Model output discussion - mid-winter

[bluearmy]

The icon goes on to dive the trough somewhat early next week - wouldn’t take too much adjustment on that evolution to look like 10/11 December ........

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

GEM further south too!

back up the ladder again!!

[tcc]

No doubt it's all to do with whether that wave phases with the jet or not - miss it and you can see what happens on GFS. Engage it and you can see what happens on the ICON.

Won't be confirmed either way for another 24 hrs I should imagine.

[bluearmy]

Oh, and ukmo more amplified at day 4 which probably means ec right to keep the ridging over past 3 runs 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The joy of model watching is at its best right now. Just when you thought it was going to be a substantial storm, we are now trending towards a very short sharp potent feature corrected even further south. Given the speed of the jet aloft, and its rapid development, it's a forecasters nightmare, as the range as we have clearly seen in the last 12 hours goes from possible red warnings for structural damage, to maybe not even seeing barely a rustle and the whole thing ending up in N France, with snow even possibly making the headlines instead. This will also have massive implications in the long run, as this low was set to become a part of the main vortex to our north, now not looking likely the case.. 

In the meantime, fasten your seat belts for one of the best northwesterlies in recent history possibly about to unfold! 

[karlos1983]

UKMO +120

Not sure what to make of that, but looks better than it's 00z to the NW

[weirpig]

To be fair  How the GFS handles the low is not to dissimilar to the mighty Navgem 6z      Just saying.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO +120

Not sure what to make of that, but looks better than it's 00z to the NW

Yes, quite a backtrack from the UKMO. IT was so flat earlier and now it tries to build a ridge.

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

To be fair  How the GFS handles the low is not to dissimilar to the mighty Navgem 6z      Just saying.

For Referencing the NAVGEM, you should be expecting the ban hammer to strike!

 

 

[shaky]

Hmmmm upgrades this afternoon all around!!better between 96 and 120 hours aswell!

[Nick F]

GFS trending south with each subsequent run today so far, 06z Thurs chart started off on 00z centred 970mb somewhere near Glasgow, then 06z centered 976mb over Northumberland, now 12z centred  986mb over E Yorks. As many know, the shallower a low is modelled, the more southerly in track it’ll take.

00z

06z

12z

Edited January 15, 2018 by Nick F

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Yes, quite a backtrack from the UKMO. IT was so flat earlier and now it tries to build a ridge.

Was thinking the same thing. I reckon we have another flip in output in the offing. 

[nick sussex]

What drama!

From the let down after the models went into flattening on steroids now finding some more amplification upstream.

The UKMO moves towards the more amplified solution which is a relief after its morning horror show.

 

[Summer Sun]

24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Jesus where has the storm gone on gfs 12z!!much further south and not as deep!!

Pretty windy though for a time

[Daniel*]

That’s quite a dramatic change with a prominent Italy low I struggle to see where we’d go forward from this.

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GFS trending south with each subsequent run today so far, 00z Thurs started off on 00z centred 970mb somewhere near Glasgow, then 06z centered 976mb over Northumberland, now 12z centred  986mb over E Yorks. As many know, the shallower a low is modelled, the more southerly in track it’ll take.

00z

06z

12z

Bloody hell when you compare them like that mate thats a serious move south and there is no 2 ways about it!!if it continues it will end up in the channel or france!

[karlos1983]

What a day, this is exactly why I'm hooked on this weather malarky! 

ECM will be very interesting viewing!! 

Won't post the charts I was about to, as Nick F has shown that quite nicely already!

[beng]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The icon goes on to dive the trough somewhat early next week - wouldn’t take too much adjustment on that evolution to look like 10/11 December ........

oh great 

 

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO +120

Not sure what to make of that, but looks better than it's 00z to the NW

 

With a few tweaks you could develop an Easterly from that, bring on the next weather model wild goose chase...

Edited January 15, 2018 by beng

[nick sussex]

Looking at the slackness of the pattern to the east/ne and surface cold building there will we see a small Scandi high form?

This has happened in the past, anyway at least we're moving in a better direction after what recently seemed an inevitable slide into crapsville!

[John Michael How]

3 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Big time it can send the models into a spin.

Had a phone call last night from the mother in law, who spends 7 odd months a year in Mauritius (a win win situation).

Port Louis is on full alert for a direct hit. They are hoping it will be a near miss but it could be a big one should it hit (it is relatively rare for Mauritius).

When I checked yesterday it was strengthening over the very warm IO waters.

I'm half Mauritian myself and am going  back to visit family there for Easter. I hope the cyclones not too bad for your mother in law and my family there too! They do very occasionally get some big cyclones there but have not had any damaging ones for years. My dad actually lost his house to a cyclone in the 60s! I had a feeling they may have been due a bigun after the strong Atlantic hurricane season. I just hope there's none when I'm there!  As they can have them right up to the first half of May.

 

I don't know if you'e aware but there is a good site the Mauritius Meteorological service it has cyclone bulletins and the cyclone tracker etc worth a look! I wonder how the cyclone activity affects our weather in this part of the world?

[Singularity]

Still the adjustments continue. Encouraging to see UKMO producing more of a ridge again too. 

The cold air to the NE in light winds is useful for forcing some trough disruption, acting like a roadblock.

[Mark Neal.]

Hang on, GFS 12Z even shows precip moving in from NW/W Sunday early hours now turning to snow as it hits inland, looks to slide SE... Few tweaks and look what happens! 

  

 

[jethro]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Bloody hell when you compare them like that mate thats a serious move south and there is no 2 ways about it!!if it continues it will end up in the channel or france!

It's quite welcome to carry on shifting south, if it turns into a channel low with the west country on the northern flank getting buried in snow, I don't think anyone down here will complain.

[Singularity]

What I would give to see a sudden inflation of HP to the NE as was performed by the CFSv2 00z following a similar spell of trough disruption and sliding across.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes definitely upgrades coming, don’t discount my ‘big solar wind hitting Earth affecting the jetstream’ musings.  What we are seeing is pleasing, probably more tweaking yet.

I mentioned re watching models for momentum or glitch.....I’m thinking that it was glitch re horror show....  

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST