North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[Mountain Snow]

9 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

There's still the SPINE race ongoing to the north of the Pennines currently with all the runners having been out on the Pennine Way since Sunday, starting at Edale and moving into Northumbria today. Thanks to NetWeather i've managed to relay some of the forecasts and charts over to the safety-team who have promptly put the race on-hold for overnight due to the predicted snow accumulations as they're well within the MetO amber-alert. 20cm for their neck of the woods and the race-leader already mentioning that past Bellingham it's waist-deep in drifts. There's still the Cheviots left to go before finishing at Kirk Yetholm.

Some tough conditions this year. Different breed those guys, no idea how they find the energy and motivation! 

 

Still no sign of any precipitation here despite what the radar shows.

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

to say northern blocking has become extinct is silly.

I do agree that since 1988 it seems to have gotten more difficult to get northern blocking in the right place for us due to an apparent increase in Atlantic energy- 

There have been exceptions to the rule in this cycle, ie 1991/1995/2001/2209/2010/2012 all of which had varying degrees of cold episodes.

But +NAO winters have become far too common for my liking.

We've had spells of significant northern blocking at times in recent years, but for cold snow lovers mostly in the summer when we don't want it. A run of very northern blocked summers in 2007-2012 period. The winters of 09/10, 10/11 and the unusual synoptics of March 2013 are reminders the weather can flip in a switch. Incidentally the 2007-2012 period came on the back of solar minima cycle, and we are rapidly descending into solar minima this year, so will be interesting to see what the next few years bring. One thing that has occurred the last 10 years has been the propensity for wildly fluctuating looping jet stream profiles, and if we are the cold side, locked in cold occurs.

I know many dismiss the impact of solar input, but I don't.

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just woke up from a nap and can confirm very light rain

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The only situation you'd get snow falling from positive uppers is if the air temps were significantly below freezing as the front moved in. Even then it'd more likely be freezing rain. Think about it, if the upper temps are above freezing, the precipitaion won't even be frozen (snow) as it falls from the clouds. 

Remember January last year? That really cold southerly and snow flakes were falling but the 850hpa were close to above 0C?

[Thunder Snow]

1 minute ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Just woke up from a nap and can confirm very light rain

great

[itsnowjoke]

Raining 

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

I know many dismiss the impact of solar input, but I don't.

 

I hold the impact of the sun in very high regard. After all, this is where our energy on earth stems from. The sun dictates pretty much everything. Also, it still hasn't been proven that the sun's output is a constant...even though all climatic models assume it to be...

 

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Remember January last year? That really cold southerly and snow flakes were falling but the 850hpa were close to above 0C?

There's a big difference between 'close to above 0' and +1/+2 above 0

Edited January 17, 2018 by CreweCold

[Chris.R]

7 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

-5C rule is completely irrelevant in any situation, especially nearer the coasts. It can be disregarded when there’s a much lower pressure gradient (I.E this low pressure system), as it can snow with positive uppers, even to low levels given conditions are ripe. 

Whoever came up with the -5 rule obviously doesn’t live in the UK. You’d want -9/-10 ideally here for proper, guaranteed snow. 

 Agree with that. After all it’s only a reference of temperature at a specific level of the atmosphere, it’s not the be all and end all . 

[Had Worse]

Sleeting in Hyde.
Just going to see a Pantomime so may come out to thick snow.....
Probably not.

[pip22]

The heavier stuff about to come in. Then again its prabably rain.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, pip22 said:

The heavier stuff about to come in. Then again its prabably rain.

Yep 

[gearbox100]

I can confirm it's raining heavy in st Helens. 

[Snow free zone]

Groundhog Day here .... Heavy rain 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Euro4 looks wrong at T0, that model has really gone down in my estimation.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

The arome is hundreds of miles out too

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Actually all of the models are

[Miamay]

Raining here

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Actually all of the models are

It's certainly a good bit further NE than the GFS placed it by 9pm

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Precipitation has pepped up a bit but still just sleet, though it does seem to be trying to turn to snow. Alas the heavy stuff is still to come, and I would suspect evaporative cooling will kick in when it does, whether we end up with a slush fest or something more substantial we shall see. Will report again in a couple of hours, by then the heavier stuff should have arrived.

Edited January 17, 2018 by damianslaw

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's certainly a good bit further NE than the GFS placed it by 9pm

And deeper according to xcweather 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

And deeper according to xcweather 

Well then it's a possibility southern parts of the region see some gales later on..

[Carl46Wrexham]

NIMBY speak here but this "cold spell" has been a pile of sh*te

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well then it's a possibility southern parts of the region see some gales later on..

Another half hour or so i think and will notice increased winds

[Had Worse]

"A pile of white"
Is that what you said?

[Chris.R]

Hasn’t really been a cold spell here, last week was colder.