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North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards


Deep Snow please

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
5 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Let’s be honest, last night was really disappointing. I maintain that the models and some of the forecasts did look really promising for our part of the world.

Sorry to anyone who was misled by any of my posts. :-( 

Euro 4 was a concern, it showed no lying snow to the west of the Pennines and it proved largely correct. I think it underestimated the shower activity though. If Euro 4 is not showing anything then perhaps we should take more notice. 

The mechanism for snowfall is complex and sometimes baffling. Last winter, saw snow falling from unspectacular uppers, whilst what appeared to be more favourable conditions, it was very marginal.

What surprised me last night, was how gusty the wind was. Was this a factor? 

I recall almost 3 years ago of another disappointment, it was also very gusty and it was marginal but the gustiness of the wind dropped and the snow fell during the morning leaving a covering. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.
9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Maybe an hour or two for high ground but the boundary will be between Carlisle and Kendal and even here high ground will be needed

Bang on!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

We have about 3 hours of heavy precipitation before the wind beers on shore again and 850s go positive. Winds fall quite light so evaporative cooling will drop the temperature surprisingly quickly under heavy precipitation. I would say there is a moderate chance, about 60%  of seeing some very transient snow anywhere this evening. 

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
29 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Correct

Although BBC weather graphics showed different 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Euro 4 was a concern, it showed no lying snow to the west of the Pennines and it proved largely correct. I think it underestimated the shower activity though. If Euro 4 is not showing anything then perhaps we should take more notice. 

The mechanism for snowfall is complex and sometimes baffling. Last winter, saw snow falling from unspectacular uppers, whilst what appeared to be more favourable conditions, it was very marginal.

What surprised me last night, was how gusty the wind was. Was this a factor? 

I recall almost 3 years ago of another disappointment, it was also very gusty and it was marginal but the gustiness of the wind dropped and the snow fell during the morning leaving a covering. 

Yes it was. See my post the other day about the two problems with the set up. The strong wind increase the modification from the sea and negated the effects of evaporative cooling. It also allowed showers less time to develop before hitting land. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

This wintry spell was no where near the let down that was last month’s, but still a little disappointing. Looks like tonight will be rain away from hills too, and even the strongest winds will be south of the region.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

Another problem here was that three quarters of what fell from the sky here was soft hail. Which does create a nice base for snow, but there wasn’t much of it.

Edited by Alexis
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Yes it was. See my post the other day about the two problems with the set up. The strong wind increase the modification from the sea and negated the effects of evaporative cooling. It also allowed showers less time to develop before hitting land. 

The Strong winds help create the showers or without the strength of the winds would we have seen just as heavy but slower moving showers? 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW!! lots of SNOW!!! with a little lightning :)
  • Location: Wirral

HI all!

New here, but coming from the Wirral, after all the fuss I am really disappointed with this week (again)

the last laying snow I saw was 2012 :(

it feels like the seasons are losing definition, no proper summer, no proper winter. just jumbled up mush :(

oh well, maybe next time, though I suspect "next time" will be December or even 2019,, Meh! 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Euro 4 was a concern, it showed no lying snow to the west of the Pennines and it proved largely correct. I think it underestimated the shower activity though. If Euro 4 is not showing anything then perhaps we should take more notice. 

The mechanism for snowfall is complex and sometimes baffling. Last winter, saw snow falling from unspectacular uppers, whilst what appeared to be more favourable conditions, it was very marginal.

What surprised me last night, was how gusty the wind was. Was this a factor? 

I recall almost 3 years ago of another disappointment, it was also very gusty and it was marginal but the gustiness of the wind dropped and the snow fell during the morning leaving a covering. 

Height was also a huge factor last night, I had snow cover here at 93m on the grass which is still there in bits but it didn't accumulate much on the paved areas, however just 20m higher up on Coal Pit Lane there was a full covering on the pavement/road as well as the grass. Then I went to a relatives in Newton Heath (75m asl) but there was no snow whatsoever not even on grassy areas. It seems last night was very marginal and largely depended on high up one was.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Looking good for Cumbria this evening to get a pasting if albeit any lying snow at low levels will probably not last as the winds off the sea will soon return by the morning but enjoy it whilst it lasts I say,

Unfortunately the models kind of always said it be Southern Scotland and Northern England that will see it, some did correct a bit southwards but from here southwards, then its going to be mostly rain I feel, uppers are just to mild and the centre of the low is to far north so winds will switch anyways.

You never know though, around here is right on the borderline but if I was in Carlisle, I'll be looking forward to tonight's event.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The Strong winds help create the showers or without the strength of the winds would we have seen just as heavy but slower moving showers? 

Neither, the strong winds blew the showers into land before they'd had enough time to develop. Had those winds not have been there they'd have beefed up into the north sea and then moved in slowly given us a few inches of definite snow cover in most areas as it would've coincided with colder uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossendale Valley 1000ft asl
  • Location: Rossendale Valley 1000ft asl
6 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Height was also a huge factor last night, I had snow cover here at 93m on the grass which is still there in bits but it didn't accumulate much on the paved areas, however just 20m higher up on Coal Pit Lane there was a full covering on the pavement as well as the grass. Then I went to a relatives in Newton Heath (75m asl) but there was no snow whatsoever not even on grassy areas. It seems last night was very marginal and largely depended on high up one was.

At 1000ft we still have lying snow on the grass etc it was melting on the cobbles but the drip seems to have stopped now and we have recently had another hail shower. The wind is picking up and it is bitter outside.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

And what is irritating is the text forecast for the region tonight.

Some snow to low levels and an overnight low of -3c

Now then might be an idea to say low level snow in Cumbria which is likely,but no

Some low level snow to low levels...where???? NW England covers a big area

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

And what is irritating is the text forecast for the region tonight.

Some snow to low levels and an overnight low of -3c

Now then might be an idea to say low level snow in Cumbria which is likely,but no

Some low level snow to low levels...where???? NW England covers a big area

C.S

That's laughable really! :D

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

And what is irritating is the text forecast for the region tonight.

Some snow to low levels and an overnight low of -3c

Now then might be an idea to say low level snow in Cumbria which is likely,but no

Some low level snow to low levels...where???? NW England covers a big area

C.S

It's going to be expensive to make a forecast for each area of the NW of England 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It's going to be expensive to make a forecast for each area of the NW of England 

Numerous times in the past, they have been more specific about parts of the region affected by wind/snow etc. Leads one to assume they may mean the whole region. Not saying it will be the case, just an observation.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

And what is irritating is the text forecast for the region tonight.

Some snow to low levels and an overnight low of -3c

Now then might be an idea to say low level snow in Cumbria which is likely,but no

Some low level snow to low levels...where???? NW England covers a big area

C.S

No it will rain tonight. I'd be surprised otherwise.

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It's going to be expensive to make a forecast for each area of the NW of England 

I agree but come on they must have an idea of were the threat is for example North Lancashire,Greater Manchester ETC should seems so shoddy to me,it' like me telling my customers I am going to send your  plane to some were in Spain.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

I agree but come on they must have an idea of were the threat is for example North Lancashire,Greater Manchester ETC should seems so shoddy to me,it' like me telling my customers I am going to send your  plane to some were in Spain.

C.S

would you mind which bit of Spain as long as it has snow? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
12 minutes ago, pip22 said:

No it will rain tonight. I'd be surprised otherwise.

I have no doubt about it pip my point is the text forecast is so poor from a professional 

Organisation no wonder folk get frustrated it does really border embarrassing 

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Quick heads up to FG..

BBC app has you for heavy snow showers tomorrow and fri :)

GFS has uppers of -6 on said days which will be enough for 300m 

bbc had heavy snow for me yesterday but i think they confused me with Scotland 

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