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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmm is that low even further south at 48 hours on the ecm!!and also just bout at 995 mb!

Its not always just the depth of the system though, I don't think the 1987 one was 955 or anything like some of those large storms, its the pressure gradient (tightness of isobars) and also how much it deepens by and how quick, the further North of the Jet, the stronger the temp gradient which fuels them (I think).

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Ecm takes the low through Lancs (lol) and follows a path east as it exits the uk

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/sea-level-pressure/20180118-0300z.html 

Edited by karlos1983
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

slightly more disruption on the front at day 5. slightly more blocking to the northeast. result at day 6 ????

EDIT: not far from gfs solution is the answer (with some snowfall on the front)

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

All change now @144 with a possibly snowy slider

38415DF9-8E1D-43CF-8817-E5A4F683DAA0.thumb.png.2fd378dc5fd89e6ba1a50eeb6cfc8a11.png

.......already slid into Ireland: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20180121-0300z.html

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The bank of cold air to the east is still refusing to budge at T168hrs.

The ECM has more dig sw of the upstream trough . With a bit of luck we could be seeing the pattern edged further west with more trough disruption .

After a weekend of downgrades this upgrade has come out the blue!!didnt expect it to happen so quiick!!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

After a weekend of downgrades this upgrade has come out the blue!!didnt expect it to happen so quiick!!

We still need more trough disruption upstream. Tonight’s trends are better but we do need a correction west with more energy heading se.

The type of set up could throw up some changes especially to the east and ne.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We still need more trough disruption upstream. Tonight’s trends are better but we do need a correction west with more energy heading se.

The type of set up could throw up some changes especially to the east and ne.

 

Hi Nick

Any concerns that the remnants of the troughs over Scandinavia will prevent the high to the north east effecting us sufficiently enough to send the Atlantic south east and provide sufficient cold from the east? Looks that way to me?

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes definitely upgrades coming, don’t discount my ‘big solar wind hitting Earth affecting the jetstream’ musings.

I think I missed the detail on this - are you proposing a link between (coronal hole stream) solar wind and terrestrial jet-stream behaviour? If so, could you please post a link to scientific publications that outline this - and ideally research (and especially models) that predict future solar wind streams that are Earth-directed?

I find this area really interesting but haven't come across any papers that set this out in a way that is meaningful for weather forecasting. MODS: I think this IS thread-related: it would be great if a link were established and models available that could inform forecasting using the usual models discussed here. (Is it possible that Met O and others have models that incorporate solar activity, but which are not available to the public?)

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
On 1/14/2018 at 08:39, Captain Shortwave said:

Well at times it is best to compare like for like to see where the models have changed over the past 24 hours. The UKMO looks a good one to look at here;

UN120-21.GIF?14-06   UN144-21.GIF?13-00

Most of the differences appear to be over Canada with a much flatter pattern compared to the runs yesterday with heights also lower in general with the Canadian lobe still present as opposed to the weaker trough shown yesterday. End of the line the result is a stronger jet exiting N.America and hence the trend to move average conditions with winds generally from the west as opposed to potentially getting a northerly next weekend.

We do have higher heights over the pole which would cast doubt on whether we are seeing the right direction going forward as these tend to complicate matters, the bottom line is that things could change dramatically again (for better or for worse). Overall though the output this morning is a sharp turn away from previous days with the low Thursday night being the turd dumped on the stale cake this morning.

Spot on yesterday,don't thing you can trust the output past 120 to 144 look how that shortwave at 48 hrs has been modeled last 4 runs and the track is still not nailed yet.so I think it just goes to show us this winter is very different and you never know what happens past 144:)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Hi Nick

Any concerns that the remnants of the troughs over Scandinavia will prevent the high to the north east effecting us sufficiently enough to send the Atlantic south east and provide sufficient cold from the east? Looks that way to me?

I wouldn’t look too far ahead. It’s quite an unusual set up developing towards the east and ne.

Not sure the models know what to do yet between T120 and T168hrs in that area.

To be honest I’m still obsessing over the upstream pattern upto T96 hrs. The models have been very twitchy there with how they phase that shortwave energy.

You can see by the UKMO switch from its 00hrs output . It was wrong within T72 hrs.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ecm 12z...well, make no mistake about it this week looks generally cold with some frosty / icy nights and  snow / wintry showers with hail and thunder during the next few days, then a vigorous feature zipping in from the atlantic with a spell of very strong winds and heavy rain with disruptive snow to the north of the low..  followed by another rush of cold air from the northwest with a risk of snow showers returning..a lot more going on than last week!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄...I would love to see the cold air lasting into next week..perhaps on future output it will!!:):cold: 

24_mslp850uk.png

24_thickuk.png

24_mslp500.png

48_thickuk.png

72_thickuk.png

72_mslp500.png

96_thickuk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended looks quite wet for Wales & the south-west drier elsewhere

 

ukm2.2018012212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker2.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon-

As noted / forecast yesterday models starting to rapidly change in the 168-192 arena...

Can the ECM add a bit more cement on the concrete....

Noooo please don’t forecast any cold outcomes Steve you will Jinx it!!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks quite wet for Wales & the south-west drier elsewhere

 

ukm2.2018012212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker2.png

Possibly the best chart of the winter thus far. That low should sink down towards the med and an epic easterly sets in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looking at the models, too much volatility to call even 72 hrs ahead, nevermind 120-144hrs, sudden short term developments that will catch the models unaware will continue to force them to make large corrections - so take them with wide margin for error. I'm seeing signs of trough disruption again by the end of the week, so a possible slider/snow event for northern parts again as the fronts come unstuck against a cold wedge of air. 

I'm not commenting on next week.

In the short-term the low pressure system forecast to cross the UK somewhere in 48 hrs - still room for further changes with this, and I suspect a correction southwards a little, not much, it looks a shallower feature as well, so hopefully we will be spared troublesome winds.

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