North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[Day 10]

11am tomorrow from icon, hirlam & arpege

Seems a better chance than this morning anyway.

 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Day 10

[Darren Bown]

March 2013 was amazing when I lived in a Westhoughton, memorable for the snow, and also personal reasons.

Mist has been thickening here since the rain cleared around 3pm. Interesting that Metoffice seem to think 1-2c all night here, it’s it’s already 0.4c and extremely icy.

[Darren Bown]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

11am tomorrow from icon, hirlam & arpege

Seems a better chance than this morning anyway.

 

Snow across the board then if those are to go by?

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Darren Bown said:

Snow across the board then if those are to go by?

You would thinkso but never works out like that does it

[Darren Bown]

Just now, Day 10 said:

You would thinkso but never works out like that does it

Nope! I’m not holding out any hope. Metoffice have me for a full rain event. It’ll be bitter tomorrow. I’m not going out. ?

[Day 10]

GFS 7am - 10am

[Darren Bown]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

GFS 7am - 10am

Not so good on that one. Most of the region more than -4c 850’s by 10am.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Darren Bown said:

Not so good on that one. Most of the region more than -4c 850’s by 10am.

Yeh, just got to hope we can hang on to that cold air as long as possible. But you already know mate, Merseyside is crap!

[Day 10]

Get the barbie on the go tomorrow night though! Sorry coast only, everywhere else is still bitter!

[itsnowjoke]

44 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Might get 5 minutes worth here if we're lucky

We are going to get jacks motion

[chicken soup]

March 2013 was a nightmare here...slushfest while 5 miles up the road in belthorn the drifts were up to car roof level.....not even considering tomorrow ...i shall have a lie in and the curtains will remain closed.

[Chris harry]

Wonder if this what's coming over the Irish sea will bring anything worthwhile.

[itsnowjoke]

All over get to sleep 

[itsnowjoke]

The only bitter I am feeling is the lack of my sidekick moki 

[itsnowjoke]

And day10 

[itsnowjoke]

And iand61

[itsnowjoke]

And to all my weather friends your all amazing too 

[iand61]

11 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

And to all my weather friends your all amazing too 

Have you been on the red wine or gas and air mate.

[Day 10]

14 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

And to all my weather friends your all amazing too 

The wine going down well then lol

[SP1986]

The dewpoint is 1C the air temperature is 1C and it won't move. If it stays like this all through the night it'll be a misty drzzlefest tomorrow. But at least at tomorrow at midnight I can don the shorts and go have a BBQ on the beach.

Edited January 21, 2018 by SP1986

[toggerob]

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk giving the Peak District a few cm of snow up to 12pm before the transition to rain.

[Deep Snow please]

It'll be heavy snow followed by heavy rain; because that's an awful combination and our weather is always awful. It'll be a "here's what you, could have had" end to the cold spell.

 

•  

Edited January 21, 2018 by reef
Swearing

[Backtrack]

Colder than forecast out there. Thick fog in parts. Dew so high because of fog. It’ll clear 

[Chris.R]

Right then. Sorry I’m late, was out for longer than expected. My thoughts on this morning then; hope there’s someone still around to read this. 

It is a rather interesting and slightly complex set up so I think it will be best to look at it in terms of layers of the atmosphere.

As we go through the early hours, The wind backs into the East-south-east and temperatures at the surface are near or below freezing. At first there is nothing unusual about the atmosphere, it gets colder the higher up you go. As we get towards 05:00 however, a layer  between about 2000-8000 feet begins to get colder. At the same time, the air above this begins to warm as the Atlantic waa arrives. although still remains below freezing all day. By about 09:00, when the precipitation has already got going, the top of the middle layer (4000-8000 feet) begins to warm substantially and by around 11:00 rises above freezing. This is an inversion layer. In the meantime, there is still a substantial layer of sub-zero air between about 800-4000 feet and this doesn’t get mixed out untill the early afternoon. Thus as we go through the morning, precipitation is likely to start as snow for mostwhen most of the atmosphere is below freezing. As the inversion layer develops however, snowflakes falling through it will melt and then refreeze as they fall into the sub-zero layer below. This gives the rare potential  for ice pellets. As this inversion grows The precipitation will have less and less time to refreeze on its way down to the surface and so freezing rain or just rain is then more likely.  

In summary: this is not your average Atlantic invasion, there are some interesting atmospheric dynamics at play here. Let’s see what happens. 

Edited January 21, 2018 by Chris.R

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Right then. Sorry I’m late, was out for longer than expected. My thoughts on this morning then; hope there’s someone still around to read this. 

It is a rather interesting and slightly complex set up so I think it will be best to look at it in terms of layers of the atmosphere.

As we go through the early hours, The wind backs into the East-south-east and temperatures at the surface are near or below freezing. At first there is nothing unusual about the atmosphere, it gets colder the higher up you go. As we get towards 05:00 however, a layer  between about 2000-8000 feet begins to get colder. At the same time, the air above this begins to warm as the Atlantic waa arrives. although still remains below freezing all day. By about 09:00, when the precipitation has already got going, the top of this middle layer (4000-8000) begins to warm substantially and by around 11:00 rises above freezing. This is an inversion layer. In the meantime, there is still a substantial layer of sub-zero air between about 800-4000 feet and this doesn’t get mixed out untill the early afternoon. Thus as we go through the morning, precipitation is likely to start as snow for mostwhen most of the atmosphere is below freezing. As the inversion layer develops however, snowflakes falling through it will melt and then refreeze as they fall into the sub-zero layer below. This gives the rare potential  for ice pellets. As this inversion grows The precipitation will have less and less time to refreeze on its way down to the surface and so freezing rain or just rain is then more likely.  

In summary: this is not your average Atlantic invasion, there are some interesting atmospheric dynamics at play here. Let’s see what happens. 

Or maybe just another letdown. Still misty here and rain is further along than forcast