?

Although the national weather just now said for Sunday "Snow showers proper"

Even for low ground strange choice of words.

After this morning' bust I am not getting my hopes up.

C.S

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Although the national weather just now said for Sunday "Snow showers proper"

Even for low ground strange choice of words.

After this morning' bust I am not getting my hopes up.

C.S

LOL snow showers proper, we will see, im with you, been burnt that many times now think i would refuse to believe if we had -15 uppers in NW England 

and actually im not  sure we have ever had -15 uppers in NW England..

Edited February 9, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Wardlegacy]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Although the national weather just now said for Sunday "Snow showers proper"

Even for low ground strange choice of words.

After this morning' bust I am not getting my hopes up.

C.S

I don’t believe any of it anymore. I am at 165mtrs altitude and it’s been pretty dire. The biggest problem has been lack of precipitation all winter. We’ve had a few snowfalls but nothing spectacular not even if I have driven up the hill towards the Cat.

[Day 10]

49 minutes ago, karyo said:

Rather wintry Sunday midday! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Looks crap for Wirral, Merseyside, Cheshire as usual!

Mind you what model has been correct lately.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Day 10

[Chris.R]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Looks crap for Wirral, Merseyside, Cheshire as usual!

Mind you what model has been correct lately.

It’s Sunday night we need to be watching. From 9 PM to 3 AM. 

[northwestsnow]

ECM looks gorgeous this evening..

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM looks gorgeous this evening..

Steady .....

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM looks gorgeous this evening..

Yep and only 48hrs away to so pretty much nailed.

Edited February 9, 2018 by booferking

[cheshire snow]

Shambolic Dianne,watch that back and spot your mistake.

Mainly dry Sunday,before ending the forecast with the yellow warning and

Wintry showers any where Sunday also the coughing episode did not help.

C.S

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Shambolic Dianne,watch that back and spot your mistake.

Mainly dry Sunday,before ending the forecast with the yellow warning and

Wintry showers any where Sunday also the coughing episode did not help.

C.S

 I don’t know why you put yourself through watching those so-called forecasts. I steer well clear of them myself. 

[cheshire snow]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I don’t know why you put yourself through watching those so-called forecasts. I steer well clear of them myself. 

MOD thread all happy again.......For Now

Chris I have no idea why my post has quoted yours 

C.S

[Frost HoIIow]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL snow showers proper, we will see, im with you, been burnt that many times now think i would refuse to believe if we had -15 uppers in NW England 

and actually im not  sure we have ever had -15 uppers in NW England..

I think the last time was Jan 87. We had uppers of -17C 

[itsnowjoke]

Well I'm off to bed no curtains to wash but everybody down with some bug cold whatever one child on antibiotics so I'm going while I can get some sleep even if it's a Friday   

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Well I'm off to bed no curtains to wash but everybody down with some bug cold whatever one child on antibiotics so I'm going while I can get some sleep even if it's a Friday   

Rum & coke for me

[Wardlegacy]

30 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Shambolic Dianne,watch that back and spot your mistake.

Mainly dry Sunday,before ending the forecast with the yellow warning and

Wintry showers any where Sunday also the coughing episode did not help.

C.S

The problem is now the BBC is using Meteogroup for their forecasts. Meteogroup are using data that suggests mainly dry but Met Office warnings overide whatever they are forecasting and have to be shown. This was highlighted earlier on Twitter. Hence we may get more contradictory forecasts.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Wardlegacy

[Wardlegacy]

16 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think the last time was Jan 87. We had uppers of -17C 

The uppers in 1987 were colder than 1963 weren’t they but 1987 only lasted about a week 

[Astral Goat Juice]

I'm glad the Mods finally banned that Troll Chevron12345. It was clear as day.

[Frost HoIIow]

1 minute ago, Wardlegacy said:

The uppers in 1987 were colder than 1963 weren’t they but 1987 only lasted about a week 

Yep it was a longer cold spell in 63 despite less cold uppers. Jan 87 was short but the cold intense whilst it was here, proper Siberian air.