Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Recommended Posts

blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, sausage said:

and not sure on the silence. phil avery just on bbc was ramping this up still!! he said a dramatic change. snow showers getting well inland across the board and eventually in the south! looked very wintwry birmingham northwards!!

Why does this always happen? By all accounts, the beeb forecasts have been very reticent about any wintry prospects when the models were mad for it. The moment the models dilute the cold prospects, beeb all of a sudden are over a cold spell like a rash lol. 

Edited by blizzard81
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Nothing to see here 

F32F8A94-ECAA-4B2B-8134-3F9AF25C2588.thumb.png.e89fb38a60b6bf6946fa84dbca73990a.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Nothing to see here 

F32F8A94-ECAA-4B2B-8134-3F9AF25C2588.thumb.png.e89fb38a60b6bf6946fa84dbca73990a.png

Oh, I dont know, theres a pimple on greenland. Its a start.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

I think the 18z and previous runs have been a massive upgrade for those of us that live in Scotland, the snaw chances have greatly increased for us and for many of us its going to be a proper cold old week with plenty of snaw falling and laying, this low was modelled but a few days ago to zip across the south of the country and we were set to miss out. anyways still plenty of winter left for epic charts to come into t0 and deliver for the many not just the few, further upgrades and downgrades as we go along our merry winter way, anyways its Single Malts at the ready, strap ye selves in its gonna be a bumpy ride. tomorrow is another day with more fun and games to come and I think by the time the 6z are out we will have a better handle on the track of this storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Oh, I dont know, theres a pimple on greenland. Its a start.

We already started, same date from the 12z a couple of days ago was like this... 

FCE60549-226C-49C1-A1C8-44FB23BC7B34.thumb.png.45881c21dd30fade9580a9c052389351.png

Painful

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Fi looks different. Got a spanish plume on the way!!!:rofl:

I hope that gets modelled further south coz it might melt all me snaw...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Fi looks different. Got a spanish plume on the way!!!:rofl:

Some kind of Euro heights has been well advertised in the extended range for a while now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Enjoy Scotland, you’re  in for a fascinating week of winter weather. ?

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Yes, everything has just collapsed in the space of 24 hours, westerly winds and now the strat warming has literately wiped - the writing well and truly on the wall now I'm afraid.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, everything has just collapsed in the space of 24 hours, westerly winds and now the strat warming has literately wiped - the writing well and truly on the wall now I'm afraid.

Truly shocking. Even for the battle hardened veterans on this forum, today has been a dark day for coldies. 

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, everything has just collapsed in the space of 24 hours, westerly winds and now the strat warming has literately wiped - the writing well and truly on the wall now I'm afraid.

We may still get the strato warming in February. :drunk-emoji:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

After somber Sunday, let’s hope tomorrow becomes manic Monday!

OK hardly looking brilliant and the pig has gone through a box of Max Factor, but there have been enough GEFS Ens in the past two suites to keep a flicker of hope alive on this one. 

This is not set in stone. Yet.

This midweek storm is still subject to a dramatic shift in both track and intensity. It happens time and time again with these base runners. If the models have over estimated its engagement with the jet streak, just watch it track way south and take the strongest winds down as far as northern France.

This is what we want. I’m not bothered about it in regards to the accompanying transient mild sector, more the potential tipping point that it may provide to heading ‘left at the junction’ instead of right. With no real assistance from upstream amplification next week we need the dominoes to fall right fo us and a strong Northerly tracking storm would appear to miss the next domino when it topples. 

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

 Truly shocking. Even for the battle hardened veterans on this forum, today has been a dark day for coldies. 

A dark day indeed for those in the south of the UK but for us in the North (Scotland) its been a wonderful day of upgrades and increased chances of Snaw and cold, of course with the way the models have been chopping and changing in the last 24 hours things could all look different come this time tomorrow.

Edited by Guest
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ECOSSE1650 Contributor

ECOSSE1650

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Truly shocking. Even for the battle hardened veterans on this forum, today has been a dark day for coldies. 

Maybe in certain areas of the UK, not all.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, karyo said:

We may still get the strato warming in February. :drunk-emoji:

We just love being strung along don't we lol? Even so, too late for my liking. What ever happened to proper snow in january? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

A little ray of hope for coldies in ECM ensembles as a cluster go colder toward end of month. (from around 26th/27/th)

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

People who have access to the info might be able to decipher what pattern that might be but I suspect it is some form of Atlantic blocking rather than cold zonal.

It is interesting because as I said a few days ago GFS ensembles were toying with the idea of increased blocking toward end of Jan.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, everything has just collapsed in the space of 24 hours, westerly winds and now the strat warming has literately wiped - the writing well and truly on the wall now I'm afraid.

20180114_230512.thumb.jpg.2d53bdfe1bafd32620e596a2317fb6e8.jpg

  • Like 9
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

A little ray of hope for coldies in ECM ensembles as a cluster go colder toward end of month. (from around 26th/27/th)

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

People who have access to the info might be able to decipher what pattern that might be but I suspect it is some form of Atlantic blocking rather than cold zonal.

It is interesting because as I said a few days ago GFS ensembles were toying with the idea of increased blocking toward end of Jan.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_276.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_360.

Looks like a little bit of Bartlett ridging North just enough to give a touch of frost I'm afraid - absolute tat.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CK1981 Rising Star

CK1981

Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
Posted

Let’s be realistic. We spend every year chasing fantasy charts and here we are again. Everything is flattening and it’s the form horse, so where do we go from here? The strat may warm at the end of Jan, but ‘if’ that has an affect, it’ll be almost 10 days  later. I think the charts showing at present are an indication of how we should expect things to pan out in the medium term. After that....who knows

Link to comment
Share on other sites
blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

It’s all about 168-192 tomorrow...??

Always seems to be the case. That's the problem! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

You mean the ecm and the arctic high building down from savalbard that it showed ?

about 100-1 shot,of that reaching uk lol:gathering:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...