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North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards


Deep Snow please

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

Lovely, perfectly formed snowflakes floating down here. No danger of any settling given the amount but nice to look at.

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Posted
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme weather conditions
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S

Had a phone call about 1/2 hour ago to say it is snowing in Blundell Sands/Crosby. Where's Chris?

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny (hate hot), severe thunderstorms, heavy snow, extreme cold
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m

Got almost moderate snow here but its not settling

IMG_20180205_104253.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
22 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Been w while since i've seen a forecast like this for Preston ......fingers crossed

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fe28j#?date=2018-02-06

Looks pretty poor, you can add 1 degree to those temps and the snow will be gone by 9am. if it even settels at all.

Compare that to the BBC App https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2639912

BBC has had this weekends temperatures spot on. (new Data Provider is getting something right)

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
23 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks pretty poor, you can add 1 degree to those temps and the snow will be gone by 9am. if it even settels at all.

Compare that to the BBC App https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2639912

BBC has had this weekends temperatures spot on. (new Data Provider is getting something right)

To see snow in any forecast for here is a rarity ....  met office usually do ok for my location - I tend not to look at the bbc weather.  Whatever happens it will be nice to see snow falling (if thats the case) i'm not expecting it to settle. 

Edited by Snow free zone
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

7EF82DF2-C319-4584-A07A-774EEFF2BC51.thumb.png.777d3b0d344633834091739e5e6ea948.png

Wednesday 

updated

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
11 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

7EF82DF2-C319-4584-A07A-774EEFF2BC51.thumb.png.777d3b0d344633834091739e5e6ea948.png

Wednesday 

updated

 

Looks like an occasion when people to the West of the M6 may do better for snow for a change :)

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Well that was really annoying. Looks like cloud just never cleared and so we didn’t get a air frost on the one night I thought it would be a certainty. Minimum 0.3°C and that was before midnight. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
2 hours ago, robbo88 said:

Love the fact my weather apps say it's currently 0c and clear skies when in fact it's 1c and lightly snowing :D

 That’s pretty good for them. I’ve known them to be up to 5°C out here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Liverpool TAF showing light snow from 04:00 then snow between 06:00–09:00. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
1 hour ago, Jan said:

Had a phone call about 1/2 hour ago to say it is snowing in Blundell Sands/Crosby. Where's Chris?

 Only woke up half an hour ago so missed whatever happened. We’ll see our fair share in the night anyway. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Latest euro4 showing rain on cumbrian coast?

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Warning out for Tuesday evening now. Looks like they’re expecting post frontal showers as you might expect given the steep laps rates and NNW flow. It will be interesting to see if the Irish sea can come alive a bit. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

out of interest; even if Thursday night‘s front doesn’t fall as snow at all, Friday is currently looking like a day of snow showers in an NW flow with -9 850s and 515 dam thicknesses. The coast has the potential to do very well in such a set up. Sort of thing we’ve been waiting years for. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bollington
  • Location: Bollington
2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

Looks pretty poor, you can add 1 degree to those temps and the snow will be gone by 9am. if it even settels at all.

Compare that to the BBC App https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2639912

BBC has had this weekends temperatures spot on. (new Data Provider is getting something right)

Isn’t the new BBC website using raw ECM data now?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Latest model guidance for tomorrow's front...

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=5 - NMM

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=28&mode=1&map=330 - Arpege

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=26&mode=1&map=510 - ICON

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=430 - HIRLAM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_30_43.png - GFS

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/180205_0000_36.png - ECM

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/02/05/basis06/ukuk/prec/18020612_0506.gif - EURO4

All in all we have very good agreement now of the front making it across the NW without too much of a fizzle. Not a single model completely destroys the front before it clears our region, but the models disagree on the intensity of the precipitation. GFS and HIRLAM are keener for some heavier precipitation, ICON and EURO4 only really show light stuff towards Manchester and the Peaks. The models also disagree on the front's timing - the peak appears to be the morning around 10am but this varies by model.

For a change, more northern and western parts of the NW look likely to get the heavier snow - there could be some issues at rush hour in Liverpool and Preston for example. If we do get any accumulation, there could be some melting in the afternoon before a re-freeze after sunset.

It's notable that Euro4 is not modelling much snow accumulation across the region and this should be noted. 

The front could easily be more potent than the NWP suggests, but we won't know until the early hours. 12z guidance won't help us much IMO - it's a radar job from now.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

out of interest; even if Thursday night‘s front doesn’t fall as snow at all, Friday is currently looking like a day of snow showers in an NW flow with -9 850s and 515 dam thicknesses. The coast has the potential to do very well in such a set up. Sort of thing we’ve been waiting years for. 

Met office give 8C here Thursday and 5C Friday, not conductive to snow. It’ll be a day of rain and hail showers, anything that comes off the Irish Sea as of late 20 miles or less from the coast is purely hail and rubbishness

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Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.

Tonight and the early hours of the morning will see a short lived front of light snowfall make its way across the region giving a small accumulation of up to 2cm (max) at lower levels in parts of the region and the proverbial more on higher ground.

This is not a major event in the slightest. Any potential snowfall later in the week for our region will also be downgraded and will not lead to anything significant.

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