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North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards


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Now remind me why I dont post in the MOD thread oh yes that is it,post deleted because I Mentioned lack of snow and it been coldest part of winter.yet you can post about your Granny and that is o

HEAVY SNOW WOOOHOOOO! 

Mod thread is like stepping into the SE regional thread. Snow in the SE innit fam? Lots of snow...you understand blud?  

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22 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Been w while since i've seen a forecast like this for Preston ......fingers crossed

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fe28j#?date=2018-02-06

Looks pretty poor, you can add 1 degree to those temps and the snow will be gone by 9am. if it even settels at all.

Compare that to the BBC App https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2639912

BBC has had this weekends temperatures spot on. (new Data Provider is getting something right)

Edited by frosty ground
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23 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks pretty poor, you can add 1 degree to those temps and the snow will be gone by 9am. if it even settels at all.

Compare that to the BBC App https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2639912

BBC has had this weekends temperatures spot on. (new Data Provider is getting something right)

To see snow in any forecast for here is a rarity ....  met office usually do ok for my location - I tend not to look at the bbc weather.  Whatever happens it will be nice to see snow falling (if thats the case) i'm not expecting it to settle. 

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 Well that was really annoying. Looks like cloud just never cleared and so we didn’t get a air frost on the one night I thought it would be a certainty. Minimum 0.3°C and that was before midnight. 

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2 hours ago, robbo88 said:

Love the fact my weather apps say it's currently 0c and clear skies when in fact it's 1c and lightly snowing :D

 That’s pretty good for them. I’ve known them to be up to 5°C out here. 

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1 hour ago, Jan said:

Had a phone call about 1/2 hour ago to say it is snowing in Blundell Sands/Crosby. Where's Chris?

 Only woke up half an hour ago so missed whatever happened. We’ll see our fair share in the night anyway. 

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Warning out for Tuesday evening now. Looks like they’re expecting post frontal showers as you might expect given the steep laps rates and NNW flow. It will be interesting to see if the Irish sea can come alive a bit. 

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out of interest; even if Thursday night‘s front doesn’t fall as snow at all, Friday is currently looking like a day of snow showers in an NW flow with -9 850s and 515 dam thicknesses. The coast has the potential to do very well in such a set up. Sort of thing we’ve been waiting years for. 

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2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

Looks pretty poor, you can add 1 degree to those temps and the snow will be gone by 9am. if it even settels at all.

Compare that to the BBC App https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2639912

BBC has had this weekends temperatures spot on. (new Data Provider is getting something right)

Isn’t the new BBC website using raw ECM data now?

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Latest model guidance for tomorrow's front...

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=5 - NMM

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=28&mode=1&map=330 - Arpege

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=26&mode=1&map=510 - ICON

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=430 - HIRLAM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_30_43.png - GFS

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/180205_0000_36.png - ECM

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/02/05/basis06/ukuk/prec/18020612_0506.gif - EURO4

All in all we have very good agreement now of the front making it across the NW without too much of a fizzle. Not a single model completely destroys the front before it clears our region, but the models disagree on the intensity of the precipitation. GFS and HIRLAM are keener for some heavier precipitation, ICON and EURO4 only really show light stuff towards Manchester and the Peaks. The models also disagree on the front's timing - the peak appears to be the morning around 10am but this varies by model.

For a change, more northern and western parts of the NW look likely to get the heavier snow - there could be some issues at rush hour in Liverpool and Preston for example. If we do get any accumulation, there could be some melting in the afternoon before a re-freeze after sunset.

It's notable that Euro4 is not modelling much snow accumulation across the region and this should be noted. 

The front could easily be more potent than the NWP suggests, but we won't know until the early hours. 12z guidance won't help us much IMO - it's a radar job from now.

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

out of interest; even if Thursday night‘s front doesn’t fall as snow at all, Friday is currently looking like a day of snow showers in an NW flow with -9 850s and 515 dam thicknesses. The coast has the potential to do very well in such a set up. Sort of thing we’ve been waiting years for. 

Met office give 8C here Thursday and 5C Friday, not conductive to snow. It’ll be a day of rain and hail showers, anything that comes off the Irish Sea as of late 20 miles or less from the coast is purely hail and rubbishness

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Tonight and the early hours of the morning will see a short lived front of light snowfall make its way across the region giving a small accumulation of up to 2cm (max) at lower levels in parts of the region and the proverbial more on higher ground.

This is not a major event in the slightest. Any potential snowfall later in the week for our region will also be downgraded and will not lead to anything significant.

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