North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[Mountain Snow]

Forecast has improved for here tonight, be nice to top up this snow and it should keep a cover until Sunday. But we shall see I now know to not get excited until a big red blob on the radar is within 5 miles!

[Hocus Pocus]

I think many are disappointed because at the start of the week this had our name  written all over - 7c / -8c uppers DP at or below freezing and a unstable W/NW flow......... What could possibly go wrong. 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I think many are disappointed because at the start of the week this had our name  written all over - 7c / -8c uppers DP at or below freezing and a unstable W/NW flow......... What could possibly go wrong. 

With respect to your user name, they misread the spell

[cheshire snow]

Arpege Model PPN Charts showing 4-8cm for high Ground Manchester North So Some places could see snow later

C.S

[Thunder Snow]

30 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Surprise surprise, coastal cumbria out of the warning again, while north east coast is in? Cba with this anymore

im going for rain tonight if last night is anything to go by

[Barmada_Casten]

1 minute ago, Thunder Snow said:

im going for rain tonight if last night is anything to go by

Yeah same here - any snow will be confined to the hills. Lower levels in  Cumbria will get a smeltering mix of wimpy hail and sleet similar to last night. Can't say I'm surprised by the outcome of the last few days, as you lads know we have been here so many times before. Looking to the future there is no real potential for any significant snow or cold spell in the immediate future, rest if the winter is looking like a write off, dominated by the mild Atlantic.

[pip22]

Just raining here.

[Barmada_Casten]

Thread has gone very quiet which generally sums up the mood of a lot of people here, Fed up and let down. It is certainly up there with one of the lowest points in my 15 years on this forum, and there has been many I may add, a very sad tale indeed. 

[cheshire snow]

10 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Yeah same here - any snow will be confined to the hills. Lower levels in  Cumbria will get a smeltering mix of wimpy hail and sleet similar to last night. Can't say I'm surprised by the outcome of the last few days, as you lads know we have been here so many times before. Looking to the future there is no real potential for any significant snow or cold spell in the immediate future, rest if the winter is looking like a write off, dominated by the mild Atlantic.

And more teases to come tomorrow as the LP clears colder air comes back in with Frequent Wintry Showers 

c.s

[Had Worse]

11 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

And more teases to come tomorrow as the LP clears colder air comes back in with Frequent Wintry Showers 

c.s

A positive comment.

Must remember to allow one tenth of the precip snow modelled by GFS, other models are available, please deduct ammounts as appropriate.

Yest,Thurday evening and into Friday (Oh and Sunday) look like the last bits meat on the bone for now.

[dodge]

I suppose if I raise my expectations to a lofty level, there might just be a smidgen of a chance of some wintry sleet tonight as the low comes inland, but I don't think it will last long.  The BBC have it embedded up to the north and sitting over the north east.  Then a fierce cut back of north westerlies as it exits from the east, might give a bit of wintry weather.  The Met O have some pretty decent equipment to pinning the short range summantics down, but even they can be thrown a googly every now and again.  We'll just have to wait and see what the low does overnight.  Who will get the snowy blizzards, who will get the driving rain?  The LOW DECIDES!

[karyo]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Shortwave have always existed and are created by two different air masses advances either CAA over Warm are or WAA over Cold

Warmer seas give more fuel to shortwaves in the expense of northern blocking. The difference is even more pronounced on areas that used to be covered by ice but the ice has gone. Why do you think the blocking that models often show gets watered down or disappears completely as we approach T0?

Edited January 17, 2018 by karyo

[Weather-history]

 

[SP1986]

Whatever happens is a win win situation for me ... Adaptibility is the way forward. I find this new warmer era fascinating in itself and how fast it's accelerating.

Maybe the Bartlett High (which is fairly rare despite the milder climate) might rear it's head towards month's end.

Edited January 17, 2018 by SP1986

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Warmer seas give more fuel to shortwaves in the expense of northern blocking. The difference is even more pronounced on areas that used to be covered by ice but the ice has gone. Why do you think the blocking that models often show gets watered down or disappears completely as we approach T0?

Why do people that that short wave, feature low down in the atmosphere are capable of derailing upper atmosphere blocks?

The shortwave spoilers (as Nick in the MO thread calls them) are symptoms not the cause.


 

[Day 10]

5 hours ago, Nicholas B said:

Not great is it, back in the 80's we used to get two or three falls per winter (even if it didnt last a day) and i thought that was pretty dire compared to the rest of the country. But these days every event is very marginal which means cold rain for us on the lowlands. Even in 2010 we were lucky by a streamer setting up for an hour which meant we werent the only place on that famous sat photo without snow, i have had no lying snow since that day. Never mind, i guess at least we get the sun in summer....oh wait hang on ?

 

5 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Let’s be honest, last night was really disappointing. I maintain that the models and some of the forecasts did look really promising for our part of the world.

Sorry to anyone who was misled by any of my posts. :-( 

 

4 hours ago, chris78 said:

No need to apologise Joe,  looking for positive chats and forecasts is fine, its a weather forum and we all (most) want snow.   Its what people do after reading the posts,  to think there is a chance of snow, or this something to keep in eye, seems a normal response, even after after all the failed chances.   To think, wow tell the kids, book a day off work, buy a sledge, seems like settting your self up for disappointment (unless you live up a hill).

 

Surely if you live in far west Lancashire/Cumbria/Merseyside you have been let down enough times to start building a self defence mechanism?   Particularly with this one, its not like it ever looked nailed on, I cant understand why anyone in the snow starved areas could have been anything other than very doubtful. 

First off, Joe you don't need to apologize to anybody, I think several of us always try to forecast based on the best of our ability. This forum is so good to read and with banter thrown in it's very easy to end up in here for a few hours at a time. Anybody putting their neck on the line trying to predict snow has my full respect, so keep at it mate

 

Yes Nicholas I fully agree mate, it's been stated on here numerous times back in the 80's and other times things were so much better than they are now even for places on the coast. I thought 5 years was bad but you are really really unlucky to have not seen any lying snow since Dec 2010

 

As for me and looking through the models today my disappointment generally comes from the last 5 years as a whole, I wasn't expecting much here yesterday but what has tipped me over the edge was the hope of the last 3 days of that low trending ever South. We nearly had our first proper snow event for all for years. Our luck is just truly dreadful. So the wait here goes on.

The outlook looks poor to me and nothing too exciting that is going to produce snow or lying snow right down to the coast. Yes it's still mid-winter and I will never give up hope but it's time for a break.

Good luck to anyone further inland, upland and further North especially as that low could turn out well for you.

See you all in here soon

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Why do people that that short wave, feature low down in the atmosphere are capable of derailing upper atmosphere blocks?

The shortwave spoilers (as Nick in the MO thread calls them) are symptoms not the cause.


 

Whether they are the symptom or the cause the result is the same. Sea temperatures are rising, air temperatures are rising, sea ice is reducing and the days of snow cover are plummeting! 

[frosty ground]

Just now, karyo said:

Whether they are the symptom or the cause the result is the same. Sea temperatures are rising, air temperatures are rising, sea ice is reducing and the days of snow cover are plummeting! 

You said increased sea temperatures are creating shortwave..... (they are not) Short wave are created by two different air masses meeting usually one advocating over the other.
Short waves are not stopping blocks from forming, they are not redirecting the Jet.
The world is getting warmer that much is true, is this affecting our winters? who knows, but the UK has had spells of warmer and colder winters in the past and even with the background warming the same will still be true.
 

[itsnowjoke]

Well just looked at the met office warnings and only in the warning for wind so no snow then 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

You said increased sea temperatures are creating shortwave..... (they are not) Short wave are created by two different air masses meeting usually one advocating over the other.
Short waves are not stopping blocks from forming, they are not redirecting the Jet.
The world is getting warmer that much is true, is this affecting our winters? who knows, but the UK has had spells of warmer and colder winters in the past and even with the background warming the same will still be true.
 

Like I said the warmer seas are fueling the shortwaves so they gain more strength. The shortwave that the models picked up a few days ago is tonight's full blown low. It interrupts our cold air. Also, it has made the Atlantic pattern flatter where a few days ago a ridge looked like was going to develop. 

How can a warmer world and hence warmer oceans not affect our winters? Do you think our little island is an exception to the trend? 

Finally, nobody said there won't be any cold winters again so I don't know where you got that from? They are becoming a rarity but they will still happen.

[Backtrack]

Isn’t looking so bad from where I’m sat?

Rather stubborn cold air in place, evaporative cooling and ever-lowering pressure. I’d be surprised if we don’t see a spell of wintryness from this. Classic little battleground. 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Like I said the warmer seas are fueling the shortwaves so they gain more strength. The shortwave that the models picked up a few days ago is tonight's full blown low. It interrupts our cold air. Also, it has made the Atlantic pattern flatter where a few days ago a ridge looked like was going to develop. 

How can a warmer world and hence warmer oceans not affect our winters? Do you think our little island is an exception to the trend? 

Finally, nobody said there won't be any cold winters again so I don't know where you got that from? They are becoming a rarity but they will still happen.

The ridge failing has nothing to do with tonight low, in fact there where a few runs with the low and a ridge still followed.

 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Isn’t looking so bad from where I’m sat?

Rather stubborn cold air in place, evaporative cooling and ever-lowering pressure. I’d be surprised if we don’t see a spell of wintryness from this. Classic little battleground. 

Maybe an hour or two for high ground but the boundary will be between Carlisle and Kendal and even here high ground will be needed

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Well just looked at the met office warnings and only in the warning for wind so no snow then 

Correct

[joggs]

6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Isn’t looking so bad from where I’m sat?

Rather stubborn cold air in place, evaporative cooling and ever-lowering pressure. I’d be surprised if we don’t see a spell of wintryness from this. Classic little battleground. 

Yes if it come in 100 miles or so South. Otherwise just transient snow higher up.But at least the cold makes a return as it scoots through.

It's not classic battleground for me.

Classic battleground for me is strong Scandi high with lows making slow inroads from the sw giving copious amounts of snow.