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​​​​​​​LEARNING ABOUT TELECONNECTION SCIENCE AND BACKGROUND SIGNALS

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF ADVANCEMENTS IN METEOROLOGY AND TELECONNECTION SCIENCE

Over the years we have seen enormous advances in meteorology and many of us often take for granted some of the theoretical and technological developments, observational equipment, instruments and other forecasting tools that have helped develop our knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere and earth’s climate. In this post, I will take a look back at some of these developments including those in the early days of teleconnection science.

Ancient History Through to the Middle Ages:

There is evidence of some meteorological practices from very early in our history. Around 5,000 years ago some of the writings from early Indian literature (such as the “Upanishads”) contains details about cloud formation, rain and the seasons cycles related to earth’s orbit around the sun. Then around 2,500 years ago, the ancient Greeks started to predict changes in the weather and made seasonal forecasts for crops. Aristotle produced a study which demonstrated a broad understanding of the earth sciences including climate and weather. The word meteorology stems from the Greek “meteoros” which means “high in the sky” and related to rain bearing clouds. Several books on weather forecasting followed a few years later.  There are also weather references from the days of the Chinese and Roman empires. There is plenty of evidence that basic meteorological understanding gathered pace during the Middle Ages with various books, papers and charts. Some of these relate to natural events like the Indian Monsoon seasons. Various atmospheric phenomena are described and explained. A number of theories were put forward to describe the causes of extreme types of weather with detailed accounts of historic events, such as floods, drought, storms, intense heat and severe cold. Some observations and records were kept. Such things like the measurement of the earth’s atmosphere were remarkably accurate, for example the height was shown as equivalent to 49 miles which is only 1 mile out! The earliest weather diaries and daily records date back to the 13th and 14th centuries.

The 15th to 18th Centuries:

slide_3.jpg

 

In 1494 Christopher Columbus experienced an Atlantic hurricane and this led to the first European account of this phenomena. Then we start to see the inventions and development of recording instruments and observations. The first type of anemometer (to measure wind strength) and the first hygrometer (to measure humidity) date from 1450. It is believed that Galileo constructed the first thermoscope to measure temperatures in 1607. The mercury barometer was invented in 1643. The first weather observation network was established in several European countries in 1654. Sir Christopher Wren invented the first “self-emptying tipping bucket rain gauge” in 1662.  In 1686 Edmund Halley (the “comet” man – pictured above) produced a study of the trade winds, monsoons and identified that “solar heating” was the cause of atmospheric motions. He went onto describe the relationship between barometric pressure and height above sea level. In 1716,  he suggested that aurorae were caused by magnetic effluvia moving along the Earth's magnetic field lines. Arguably, one could say that some of Halley’s theories were the early stages of teleconnection science. In 1735 George Hadley was the first to explain global circulation. In 1724 Gabriel Fahrenheit developed a reliable scale for measuring temperature with a mercury-type thermometer. This was followed up in 1742 by Anders Celsius and his temperature scale which led to the current Celsius scale. In 1780 the first maximum/minimum thermometer was invented. In 1794 the Royal Society started twice daily observations at various British locations.

The 19th and 20th Centuries:

slide_5.jpg

 

From the early 19th century onwards, inventions and advances in understanding really gathered pace. I shall just mention some of the key ones (and I may well have missed out quite a few). In 1802, cloud types were described and given Latin names. In 1806 Beaufort produced his scale for wind speeds. In 1817 Humboldt produced a map of world average temperatures and the first global climate analysis. In 1820 the first synoptic weather maps appeared (see chart above). In 1823 we see the first world chart of isotherms and temperatures. In 1840 we saw the earliest theories of weather fronts. In 1844 the aneroid barometer and in 1846 the cup anemometer were invented. In 1853 the first international meteorological conference convened which led to the use of various worldwide observational standards for weather reports as well as shipping logs. Networks had already been establishing and the telegraph was used to communicate readings, records and observations – the precursor to the issuing of weather forecasts with the first storm warnings issued in 1854. In 1856 Ferrel publishes his research into winds and ocean currents (teleconnection science now well underway). In 1860 Robert FitzRoy used the telegraph to assemble daily observations from across England and produced the first synoptic charts and official English weather forecasts. In 1873 we had the first hurricane warning. In 1892 the term "El Niño" was first used when Peruvian sailors had identified warm northerly currents that were “most noticeable around Christmas” (El Nino is Spanish for the “Christ Child”).

In 1902 European scientists discovered the stratosphere and Marconi issues the first shipping forecasts by radio. In 1903 Margules publishes a paper on the atmosphere as a 3-D thermodynamical machine. In 1905 ships started to submit weather reports. In 1904 Bjerknes demonstrates that weather forecasting can be based on mathematical methods. In 1920 Milanković is the first to suggest that long term climatic cycles may be due to changes in the Earth's orbit. In 1922 Lewis Fry Richardson organises the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) experiment. In 1923 the effects of ENSO (the El Nino Southern Oscillation) were outlined by Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker (the “Walker” circulation is now an important aspect of this teleconnection – see image below) and in 1924 he introduced the term "Southern Oscillation".  In 1930 Molchanov invented the first radiosonde to measure temperatures up to 8 km high. In 1933 Schauberger published his theories on the carbon cycle and its relationship to the weather.  In 1935 the 30 years “normal period” is used for the first time for 1900–1930 (now the 30 year “mean”) to describe various measures of the climate. In 1938 Callendar was the first to suggest that global warming came from carbon dioxide emissions.

slide_49.jpg                   1101561217_400.jpg

In 1939 Rossby waves were first identified in the atmosphere by Carl-Gustaf Arvid Rossby (pictured above) who explained their motion. (Rossby waves are a subset of inertial waves and you can learn a lot more about them from our teleconnection specialists during the coming few weeks). 1941 sees the first pulsed radar network in England (used during World War II) when they accidentally started to notice echoes from rain and snow and in 1944 “The Great Atlantic Hurricane” was the first hurricane to be captured on radar near the mid-Atlantic coast (it caused massive destruction with highest winds of 233 km/h, lowest pressure of 933 mb and maintained tropical storm status for 8 days and caused fatalities of 300–400 with damage of $100 million in 1944 values or equivalent to $1.38 billion today). In 1947 the first long range ballistic rocket was launched and this provided the first photographs which observed weather from space. 1950 saw the first successful numerical weather prediction experiment.

In 1953 NOAA creates the National Hurricane Centre and naming hurricanes using alphabetical lists of women's names. 1954 saw the first routine real-time numerical weather forecasting. 1955 saw the first atmospheric general circulation model. The 1950s saw the introduction of weather fax charts – the US first used facsimile machines to transmit weather charts across the country and other countries quickly adopted the process. 1957 saw research efforts focus on polar areas during the solar maximum. 1959 saw the first weather satellite, Vanguard 2, which was designed to measure cloud cover but it malfunctioned. Then in 1960 we saw the first successful weather satellite, TIROS-1 (Television Infrared Observation Satellite) was launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) showing photographs and pictures of the structure of large-scale cloud regimes and demonstrated that satellites can provide very important surveillance of global weather conditions from space. In 1961 Edward Lorenz accidentally discovers “chaos theory when working on numerical weather prediction. In 1969 the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale was created (showing hurricane strengths on a category from 1 to 5.

Back to teleconnections and in 1969 Jacob Bjerknes described ENSO as “an anomalously warm spot in the eastern Pacific which can weaken the east-west temperature difference, causing weakening in the Walker circulation and trade wind flows, which push warm water to the west”. In the 1970s weather radars were standardized with a development of networks. In 1971 Ted Fujita introduces the Fujita scale for rating tornadoes. In 1992 computers were first used to draw surface analyses and 1998 saw major advances in which allowed for the digital underlying of satellite imagery, radar imagery, model data, and surface observations improving the quality of surface analyses.

Into the 21st Century:

hpc002-resized.jpg

The 21st century has seen major leaps forward in the use of technology. The accuracy of the current official 5-7 day detailed forecasts are similar to that of 1 day forecasts from 50 years ago. The accuracy of experimental 8-10 day forecasts is comparable to that of the 5–7 day forecasts when they were first officially provided 15 years ago. Even with the use of super computers (like the Met Office’s £97m 2017 model shown above) and other sophisticated forecasting tools it is thought that that accuracy of detailed forecasts much beyond 15 days will be a struggle to achieve in the foreseeable future. This is where the development and application of some of the teleconnections can come into their own. An often misunderstood aspect of this is that we are not looking at detailed weather forecasts for any particular location but at changes in broader weather patterns. It is by analysing the background signals and the drivers that control the model output where we can make the biggest advances, including longer range and seasonal forecasting. For those of you like me, who will learn on this thread, understanding how angular momentum (AAM) and the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) in conjunction with the ENSO state, influence the weather patterns, where ridges and troughs set up, where blocking occurs and how the Jet Stream behaves will open your eyes to some exciting possibilities.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRCD3koZ_ZW_UFkVgmTci_

Over to the specialists!

I want to learn a lot more from our specialists about this fascinating subject. I also want to gain a broader knowledge of some of the other teleconnections. The one thing I've learnt over the years is never to dismiss any theories however bizarre they might seem initially. So, I always keep an open mind even if I'm pretty sceptical about certain things. This is, of course, a fundamental rule that applies to all scientific research and to all those advances and inventions that I outlined in the “history” part above.  Unfortunately funding issues (who controls the purse strings) and politics (who controls the agendas) very often clouds the picture, particularly for key issues like Global Warming and Climate Change. I can’t wait to participate in some of the discussions that we hope will develop on this thread.

 

 

Edited by Bring Back1962-63
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HERE’S AN EXAMPLE OF HOW SOME FRIENDLY INTERACTION CAN REALLY HELP LEARNERS LIKE ME

Last week (on January 4th), I produced my most recent long post on the model thread. This was on the “December 30th 2017” thread - one that was closed yesterday by Paul. The post appears on page 122 of that thread and if you wish to refer to it, here’s the link to that page:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89088-model-output-discussion-into-2018/?page=112

I’ll just copy the introduction to that post and the key paragraphs (that I want to use to make my point) below:

"WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

In this post, I want to very briefly review the short to medium term period and then I will look slightly further ahead. I am very busy, so I will not have time for one of my thorough cross-model analyses and anyway, there has been a far larger number of posts than usual examining the model output (can’t think why!). I will take another look at northern hemisphere temperatures again (some much better news here for us going forward). It’s a month since I last updated my Arctic ice and temperature indicators, so I’ll do this now and we have the very latest monthly Arctic report released yesterday (more very bad news here). Despite all this, I will be painting a much more optimistic picture for later this month.

LOOKING SLIGHTLY FURTHER AHEAD:  

How the unusual (and recently changing) La Nina pattern interacts with the AAM (etc.) is also very important. The east Pacific based La Nina with the cold current upwellings there and the now almost average ocean temperatures in the central and western Pacific have created a profile which is unlikely to follow the normal Nina winter behaviour and impacts. No more detail but just to say that the current set up is much more likely to have favourable impacts compared to the usual Nina ENSO state.

Then we have the recent NOAA reports that have suggested a much more lively MJO as it moves out of the “circle of death” and progresses through phases 2 and 3 at a steadily increasing amplitude. Given the timing of the 30 to 45 day full cycle, we should reach the important stages of 7, 8 and 1 later this month. Providing the MJO doesn’t die again, then that should substantially assist with establishing HLB patterns. Ideally (for coldies), we would like to see the MJO remain in those key phases for as long as possible at decent amplitude.

Then we have the thoroughly disrupted tropospheric PV. There has been a huge battle for the seasonal peaks in the strength of the PV and the Jet Stream against the disruption and frequent injections of WAA into the Arctic. We have seen regular ridging of high pressure into the Pole but not sufficiently (yet) to produce much more widespread HP up there."

As I always say, I still have a lot to learn about angular momentum, the GWO (global wind oscillation) and how they influence the MJO, amongst other things. I was delighted when @Snowy Hibbo  responded to my post a few hours later. The MOD thread was extremely busy and you can find his post on page 128, here’s the link:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89088-model-output-discussion-into-2018/?page=128

I copy his post below:

On 1/4/2018 at 16:32, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Given the timing of the 30 to 45 day full cycle, we should reach the important stages of 7, 8 and 1 later this month. Providing the MJO doesn’t die again, then that should substantially assist with establishing HLB patterns. Ideally (for coldies), we would like to see the MJO remain in those key phases for as long as possible at decent amplitude

.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am not too sure, if a Phase 8/1 MJO signal is possible. You might notice that the last two MJO cycles have shown a significant weakening around Phase 8. That is because of the underlying Niña state. The Niña Easterlies will compete with the MJO westerlies. The Niño regions are within Phase 7/8, so that is where the strongest Niña Easterlies are. The MJO signal will be beaten by the Niña Easterlies, which is shown in the data. So a prolonged Phase 7/8/1 event is probably not going to happen IMO anyway.

IMG_3605.thumb.GIF.d12cec2cc0fdfe10dc329627ff7e99cb.GIF

But this has an effect on the AAM. And after some helpful PMs and subsequent reading of studies and other online material, I have come up with this forecast.

IMG_3604.thumb.PNG.b1df5eb39ebc266c65bf22ff97be19af.PNG

Currently we have a -MT and -FT phase. When the MJO (Westerlies) comes into interaction with the Niña Easterlies, it will cause positive frictional torque. +FT moves the GWO to Phase 3/4. The torque propragtes into the mid latitudes, and helps a +MT pattern to develop. This causes a proper GWO Phase 4, at the height of the MJO Phase 6/7. When the MJO signal weakens at the hands of Niña, the +FT will be lost, and the GWO will start to move towards Phases 8/1. Then the MT will go negative a few days after, and then the GWO Phase 1 takes hold.

The MJO is linked to the AAM in this instance. Monthly models such as the EC Monthly and POAMA, show the MJO moving towards Phases 6/7 later this month, so this will be when these events occur. In the meantime, the negative AAM tendency will continue, and maybe the AAM will follow GEFS for once. Just think about that!

Anyway.... the MJO moves through IO, and towards Maritime Continent. You guys in England get single digit temperatures and even freezing temperatures, and we get 41 degrees here in Melbourne. Perhaps"

I was so grateful for this explanation and then @Tamara almost immediately responded and thoroughly endorsed what Snowy Hibbo had said. Her post appears on page 129, here’s the link:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89088-model-output-discussion-into-2018/?page=129

I copy her comments (without the quoted post in it) below:  

"Based on the quite long learning curve I have had, and experience with the GWO thus far, I must say this is one of the best overlay illustrations anyone starting out themselves so soon with the concept of the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamical Model) could produce.

Also, on the basis of my own recent analysis of frictional torque and mountain torque in terms of what it might imply on NWP mid and higher latitude patterns heading through January I would highly recommend the interpretation Snowy has given in terms of the subsequent possible extra tropical reactions that would occur to the on-going MJO phase.

The precisely forecasted track of the GWO is less important here in terms of taking timing and amplitude at 100% face value, though certainly very plausible in general extended outlook terms. What matters is the anticipatory grasp shown of the principles of the AAM budget and how  wind-flow additions and exchanges (that are always in permanent flux) illustrate the process of net easterly winds (c/o la Nina forcing) interplaying with the effects that eastward moving tropical convection superimpose in terms of westerly wind additions

Excellent post in my opinion:)"

I sent a PM to Snowy Hibbo to thank him personally and received a kind reply from him shortly afterwards. The purpose of demonstrating all this is NOT to show a "mutual appreciation society" but to give you an idea of the potential for this much quieter and friendly thread. In fact the MOD thread was so busy last week, that our three posts (referred to above) were buried very quickly. Here, anyone can ask questions. I really hope that those of you who are "lurkers", "readers" or only "very occasional posters" will feel much more confident about contributing with their own posts as well as join in any of the discussions and debates that you chose to. You will always be made to feel very welcome.

 

 

 

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A FEW OF THE UNCERTAINTIES AND ISSUES IN RELATION TO MODEL OUTPUT GOING FORWARD

Although I am a passionate coldie and love the white fluffy stuff like the majority of members on this weather forum, I have been endeavouring to manage my expectations in recent weeks. I have been learning a little more about some of the processes that are largely responsible for what delivers the broader weather patterns to us. This is the background signals and the teleconnections. I still have an awful lot to learn but from what I now understand, I will now attempt to provide my take on what is likely to drive the model output going forward through January and into February. This post will be rather shorter than my normal meanderings as I’m pretty exhausted after launching this specialist thread and it’s my 4th post of the day (although I have been working on the other 3 for several days). I shall also post this one on the model thread shortly but with a slightly different introduction and I will also be advertising this thread there.

Much of this winter so far has been a case of “almost but not quite”. We started with many brief northerlies almost once a week but these were always quickly replaced by less cold conditions. Several of these Arctic outbreaks were slightly more potent and many (but by no means all) parts of the country saw some significant snowfall. Even these cold spells did not last long. A typical La Nina winter is often front-loaded, starting off with frequent HLB and we did indeed, more or less, see some of that. Then this would normally give way to the seasonal strengthening of the PV and the jet stream with flatter patterns and generally much more unsettled and milder conditions but with brief colder interludes also possible through mid-winter. Well, it hasn’t really been a typical La Nina. It hasn’t been the strongest of them but it has often still had enough oomph to make an impact. The more unusual aspect was that it has been largely east Pacific based with the colder currents upwelling there but with less cold currents further west. In fact with the generally well above average SSTs over the tropics and much of the rest of the oceans (especially in the Arctic), the surface currents in the central and west Pacific have really been “less warm” than recently rather than colder than average.

This east position can produce a rather different outcome to that associated with a more normal La Nina. Much would depend on the extent of “angular momentum” (AAM) and how this impacts on the GWO (global wind oscillation) phases. It is this part where I’m still learning some of the basics from several of our teleconnection specialists. I’m confident that they will explain if, where and how I have gone wrong (that’s where the “learning area” in the specialist thread should prove its worth). From what I understand (and this is really in far too simplistic terms), we saw an uptick in AAM in late December – hence the “initial” suggestion (with all the usual caveats) that we would see a build of heights to our north-east. A positive AAM tendency with its tropical convection forcing creates waves or ripples that generate frictional torque (stretching of the atmosphere with any movement one way having to be corrected the other way to cancel out what would otherwise be a vacuum which is unsustainable). These waves then ripple out and start to generate ridges and troughs in the atmosphere. These are most prominent initially in the Pacific. Then this ridging has knock on effects downstream setting up further ridges and troughs. As this movement impacts on mountainous areas like the Rockies it creates further stretching known as “mountain torque”. It is this that can strongly impact on the jet stream, causing it to take on different trajectories and to buckle and meander. With higher AAM, this often eventually favours ridging in the central Atlantic and this can also favour greater HLB.

The GWO is an indicator of how the AAM tendency is likely to impact. I believe that phase 4 is the best position for the most favourable blocked patterns, whereas phase 2 is usually associated with little or no HLB but with rather more MLB possible (last winter was quite an extreme example of this). This can allow very modest and only temporary amplification. Shortly before Christmas, the AAM tendency nose-dived and that was why some of our teleconnection specialists started to say the easterly would barely materialise. The blocking simply would not be sustainable and would, in due course, be pushed away eastwards. The models eventually locked on to this background signal. Then, there were some better signs going forward. It seemed that the AAM would recover and the GWO would enter phase 4 down the line. Hence some rather more optimistic tones from the likes of GP. Unfortunately, the AAM has remained stubbornly low and, I believe, the latest forecasts do not indicate an early change to this. So, the GWO may well remain in phase 2 for a while. That would be back to a rather flatter pattern. It does not mean that all is lost. We would need a “bounce” in AAM tendency but we may have to wait until the east Pacific La Nina weakens a little more.

I haven’t mentioned the MJO but that too is largely influenced by the primary drivers. The MJO can assist and compliment the AAM when it’s in the right phases. There has been some discrepancies over the MJO output in recent weeks. The GFS currently show it at decent amplitude in phase 5. The problem is that a negative AAM is likely to cause the MJO to die a death again as it reaches the key phases of 7, 8 and 1. That would be into early February anyway, so there is still just about time for a sudden bounce in AAM but , as I said this may not be very soon (if at all). Then if we get an SSW (sudden stratospheric warming)  and this does propagate down to the surface, it seems that we still need the AAM to play ball with the tropospheric profile in order to assist with HLB to release the cold from the Arctic (and in the correct alignment to deliver that cold to western Europe and the UK). I have learnt about some of this in very recent weeks and I can assure all of the coldies that I do not wish to deliver any bad news. I may still be a novice regards to the AAM/GWO etc and I’m still learning but I do believe that I’m broadly correct in what I've just said.

Having got all the potentially bad news out of the way, things could actually be a lot worse. This winter has had a habit of managing quite a few colder interludes and several snowfalls. In fact every time the models have switched their mid-term output to a more zonal, unsettled and milder pattern, when we get to zero in on that pattern change it has mostly turned out to be only a brief period of milder and unsettled weather. So this is how we coldies should deal with this. Accept that the specialists will indicate to us as soon as they see any improvements to the longer term picture (and I will post on that very quickly if or when that happens). Meanwhile, most of the rest of us can focus on the short to medium term, which is what the model thread is all about – dissecting the more “reliable” period. There definitely seems to be some rather better news to report here, although there are considerable uncertainties as well. 

Firstly, I want to have a close look at the jet stream. To give an idea of the variety of outcomes, I’ll do what I did once before Christmas, have a look at the latest GEFS panels from the 12z output:

                     T+6                                                T+120                                         T+180                                          T+240                                          T+360

gfsnh-5-6.png?12      gens_panel_nob4.png   gens_panel_eca6.png   gens_panel_vlz9.png   gens_panel_rhe2.png

The panels only show the Atlantic and Europe view, so I start off with the current GFS Northern hemisphere view. We're just on the cold side of the meandering jet with the loop passing north to south. By T+120 (day 5), the panels are pretty consistent in showing a much stronger jet heading more or less from west to east either straight towards the UK or very slightly further south. This would confirm the generally west-north-westerly pattern at that stage with some Polar Maritime air in the mix. By T+180 (day 7/8) most of the ensemble members now show the jet taking on a much more north of west tilt with almost all of the members between west-north-west/east/south-east or a more direct north-west/south-east trajectory. Most of the members show the jet slightly further south but generally still moving through the UK. This confirms that there will be considerably more Polar Maritime air in the mix. By T+240 (day 10), the trajectory has generally changed to more of a north to south trajectory. The jet has weakened to at least some extent but far more so with a few members. It is either passing straight through us or just to the west of us. This will generally put us under an Arctic air stream and hence the northerly. We can have a sneak preview of the unreliable period of T+360 (day 15). All of a sudden we see a huge range of outcomes which really proves that we should not look beyond day 10. The majority still show some sort of rather cold to colder pattern but some have us on the warm side of the jet and there is a wide range of strengths too. Remember, by this time we would need some changes feeding through from the AAM/GWO to have a chance of any more sustainable cold (but this would be too early any). So the best we can probably hope for are a few days of cold northerlies with some good snow chances for at least some of us. Yet again, we would be making the best out of what could have been a pretty dire pattern for coldies - in fact little evidence of anything mild around the corner (other than perhaps for one or two days prior to the northerly). 

If you wish to view any of the panel charts more closely, you can do this by using the links below and then just click on any of the charts to enlarge them: 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=120

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=180

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=240

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=360

I've had a good look at the jet stream profiles on the other models and there is reasonable agreement right up to day 10. Several models show the jet pushing slightly further south.

I just want to have a very quick look at northern hemisphere temperatures. I do not have time for one of my Arctic or EurAsia temperature and snow cover analyses but I will update these next week ahead of the anticipated northerly snap. I will not do a cross-model analyses at this stage either. In my last report (on page 112 of the Dec 30th model thread) I pointed out that the current severe cold in North America would ease considerably going into next week with much of the cold at last transferring back to the Asian continent with some getting closer to Europe.

So firstly several 850 charts again from the 12z output:

850 Temperatures:                      GFS T+6                                 GFS T+120                             GFS T+240

                                           gfsnh-1-6.png?12?12       gfsnh-1-120.png?12?12      gfsnh-1-240.png?12?12

The GFS does continue to transfer the cold across to Asia and Russia. By day 10 there are some much lower 850s in northern Asia, Russia and Siberia and rather lower temps in Scandinavia too. The 850s over us do look rather marginal suggesting it might be mostly snow over higher ground during the northerly unless we manage another slider or transitional snow when less cold air moves in later on.

 850 Temperatures:                     ECM T+0                                 ECM T+120                            ECM T+240

                                           ECH0-0.GIF      ECH0-120.GIF       ECH0-240.GIF

The ECM charts are not programmed to register below -28c (while GFS go down as far as -40c). If anything, ECM transfer even more of the cold to Asia but also rather more into Europe by day 10 and also slightly less marginal 850s across the UK. I'm certain that many posters will follow these developments very closely as the northerly gets into the day 5 range.  

2M Surface Temperatures:         GFS T+6                                  GFS T+120                            GFS T+240

                                            gfsnh-9-6.png?12       gfsnh-9-120.png?12      gfsnh-9-240.png?12 

Much the same transfer applies to the surface cold. The GFS shows that North America takes a little longer to give up some of the deeper cold but by day 10 the USA is considerably warmer. Meanwhile Northern Asia, Siberia and much of Russia have developed their deepest cold of the winter with an extensive area of sub -28s to sub -40s. By day 10, Scandinavia is very cold and most of Europe is close to freezing and the UK is under 0c to +4c temperatures. Remember, these charts are for 1300, so very close to the maximums (everything else remaining equal). We must give credit where it is due. I pointed out a week ago that the GFS was showing this cold transition in its FI charts and now it has moved into the more reliable period. So, they seem to have at least nailed this change and quite well ahead of the other models, which are now all following suit. Let's just confirm that with several other models' charts.

2M Surface Temperatures:    GEFS mean T+240                        GEM T+240                         NAVGEM T+180

                                             gensnh-21-4-240.png      gemnh-9-240.png     navgemnh-8-180.png 

I've only used the Meteoceil Northern Hemisphere charts and several models, like the ECM, are not shown there. The GEFS mean is interesting at T+240 as it shows similar deep cold to the GFS operational run. This is the average of all 20 ensemble members, plus the control and op runs. Very few members show less extensive cold on the Asian continent but there are some that show more of the cold extending into Europe. GEM is similar and NAVGEM (only out to T+180) is well on the way.

So, I'm delighted to close with some better news. If only someone can give that AAM a big nudge to get it spiking upwards that we might just manage some synoptic patterns to help deliver that cold to our shores. If anyone wants to discuss any aspect of this post, particularly the first part, then you'll be very welcome on the new teleconnections thread.

 

                                             

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First of all can I thank you for all the effort you put in to constructing your posts BB62_63 they are informative and easy to follow, even the less knowledgeable such as myself can and do learn from them, a view echoed by many on these forums. 

From reading the mod thread this year it would seem that subject of teleconnections has taken quite a lot of stick this winter possibly more than previous years I hope this thread will offer some of those with more of an understanding of such matters a chance to explain the science behind them in a much less hectic place than a mod thread in full cold hunting mode! I look forward to further posts from yourself and others thanks again.

BTW "silent readers" so much nicer than "lurker" :-)

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17 minutes ago, Eastwoods said:

First of all can I thank you for all the effort you put in to constructing your posts BB62_63 they are informative and easy to follow, even the less knowledgeable such as myself can and do learn from them, a view echoed by many on these forums. 

 

Thank you for your kind comments and welcome to this thread.This is exactly what we would like to encourage. Please feel free to post whenever you like and ask any questions. 

Edited by Bring Back1962-63
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Good start @Bring Back1962-63

IMG_3661.thumb.GIF.bbdc20b9aff215623153333ee900a9d6.GIF

The GWO is currently deep in Phase 1, and has been lowering in AAM for about a week or so now. This has gone way out of cycle, perhaps for several reasons. Firstly the MJO has been stalling in Phase 2 for a while, allowing FT to go quite deep into the negatives. 

IMG_3660.thumb.GIF.2c6f2d5a61b61d7f1fdb9fbfbc4f8875.GIF 

The FT is continuing to go further negative. However eventually when the MJO finally gets to Phase 4/5/6, it will start to interact with the Niña base state in the Pacific, and start to create a +FT in the tropics. This will stop the current decline in the AAM, and allow normal progression through the GWO Phases, up to the more favourable Phase 4 later in the month, or alternatively early next month,

IMG_3659.thumb.GIF.b9036ebfdf675d74ee4cec834877012b.GIF

On the Mountain Torque side, we see a fairly neutral worldwide Mountain Torque, largely due to the balance of a +Rockies MT (that recently declined) and a -EAMT. However an increase in Mountain Torque over the Andes, has increased the Worldwide MT a fair bit, and could have some effect on the AAM.

There's a bit of uncertainty with the MJO progressing through to Phase 7/8.... GFS shows a nice progression, EC doesn't,

This from POAMA, shows pretty much the track we want the MJO to progress through. In an ideal world, you might have the MJO a little stronger through Phase 4&5, for the AAM progression,  but it should be okay. It shows us moving into the ideal phases in Mid February (thanks again to the current stalling). I can't guarantee against more slowing down of the MJO, with more stalling, so we will need to watch that progress obviously.

IMG_3663.thumb.PNG.5fead63ad9ffaf349dae09e5262b24b5.PNG

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Thank you, @Snowy Hibbo (Zac) and @Catacol (Alistair) for you excellent initial posts and welcome to our new thread. I know that I shall learn a lot from both of you and I hope that many others will too. Much too late for any questions tonight but I'll have several in the morning. The news does seem more encouraging for later this month and into February.

Thank you for your comment @Nick L nice to have someone from the Forum Team on here already. I hope that you might contribute from time to time. I note your comment regarding font size (put much more respectfully than John H managed earlier (must have been a bad day for him!). I will try to remember to reduce my font size just before I press submit. I wear reading glasses and use varifocals for computer work. Just had my last eye test and no deterioration but coming up to 65 I need to have regular checks. It is difficult for me to read small print but I agree, a compromise might be a good solution. My 3rd post where I quoted 3 parts of earlier posts (from 3 members) really caused me a problem. Each original post was not only in a different font size but in different font faces (or styles). There is no feature on NetWeather to change the style. So, I thought that I'd overcome this problem by copying everything to a word document on my computer and change it all to "Times Roman" my preferred style. When I copied it back to the pre-submit mode (as well as the editor facility) it changed back to its original 3 style format! It drove me half crazy trying to fiddle around with it especially after writing 4 long posts today. I have very high standards of English and presentation and this compromises those standards. Is there any way around this problem or is it possible that NetWeather can add the font style option above all pre-submit posts? May be this is one for Paul but if I can leave it with you, I'd appreciate someone answering this. All the best, David.   

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All I can say is thank you!!

I have been a lurker for for many years in the mod thread but only once posted.

I am inspired to be involved in this thread of discovery. 

 

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Thank you Knocker and welcome to this thread. The link that you provide is just what we are looking for. I have just looked at the video and it is fascinating. I hope that it'll promote some comments and discussion from our technical contributors - way beyond my pay grade!. I note that this was published in 2014 and I'm not sure if there have been further papers on this specific aspect of the MJO. Last year, I exchanged emails with Kyle McRitchie and you probably know that he has focused on Indian Ocean and tropical forcing and devised his own MJO "ENSO adjusted" plots with mixed results (I think). Once this thread has had a chance to get up and running properly (I hope) I will invite Kyle to make the occasional "guest contribution". The same will go for other experts in relevant areas.

I want to build a library into this thread and I've been discussing this with Paul. He has been working on a way of doing this which is likely to be ready next week - this is so that it can be continuously worked on and updated without the usual forum editing constraints. I will create a good cross indexing system so that any papers can easily be located under one or several headings. So, your link will be one of the first entries into our library

Edited by Bring Back1962-63

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A big thank you for starting this discovery thread, I've already learnt lots! Been a member here for a long time but rarely post for various reasons 

I'm hoping to be a regular contributor here though as the whole background signals thing has baffled me for a long time despite a 50+ year interest in the weather and in particular cold, winter weather!

Will continue to read through and ask questions when I have some. I was going to ask about the MJO but see Knocker has posted something about that so will have a look.

Edited by wiltshire weather
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44 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Thank you Knocker and welcome to this thread. The link that you provide is just what we are looking for. I have just looked at the video and it is fascinating. I hope that it'll promote some comments and discussion from our technical contributors - way beyond my pay grade!. I note that this was published in 2014 and I'm not sure if there have been further papers on this specific aspect of the MJO. Last year,

Well I will just add that MV tweeted a link to this very recently so I would imagine still very relevant.

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12 hours ago, Catacol said:

Good start David. Not quite sure how to angle my posts in this thread - reflective of current output or more broadly educational? I'm going to go for a blend of both and in no particular order pick themes as I go. This one first - basic GWO.

I like this slide I found a while back. It helps me visualise what is going on in terms of global winds

image.thumb.png.32db63573e00c6cb9b15b0dc2670ee6f.png

In essence the GWO is an index of global wind and also the momentum of the atmosphere in relation to the earth. In simple terms if the atmosphere is moving faster than the earth is spinning then we have positive atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). If the atmosphere starts to drag and move slower than the earth is spinning then atmospheric angular momentum is negative. The global measurement of this momentum is sometimes referred to as GLAAM.

The key is that the atmosphere and earth do not match speeds in all regions of the earth at the same time. There is regional variation particularly around mountain ranges, and the impact of the interaction between air and earth is affected by these "torques." More about those in another post.

Anyway bigger brains than mine (by a long way) explain that relative speed between air and earth is constantly trying to reach a state of equilibrium and that the overall momentum budget is always therefore trending towards 0. Therefore if the atmosphere starts to spin hard and fast at the equator, perhaps inspired by westerly wind bursts via progression of the MJO (more of that in another post again) then the atmosphere at other latitudes will be "dragged" slower to compensate. See net momentum flux in the diagramme. I am not a physicist: I cannot explain it better than that... but know that there is therefore an inverse relationship between momentum at higher latitudes and the equator. Therefore if we get a spike in AAM at the equator we get a reduction at northern latitudes. The jet weakens... buckles... and is more conducive to blocking patterns. Conversely low AAM at the equator, particularly in the pacific, and momentum spikes in higher latitudes blowing away chances of high lat blocks.

Final point of note - the diagroam shows that dominant winds at the equator are easterly. These easterly winds from 0 - 30N in latitude serve to prop up sub tropical ridges that in turn help feed the westerly winds in northern latitudes such as ours. Therefore when the trades are blowing hard, the sub tropical ridges are enhanced (eg Azores High) and we get a westerly dominated pattern. When the trades weaken the sub tropical ridges weaken, and lower momentum at higher latitudes helps encourage blocking in winter.

A basic concept to grasp as a first step. I'll build more on top another time - but for now it might help explain why we are looking forward to a predicted rise in AAM 0-30N in the nearish future as the atmosphere responds to the current low global value of AAM in an attempt to bring relative momentum back towards 0... and that this process may be enhanced by an active MJO phase causing Momentum to spike above 0. This would be the first stage in encouraging a return of the scandy high in late January.

Late night post - apologies for anything that is unclear....

As a complete beginner to the subject (Teleconnections) I have to say reading the post so far on here have ignited a flame of interest! As a regular lurker and very occasional poster in the MOD thread I have seen many of the teleconnection experts posts and pretty much whizzed past without so much as a glance. Mainly due to feeling out of my depth with regards to understanding, so first of all a big thank you for starting this thread @Bring Back1962-63

The above post had me thinking that as the earths rotational speed must be influenced by energy from a certain source. Seeing as these changes in rotational motion effect the atmospheric conditions, who are the main players in this? From what I have read since it appears that the ocean tides are one of these "main players".  The tides  affect the earths rotation in two sharply contrasting ways. One way, caused by tidal friction, which produces an extremely slow secular change in rotation. The other way, caused by the continual movements of the tides about the planet, produces very small but very rapid changes in rotation. Seeing as the tides are influenced by the lunar phases I was wondering why I haven't seen any charts / graphs relating to this and the effect it is potentially going to have on GLAAM further down the line? (Further down the line as I wouldn't imagine each small change in lunar activity would instantly change any of the teleconnections used on Earth) Also I think I am correct in saying that the lunar cycles are a constant and therefore should be a good overall teleconnection starting point?

I may well be barking up the wrong tree here as I am experiencing information overload and my head is about to explode :yahoo:

 

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FONT SIZE ISSUES - A GOOD OLD BRITISH COMPROMISE

I have noted the various mixed views and comments regarding font size.This is from both the MOD thread as well as this new "Learning All About Teleconnections" thread that I launched last night. I will try to remember to reduce my font size just before I press the "submit" button. I had no idea that I would cause such a "mixed" reaction and I apologise to everyone (including the moderators) for seemingly disrupting the MOD thread at a busy time which would never be my intention. I pride myself on the use of good English and presentation skills and this matter really concerns me. There is something of a dilemma which I want to post here as it's extremely relevant to many who post anywhere on this forum. I am deliberately ensuring that @Paul will read this and I will also be sending him a PM about a particular aspect of it shortly. I will also see if he or someone in his team can edit my last 5 posts (one on page 27 of the MOD thread and 4 on the new thread) to reduce the font size to what I outline below. In particular, I really struggled with the text in my 3rd post on this thread. The one where I quote (or copy) part of Snowy Hibbo's and Tamara's posts. Each original post was not only in a different font size but in different font faces (or styles). There seems no feature on NetWeather to change the style. So, I thought that I'd overcome this problem by copying everything to a word document on my computer and change it all to "Times Roman" my preferred style. When I copied it back to the pre-submit mode (as well as the editor facility) to my horror it changed back to its original 3 style format! It drove me half crazy trying to fiddle around with it especially after writing 4 long posts yesterday. I think that 3rd post looks hideous and it's intended as a "demonstration" post for this thread, I'm not happy with it!.

Part of the problem is that some of the posters (like me) work from our trusted desktop PCs and some use their laptops. I now understand that many use mobile apps, perhaps even a majority these days and the viewing is very different. It is not just a generation thing as my brother dispensed with his desktop several years ago and, unlike me, he is far more in touch with the outside world! I asked him this morning to give me a demonstration of the problem. I was quite shocked just how little of the text shows up even when he did that finger movement thing to varying the size on the tiny screen. I can also see how difficult it is to use the mobile app for posting oneself and I can see why we have an abundance of short posts and some "part view" charts and with a vertical view when they appear on here. This is one side of the coin but please read on.

Although my general eye sight is very good, I have been wearing reading glasses for the last 15 years or so and (I just had my last annual eye test and there was no deterioration - but coming up to age 65, I need to have regular checks). It is difficult for me to read very small print and anything from font size 12 and below is a real struggle. I use "varifocals" for when I'm working on my desktop computer. I write everything in a much larger font size so that I can edit it easily and correct typos and spelling errors etc. With the new 15 minute editing time restriction, I find it hard to check everything (including all the links and charts) on my long posts. I have partially overcome this by proof reading everything several times prior to submitting the post. I will try to ensure from now on that my final action prior to submitting any type of post is to reduce the font size from the 16 to 18 (or even 20 for titles) that I have been using down to size 14 for standard text and only 16 for titles and headings - just like on this post, This is effectively meeting some of you halfway and I sincerely hope that this really helps. Sometimes in this world of increasingly polarised views, a good old British compromise might still be the best way forward and I hope that most of you agree.

Finally, I just remembered to reduce this from font size 18 to size 14!

David

Edited by Bring Back1962-63
Correct typos
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So I hope as a first question this doesn't sound irrelevant to where you want the thread to be heading, what part if any does the strength of the earth's magnetic field play within weather patterns? I am assuming that there must be some sort of influence on the stratosphere and ionosphere with charged particles drawn in towards the poles, but are there any more direct effects lower down in the atmosphere? If so, does then the position of the poles at any given time offer any tangible variance?

Thanks in advance

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Eastwoods said:

So I hope as a first question this doesn't sound irrelevant to where you want the thread to be heading, what part if any does the strength of the earth's magnetic field play within weather patterns? I am assuming that there must be some sort of influence on the stratosphere and ionosphere with charged particles drawn in towards the poles, but are there any more direct effects lower down in the atmosphere? If so, does then the position of the poles at any given time offer any tangible variance?

Thanks in advance

 

 

A bit over my head (which has already exploded trying to pick all this stuff up 😁) but I found this on tinternet for you https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/29/magnetism-and-weather-interconnections-2/

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12 hours ago, Eastwoods said:

So I hope as a first question this doesn't sound irrelevant to where you want the thread to be heading, what part if any does the strength of the earth's magnetic field play within weather patterns? I am assuming that there must be some sort of influence on the stratosphere and ionosphere with charged particles drawn in towards the poles, but are there any more direct effects lower down in the atmosphere? If so, does then the position of the poles at any given time offer any tangible variance?

Thanks in advance

 

 

The Swarm satellites have been tracking the changing magnetism on earth for a few years now; this article shows the video of it.

 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36266258

Maybe some can see a link in weather patterns? There's even been suggestion that the strat PV is following magnetic north in its movement across the Arctic.

https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/historical_declination/

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Many thanks ghoneym and gael_force for the response and links there is some interesting information there. It would seem that this type of research is still in its infancy and as yet connections to the general weather patterns are suggestive rather than conclusive. It would also seem that the effects of the magnetic field are more influential in the upper layers of the atmosphere and the interaction with greenhouse gasses such as CO2, how that manifests itself is perhaps a different debate altogether. Some research has been done by the British Antarctic Survey in 2014 with results published in the Space Weather and Space Climate Journal. Sorry can't seem to create a link but www.swsc-journal.org and search earlier editions. 

I'm of the opinion that time will reveal more about these connections and interactions but for sure more research is required as I don't believe that anyone has even scratched the surface of this vast subject. 

Many thanks

Eastwoods

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13 hours ago, ghoneym said:

A bit over my head (which has already exploded trying to pick all this stuff up 😁) but I found this on tinternet for you https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/29/magnetism-and-weather-interconnections-2/

It is worth remembering if one is going to quote web sites like WUWT and people like Tim Ball that the foremost is the most well known human induced global warming denier site and publishes great deal of scientifically unsupported rubbish as also does Ball, Such as this on another denier site.

Quote

Dr. Tim Ball, a prominent climatologist and retired professor from the University of Winnipeg in Canada. He began by arguing that the man-made global-warming hysteria was actually not a hoax, technically speaking, because a hoax typically involves some humor. “This is a deception on a global scale,” Dr. Ball said, lambasting the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for what he blasted as fraud. “It is the greatest deception in history, and it affects every single thing.”

http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/12/13/climatologist-dr-tim-ball-global-warming-is-the-greatest-deception-in-history/

The above site is run by another poisonous individual called Marc Morano another anti science individual who supports Ball.

Edited by knocker
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IMG_3665.thumb.GIF.b1c8f5485d703253de27e5f2b651f5c6.GIF

We are moving into Phase 2, so less of a decrease in Atmospheric Angular Momentum.

IMG_3668.thumb.PNG.e2513e62197ede7e03bc76f792e7cac0.PNG

GFS shows a stagnation in the Global Wind Oscillation, in a deep -AAM state. This is pretty typical of GFS, which shows a -AAM bias. You can sometimes note the bias on the GFS jetstream maps, with weird jet splits and movement. IMO I think the GWO is going to start heading towards Phase 3/4, in a +AAM trend, due to an increase in FT, which will be occurred by the movement of the MJO signal into the Pacific. MT is already trending positively, so that should be helping a increase in AAM in the short-medium term.

 

The DJF GWO correlations are here for everyone's information and use.

Link for more months and seasons: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/comp.html

IMG_3625.thumb.PNG.231d194c216ce55665a1a5202440e3ec.PNG

 

 

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GENERAL UPDATE:

Welcome to everyone to whom I haven't done so already. I am delighted to see that this thread is starting to gather pace. The examples of the exchanges above on "magnetism" are precisely what part of this thread is all about. Everyone is encouraged to provide links to papers and to try to help out with anyone else's queries, Then if one (or more) of these papers is known by any of us (like Knocker posted above) to be controversial or out of sync with current thinking, then it's important to give a steer on this. This does NOT mean that anyone should stop posting any links or papers etc as this is the thread to dissect them. I feel that many of us will be interested in this part of the subject to see where it fits in with the other teleconnections. I have a friend who I know has taken an interest in the earth's magnetism and solar influences and how they impact on both volcanism and the atmosphere. I haven't been in touch with her for a while but I've just sent her an email to invite her to join the NetWeather Forum and to contribute on this thread. So I hope that she responds and joins - I'll let you know whether this happens.

I briefly looked for a few papers on this subject last night. I did a Google search and would you believe that the first item listed (last night anyway) was this thread!  Probably because I mentioned magnetism amongst the teleconnections in my introductory post. This was the link then:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=x09ZWte4AZCykwXt6IXACw&q=teleconnection+earth's+magnetism&oq=teleconnection+earth's+magnetism&gs_l=psy-ab.12...15810.24881.0.27188.19.19.0.0.0.0.81.1384.19.19.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..0.0.0....0.tNvN8rObQv8

My first reaction was, gosh the power of the internet - what have I started here?. On reflection, I hope that with this "wider exposure" we might attract a few more people with these shared interests, including a few specialists, from outside the NetWeather Forum and worldwide. Anyway, still very early days but with all your help we have a wonderful opportunity to make this thread into something very special and very useful. I know that there will be a few more excellent posts coming from some of those who will be amongst "our regulars" and these will be a mix with a focus on either "technical" or "learning". 

I should just mention (if I haven't already), that I run a full time online business (coin dealing) from home and that occupies me for lengthy periods. In fact, my busy periods are from Saturdays to Wednesdays and " my weekend" consists of Thursdays and Fridays! That is when I prepare my longer posts and it will also be the time when I can get much more involved on here. During the rest of the week, I will look in as often as I can.

I had to deal with an unsavoury post this morning which I (and I believe) several of you also reported. The mods removed it very quickly. I will not mention any names publicly but there is a minority of forum members who simply dismiss almost anything to do with teleconnection science. If they can argue their case respectfully with evidence then fine, we can debate it here in a friendly way. This is not the MOD thread and one of the reasons why I created this thread was.to get away from that group of people and attract members with at least "an open mind". Then we can all learn much more and some of the rather more "sceptical" amongst us might develop a rather different view in the course time.  

If anyone has any particular issues, please feel free to PM me and I will endeavour to respond as soon as I can - I'm usually not far away from my computer!

Finally, thank you to those who have got involved so far and please keep looking in, contributing and spreading the word.

 

Edited by Bring Back1962-63
Correct typos
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I agree with what you say Knocker and certainly accept there are plenty of people out there peddling there own agendas, perhaps dangerously so within the climate change debate. Not sure this thread is for that kind of debate, though I am not sure it's possible to separate the subjects completely after all this is about teleconnections  science and ultimately this will overlap onto the climate change/global warming debate at some point . As you say though caution should be applied to anybody stating facts that have no scientific research to underpin them. To achieve answers one has to ask the questions first. I look forward to yours and other well respected members input as the thread continues. I also hope some of the other less confident members feel encouraged to join in with equally valid and welcome input.

Many thanks

Eastwoods

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