North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[karyo]

13 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

To those mentioning us in the midlands. It has snowed and left a slight covering in places but is quickly thawing anyway. You havent missed much!

Yes, it is not cold enough to keep the snow cover all day. 

At least it looks like on Sunday the showers will be be coming and going all day so more chance to end the day with some snow on the ground.

[frosty ground]

Another warning..... now Sunday!

[Wardlegacy]

Met office warning for snow on Sunday issued now. That wil out a stop to any snow.

[Spah1]

another rain warning for Sunday

[karyo]

So the warning for Sunday is just for the morning hours. I guess they expect the heating from the sun to be enough to cancel any issues with snow for the rest of the day despite the showers keep coming. 

As it is mid February and the uppers are not spectacular they are probably right. 

[Darren Bown]

Sunday is not looking exciting. Wintry showers and ice the main part of the warning, and snow for higher areas. Bit like today if there was more precip around during the day.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Sunday is not looking exciting. Wintry showers and ice the main part of the warning, and snow for higher areas. Bit like today if there was more precip around during the day.

The difference is that there will be proper shower activity then and uppers of about a degree colder. Also, as it will be Sunday many of us will be able to take a drive to the nearest hill and enjoy proper snow. 

[Summerstorm]

Torrential hail shower here more like a hail blizzard with the wind. Would rather it was snow but it's impressive all the same 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Summerstorm

[Day 10]

SUNDAY

Met Office forecast.

Cold and windy on Sunday and Monday with sunny spells and snow showers.

Latest GFS.

HIRLAM just coming into view.

Latest GFS.

850's

Dewpoints

Windchill

Temperatures

WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG!!!

Edited February 9, 2018 by Day 10

[karyo]

@Day 10 it looks great on GFS.

The updated euro 4 goes up to 6am on Sunday and here is the chart: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

It looks quite good to me as shower activity is getting going at that stage but the colder uppers haven't arrived yet. All snow in Northern Ireland where the colder uppers are and some of that activity should be getting to us later in the day.

Edited February 9, 2018 by karyo

[Thunder Snow]

Well we had heavy rain this morning:(

[Hocus Pocus]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Except when Joe B stated his journey there was no ice, but a few miles up the road there was and he had an accident that put pressure on the NHS.

And he would still have an accident regardless of being forewarned. 

[Day 10]

28 minutes ago, karyo said:

@Day 10 it looks great on GFS.

The updated euro 4 goes up to 6am on Sunday and here is the chart: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

It looks quite good to me as shower activity is getting going at that stage but the colder uppers haven't arrived yet. All snow in Northern Ireland where the colder uppers are and some of that activity should be getting to us later in the day.

Thanks for that link I can never find it and must bookmark it now.

Yes it only goes to Sunday 6am but the trend looks good, I agree by Sunday afternoon and especially into the evening then things look fully conducive to snow showers even by the coast in my book. So once again another garden path to follow to see were it leads. All this bloody following of forecasts, charts, warnings, the beeb, the met, posting has to come to fruition sooner or later surely. All this is even before we learn what is going to happen with the impending SSW! Fingers crossed.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Thanks for that link I can never find it and must bookmark it now.

Yes it only goes to Sunday 6am but the trend looks good, I agree by Sunday afternoon and especially into the evening then things look fully conducive to snow showers even by the coast in my book. So once again another garden path to follow to see were it leads. All this bloody following of forecasts, charts, warnings, the beeb, the met, posting has to come to fruition sooner or later surely. All this is even before we learn what is going to happen with the impending SSW! Fingers crossed.

Yes, fingers crossed. The Met Office update remains unchanged with the cold outlook for the remainder of February into March so they are thinking that the SSW should have a good result for us.

[karyo]

It is a dry and boring afternoon. At least we should see an early frost tonight.

[northwestsnow]

Just lookig at euro4 and the dews go negative by 3am sunday morning and the uppers -7 are already into the region.

We just need the heavy precipitation and we are laughing.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karyo said:

It is a dry and boring afternoon. At least we should see an early frost tonight.

yes, i just been up to a pub in scouthead area of oldham at 330m and the wind is absolutely bitter up there, sunday promises to be great looking at euro 4, as long as the snow showers dont miss us, again.

[karyo]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes, i just been up to a pub in scouthead area of oldham at 330m and the wind is absolutely bitter up there, sunday promises to be great looking at euro 4, as long as the snow showers dont miss us, again.

If the wind direction stays as it looks now we should be fine across the region. A few days ago the models were showing the wind to turn west/southwest which would have been a no no for the south of the region but thankfully that is postponed till Monday now.

[SP1986]

Tonight I think the wind turns south for a time but no precipitation. But overwhelmingly polar maritime outlook.

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, karyo said:

If the wind direction stays as it looks now we should be fine across the region. A few days ago the models were showing the wind to turn west/southwest which would have been a no no for the south of the region but thankfully that is postponed till Monday now.

Just wanted to say you were absolutely spot on for today K, well done for that

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just wanted to say you were absolutely spot on for today K, well done for that

Sadly but thank you.

[itsnowjoke]

Well that was a non starter

[Mokidugway]

It's looking good for no more snow this year ,anyone noticed how strong the suns getting 

[JeffC]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

It's looking good for no more snow this year ,anyone noticed how strong the suns getting 

quite chilly here despite the sun

[karyo]

The updated ICON has less showery activity for Sunday despite the pressure pattern and wind direction looking the same as the earlier run. Not something to worry much about at this stage as the ICON is not a precipitation model.