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North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards


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Just now, Barmada_Casten said:

Tonight and the early hours of the morning will see a short lived front of light snowfall make its way across the region giving a small accumulation of up to 2cm (max) at lower levels in parts of the region and the proverbial more on higher ground.

This is not a major event in the slightest. Any potential snowfall later in the week for our region will also be downgraded and will not lead to anything significant.

No it definitely is not looking like a major event but perhaps a light covering for some.

Forgot AROME - looks ok too. https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arome.php?ech=27&mode=101&map=30

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Now remind me why I dont post in the MOD thread oh yes that is it,post deleted because I Mentioned lack of snow and it been coldest part of winter.yet you can post about your Granny and that is o

HEAVY SNOW WOOOHOOOO! 

Mod thread is like stepping into the SE regional thread. Snow in the SE innit fam? Lots of snow...you understand blud?  

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6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Latest model guidance for tomorrow's front...

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=5 - NMM

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=28&mode=1&map=330 - Arpege

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=26&mode=1&map=510 - ICON

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=430 - HIRLAM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_30_43.png - GFS

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/180205_0000_36.png - ECM

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/02/05/basis06/ukuk/prec/18020612_0506.gif - EURO4

All in all we have very good agreement now of the front making it across the NW without too much of a fizzle. Not a single model completely destroys the front before it clears our region, but the models disagree on the intensity of the precipitation. GFS and HIRLAM are keener for some heavier precipitation, ICON and EURO4 only really show light stuff towards Manchester and the Peaks. The models also disagree on the front's timing - the peak appears to be the morning around 10am but this varies by model.

For a change, more northern and western parts of the NW look likely to get the heavier snow - there could be some issues at rush hour in Liverpool and Preston for example. If we do get any accumulation, there could be some melting in the afternoon before a re-freeze after sunset.

It's notable that Euro4 is not modelling much snow accumulation across the region and this should be noted. 

The front could easily be more potent than the NWP suggests, but we won't know until the early hours. 12z guidance won't help us much IMO - it's a radar job from now.

Cheers for the time and effort in that post Joe. I was about to trawl through them and you saved me a job. :)

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1 minute ago, captaincroc said:

Cheers for the time and effort in that post Joe. I was about to trawl through them and you saved me a job. :)

No worries. The amount of data is enough to drive you mad.

Thankfully they're all pretty much saying the same thing. For it to not snow at all, they will ALL have to be wrong.

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21 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Met office give 8C here Thursday and 5C Friday, not conductive to snow. It’ll be a day of rain and hail showers, anything that comes off the Irish Sea as of late 20 miles or less from the coast is purely hail and rubbishness

 I bet you a fiver we see snow on Friday. 

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I wish this cloud would break up to allow a hard frost tonight. The satellite shows some breaks developing in the midlands but still thick further north.

Tomorrow's weather front is looking nicely as well. Let's hope it keeps as much energy as possible.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

It is now starting to get picked up by the rainfall radar too. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

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20 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 More substantial flakes now but still light. The steering flow will soon veer southerly cutting off the flow of showers and hopefully cloud for this evening. 

I hope we will later pick up that clearance from the Midlands. 

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1 hour ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Tonight and the early hours of the morning will see a short lived front of light snowfall make its way across the region giving a small accumulation of up to 2cm (max) at lower levels in parts of the region and the proverbial more on higher ground.

This is not a major event in the slightest. Any potential snowfall later in the week for our region will also be downgraded and will not lead to anything significant.

Dandruff stopped now

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

I hope we will later pick up that clearance from the Midlands. 

 That’s the plan.  You should see the clearance move north and west in the next few hours.

The cool thing is that by 6 am the steering flow will have veeredall the way into the nw starting to bring down colder 500s and 850s whilst the wind remains backed off-shore at the surface. Perfection. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 That’s the plan.  You should see the clearance move north and west in the next few hours.

The cool thing is that by 6 am the steering flow will have veeredall the way into the nw starting to bring down colder 500s and 850s whilst the wind remains backed off-shore at the surface. Perfection. 

Also worth noticing that there are snow showers showing for Merseyside/Cheshire tomorrow night as picked up on the fax charts.

C.S

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1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Also worth noticing that there are snow showers showing for Merseyside/Cheshire tomorrow night as picked up on the fax charts.

Ct.S

  Yes, mentioned this before. I’m thinking that the Irish sea may come alive as lapse rates increase, so something to look out for for coastal counties. 

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

I wish this cloud would break up to allow a hard frost tonight. The satellite shows some breaks developing in the midlands but still thick further north.

Tomorrow's weather front is looking nicely as well. Let's hope it keeps as much energy as possible.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

It is now starting to get picked up by the rainfall radar too. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

What are the chances of a stall?

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7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 That’s the plan.  You should see the clearance move north and west in the next few hours.

The cool thing is that by 6 am the steering flow will have veeredall the way into the nw starting to bring down colder 500s and 850s whilst the wind remains backed off-shore at the surface. Perfection. 

The 12z ICON is looking marginally better than its earlier run. The band makes it here before breaking.

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1 minute ago, Alister said:

So is the front now shown moving across Ireland on the radar the one tha's for us tommorow?? If so doesn't look that heavy precip!

 

That's the one. The precipitation is not expected to be heavy so that's how it is supposed to look.

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1 minute ago, Alister said:

So is the front now shown moving across Ireland on the radar the one tha's for us tommorow?? If so doesn't look that heavy precip!

 

I imagine the front will pep up as it crosses the Irish sea. It wasn't supposed to be that heavy anyway as the forecast doesn't represent huge amounts.

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