North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[Day 10]

Hmmm. Not seen any charts as yet but not sounding good to me by what people are saying regarding tonight. It will be 5 years in March without lying snow here, that is so so poor coast or no coast! Once i've had a proper look at models an realise it's not happening again, then I think I am taking a break from it all. The outlook sounds crap too. Proper cold spells are a rare beast these days and it's not a good trend, it better be a blip in the grand sheme of things as this fruitless chasing is becoming tiring. Once the 1000th letdown is comfirmed i'll prob check in to say see you all for a bit. 

[swainclubber]

1 to 2 cm here. Most certainly been rained on. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Feels like ill never see lying snow again, just constantly never happens even when forcast

[Miamay]

4 hours ago, loubie_4 said:

Where you work Miamay? 

Copy Lane P.S for my sins

[Yorkshirepudding]

1 hour ago, joggs said:

2.5 deg here and rainy sleet lol.

Don't hold out much hope for tonight.

I'm in west York's.

Showers just died a death through night and though there was quite a few around.

 

I'm only afew miles away from you Joggs. 

Given I live on the moorside I've got around 2". We are still very much in the game for some more Snow Showers this morning calming down after dinner. But we are still very much still in the game for tonight/Early hours tomorrow for snow. The Forcasters are still very uncertain the exact track as it stands we will get a period of snow/Sleet depending on elevation on the leading edge turning to rain for a breef time before becoming cold again. But it the Low tracks in 50miles south of its current projection we could see an all snow even with some substantial snow accumulations. Again more for higher ground but maybe a further couple of inches at least to lower levels. But like I said the track is key we want to be just north of the centre we are currently around the centre if we go by the forcast on tv. 

[Miamay]

Strong winds and bitterlycold

[i luv snow]

Temp has dropped down to 2oC again here, very annoying as all that heavier ppn fell as sleet/rain which melted what snow I had!

[captaincroc]

Looking like the positioning has firmed up more overnight for the low.  Looks like Cumbria is in a sweet spot, will only take a small shift for Lancashire to come to the party.  I reckon i will need a miracle for me to be in the firing line. Last chance saloon will be the 6zs to see if a last min shift is picked up on.

[Day 10]

I will give it til this afternoon to decide whether I continue in here or take a break. The last 5 years have been an utter joke!

[Mountain Snow]

2 1/2 inches from overnight snow, not too bad. Let's see how much, if any, we get tonight. 

[karyo]

16 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Looking like the positioning has firmed up more overnight for the low.  Looks like Cumbria is in a sweet spot, will only take a small shift for Lancashire to come to the party.  I reckon i will need a miracle for me to be in the firing line. Last chance saloon will be the 6zs to see if a last min shift is picked up on.

Forget it! Rainfest for all of us tonight (apart from Cumria of course)

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karyo said:

Forget it! Rainfest for all of us tonight (apart from Cumria of course)

Yup, think its a dud.

Shame, that bbc forecast last night had me dreaming.

Horrid slushy mess outside here now.

o well.

[Troubleatmill]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I will give it til this afternoon to decide whether I continue in here or take a break. The last 5 years have been an utter joke!

Not great is it, back in the 80's we used to get two or three falls per winter (even if it didnt last a day) and i thought that was pretty dire compared to the rest of the country. But these days every event is very marginal which means cold rain for us on the lowlands. Even in 2010 we were lucky by a streamer setting up for an hour which meant we werent the only place on that famous sat photo without snow, i have had no lying snow since that day. Never mind, i guess at least we get the sun in summer....oh wait hang on ?

[Joe Bloggs]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, think its a dud.

Shame, that bbc forecast last night had me dreaming.

Horrid slushy mess outside here now.

o well.

Let’s be honest, last night was really disappointing. I maintain that the models and some of the forecasts did look really promising for our part of the world.

Sorry to anyone who was misled by any of my posts. :-( 

[Snowmusic]

I was following the radar a lot of the evening and it felt weird...nothing when we looked to be under thick cloud or showers and squalls when it should have been clear. But a bit too soon to write off winter yet, as frustrating as this little episode has been. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

Let’s be honest, last night was really disappointing. I maintain that the models and some of the forecasts did look really promising for our part of the world.

Sorry to anyone who was misled by any of my posts. :-( 

TBH Joe you dont have to apologize to anyone

I think its fair to say we need uppers of -7 or below from anything off the Atlantic- lower down areas probably need -8 or below,as a general rule of thumb so we have all learned something.

 

The 00z runs are about as bad as it gets- TBH im thinking it will be Feb before we get another op-although the models look terrible things can change so lets all hope we get something for everyone - in the meantime its time for a break for me, hopefully the higher parts of the region will see some snow showers tomorrow night but euro4 looks crap for our region out to 48hrs so i wouldnt be holding my breath on that.

Good luck , take care guys..

[chris78]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Let’s be honest, last night was really disappointing. I maintain that the models and some of the forecasts did look really promising for our part of the world.

Sorry to anyone who was misled by any of my posts. :-( 

No need to apologise Joe,  looking for positive chats and forecasts is fine, its a weather forum and we all (most) want snow.   Its what people do after reading the posts,  to think there is a chance of snow, or this something to keep in eye, seems a normal response, even after after all the failed chances.   To think, wow tell the kids, book a day off work, buy a sledge, seems like settting your self up for disappointment (unless you live up a hill).

 

Surely if you live in far west Lancashire/Cumbria/Merseyside you have been let down enough times to start building a self defence mechanism?   Particularly with this one, its not like it ever looked nailed on, I cant understand why anyone in the snow starved areas could have been anything other than very doubtful. 

[dodge]

Yep big disappointment last night a) in the way the temps never seemed to reach a conducive point to turn ice/sleet/slush/hail into fluffy white flakey goodness, and b) how the showers lost a lot of momentum after ganging up over Northern Ireland and flowing over the Irish Sea.  Yes as usual the very highest parts have done a little better but upto 200m it's a......

"Slushy Mess" <===== could sum up winter 2017/18 for me if I had to stick a label on it at present from my point of view.  More slush on the way tonight presumably?

[chicken soup]

I to have had enough of these letdowns now...time to accept that the climate has changed for the worse....i shall never believe another weather model again.

[Frost HoIIow]

Disappointing to wake up to a slushy covering, looks like most of the snow has been washed away in the night, in reality it's been a winter that has promised so much but delivered slush puppy lol to be honest we need an easterly like Jan 2013 that delivered 6 inches of powdery snow here, anything from the west is just garbage imo. Too much modification from the Irish sea. 

[frosty ground]

3-4 inches last night even after a slight thaw, not a bad effort, once I dropped down into oldham it looks like an inch or so.

So after all the predictions once again the Met Office comes out on top, warning where spot. @Joe Bloggs your predictions where fine with the output at the time, but as is the norm with these situation slight adjustments make a difference.

[frosty ground]

So after today's thaw and tonight spell of slightly windy weather thursday and Friday is looking to produce some more falling snow, may even settle over night. The heavy thundery snow showers look to be behind us now thou which is a shame.

[captaincroc]

Just now, frosty ground said:

3-4 inches last night even after a slight thaw, not a bad effort, once I dropped down into oldham it looks like an inch or so.

So after all the predictions once again the Met Office comes out on top, warning where spot. @Joe Bloggs your predictions where fine with the output at the time, but as is the norm with these situation slight adjustments make a difference.

I agree, Joe, your input is so valued and you have a balanced head too, you were just reading the models. Yes, the past few days have been frustrating. We had snow last night, was beautiful and covering as the ground was frozen and then yet again (happened last year too) warmer uppers came and upped the temps so I woke with a thaw? WTF?! Even at 180m?

This is by no means a 'told you so' post but when i saw these uppers modelled from a westerly I thought the wind might modify but as so many parameters were on our side I thought we would be safe... I think I will stick to my polar northwesterlys in a light breeze (less mixing and colder evening temps).

 

[SP1986]

Just to depress all the coastal dwellers... In the last 5 years Athens has had more instances of snow than coastal NW England

Edited January 17, 2018 by SP1986

[wrightc23]

21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

3-4 inches last night even after a slight thaw, not a bad effort, once I dropped down into oldham it looks like an inch or so.

So after all the predictions once again the Met Office comes out on top, warning where spot. @Joe Bloggs your predictions where fine with the output at the time, but as is the norm with these situation slight adjustments make a difference.

The MetO do seem to be on a good run particularly of highlighting non events. I'm still clinging to the thought of the upcoming solar minimum in 2019-2020!