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Paul

Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Quiet a bit further south aswell!!00z had centre western scotland!!06 has it nort east england!!

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180115;tim

Even with the shift South, still only Scotland with the snowfall on Thursday morning the greedy buggers!

6z is prolonging the colder spell somewhat with uppers much lower on Sunday in comparison the the 0z bar the far SW, that's good news for those who want to go and walk in the snowcapped hills at the weekend.

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180115;tim

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. The latest fax chart now has the Newfound Low in its range. Just as an observation, I wonder if the forecasters view is for the track to be further south than the UKMO model currently suggests. The raw data may show a variant to this prognosis. So forecast could be subject to change for Wed/ Thurs potent development (ie ) snowfall /winds/rain zone.

C

fax48s.gif

Latest GFS has the low further south on 06h run. Maybe start of a correction on the main models. Think UKMO raw output charts may be showing this, hence some uncertainty in the media forecasts. Anyway looking at the GFS 850mb temp chart , still a cold block over and to the NE of the British Isles and showing some resilience again in these charts. Interesting week ahead ! Wonder if we are going see another flip . Report back later .

 C

GFSOPEU06_138_2.png

Edited by carinthian

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Do I spot trough disruption at 132:80:

DA75967C-D3B4-4F81-B52E-856BD6C01B01.thumb.png.b1f2cbfec94e088bd5fd5c312733c0b6.png

 

Looking at the GFS precip type, theres plenty of Snow for southern Ireland and even a dusting for Cornwall but nowt further North east and East of that for now.

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More than a slight southern correction slightly stronger winds clears away more quickly however. 

06z D256D1A5-8DE1-4612-9540-DA4CBBFE8BB1.thumb.png.fc293690ee7271716e062330781e88e5.png00z D2751CF1-A685-4D08-9963-1F3BB56F5C5D.thumb.png.91e7ec42cf895593691443a40e94c96e.png

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06z is much less progressive -5C isotherm hanging onto the far east late Sunday the 00z had it a several hundred miles east - east Germany. A cold weekend. 

0AF77F0B-7EE7-4E87-951F-EB4A51F2285E.thumb.png.0596823ff2b027851648f4d302fc20c5.pngF199CED1-004E-4524-8997-E09B30FC99BA.thumb.png.6b9e78fd19b9bf66c4926224fd49d894.png

 

Edited by Daniel*

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That pesky Azores High more drawn back on this run...

2A57ABDA-BE01-46DF-8948-ED255E6039CF.thumb.png.13b265ffcd51e7fbd1b295575d3f2760.png14036BB0-B297-420D-AE85-C63F1EBAFDE6.thumb.png.6cceb254599c0c855d12f69eec2e0620.png

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

06z is much less progressive -5C isotherm hanging onto the far east late Sunday the 00z had it a several hundred miles east. A cold weekend. 

0AF77F0B-7EE7-4E87-951F-EB4A51F2285E.thumb.png.0596823ff2b027851648f4d302fc20c5.pngF199CED1-004E-4524-8997-E09B30FC99BA.thumb.png.6b9e78fd19b9bf66c4926224fd49d894.png

 

Yes, a pleasing trend from the 6z. Let's hope it is one that continues in the following runs.

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, a pleasing trend from the 6z. Let's hope it is one that continues in the following runs.

Not a surprise given the gefs yesterday - we should get an idea by tomorrow’s 12z ecm if there is any chance that the ridge ahead of the trough can force it to negatively tilt 

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I've certainly seen less inspiring late January D9 Charts..

gfsnh-0-216.png?6

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not a surprise given the gefs yesterday - we should get an idea by tomorrow’s 12z ecm if there is any chance that the ridge ahead of the trough can force it to negatively tilt 

I'd love to see the ridge become stronger in subsequent runs. The UKMO on the other hand looks the flattest of the three.

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GFS looks as if still going to end up the same, but that is in 10 days time.

 

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I'm hoping the the models overreacted to some signal yesterday and the small steps to extending the cold will continue over the next few runs. Really though for all of the sense of gloom on here are the models really that different for this week from what was shown a few days ago?

Taking the 06z as an example we see the whole country under -5 uppers from later today. The precipitation charts show snow showers for many for at least 24 hours from tonight.

image.thumb.png.800e20be54524f3c6c720078c8fb8183.png We then have the storm bringing milder air for around 12hrs before the cold uppers return bringing a further risk of wintry showers. The cold air then hangs on on this run until Sunday. I understand that it goes downhill a bit after that but as far as this week is concerned - apart from the milder blip associated with the storm - was it ever really that different? Has the cold air been significantly downgraded? Perhaps it has but it seems pretty similar to me?

 

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On the Plus side the 10hPa warming is back... but it's one run, so not holding my breathe.

gfsnh-10-348.png?6

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16 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

GFS looks as if still going to end up the same, but that is in 10 days time.

 

It is a cooler run up to early next week and that's what matters. The last few frames are always meaningless as they never come off.

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10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

On the Plus side the 10hPa warming is back... but it's one run, so not holding my breathe.

gfsnh-10-348.png?6

Also good at 30hpa level but I am always cautious with the strato charts on the 6z.

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The Gfs 6z op run shows some exceptionally mild weather across the southern half of the uk during late January with temps into the low teens celsius from later next week onwards.

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z op run shows some exceptionally mild weather across the southern half of the uk during late January with temps into the low teens celsius from later next week onwards.

who are you? and what have you done with Frosty? :shok:

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It sure has been interesting to watch GFS slowly move almost full-circle back around to what it had in Saturday's 12z run.

I feel like ECM could have had a good go this morning with not a lot more tweaking.

UKMO though... I just don't know to be honest. It's so much flatter even in 4 days time! :shok:

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

who are you? and what have you done with Frosty? :shok:

who ever you are please give us Frosty back ,my dog is growling he knows something is up :angry:

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Seeing how the weather is behaving at the moment, 3 days ahead seems too far, as last friday's GFS's output of this atlantic storm many of us are concentrating on.

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Very interesting tweet from Ian F, (disregard the Local analysis bit).

W COUNTRY Next few days generally windy & particular risk of some strong winds late Weds/early Thurs. Colder tomorrow, with heavy showers esp in W; wintry over high ground & poss to low levels Tues eve. Sat onward v uncertain, due to model analysis uncertainties over the Pacific.

There's hope yet then perhaps....

I presume he is talking about ridging/no ridging in the N pacific?

image.thumb.png.885388bb64fdf525023295f0aa95bd64.png 

Edited by karlos1983

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