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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

wrt elevation required i think its very difficult to gauge at the moment.

We will have a better idea in a few days -

I'm with the others in a way, i'm hooping we can see the trough drop into Europe for a sustained period and heights building to the Northwest..

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

There seems to be a lot of posts for the coming week discussing who will get snow , it seems like a totally different forum to that in an Easterly which is strange . I think I’m a PM flow in Jan way more of the population are at risk of snow unlike an Easterly which really only hits the east coast or the south. 

Next week will effect lots more with snow that an decent beast - maybe not as cold but Defo more moisture about 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
37 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I cant decipher whats more crazy??..

The absoulute text book wintryness from the 12z gfs( preety much from monday throughout)...

 

Or that people 'still' are posting-hyperthetical snow charts!!!

This pm incur- is by no way of the norm; and packs a huge punch with the fridgidity/and vent it comes with/from.

There could be mass impactual snowfall anyway from this baby!!...and will be ironed , out with time .

Not going to make comment/analysis on the absoulute massive possibiltes after the pm flow subsides until completion of all 12z today...

                 Gfs12z= corker....

I agree it’s looking very wintery, but with the GFS predicting maximums of around 5 in the south, I can only see temporary slush for most. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There seems to be a lot of posts for the coming week discussing who will get snow , it seems like a totally different forum to that in an Easterly which is strange . I think I’m a PM flow in Jan way more of the population are at risk of snow unlike an Easterly which really only hits the east coast or the south. 

Next week will effect lots more with snow that an decent beast - maybe not as cold but Defo more moisture about 

Spot on ali!!!i really do think if the models stay the way they are we gona snow showers widely down to levels with settling aswell!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, shaky said:

Spot on ali!!!i really do think if the models stay the way they are we gona snow showers widely down to levels with settling aswell!

Ay, if you get rid of Wales :oops:only joking Welsh guys! we look like seeing nothing, as winds look W or WSW'ly, the mountains are in the way, kinda got to hope for some kind of trough like we saw on the evening of 13th Dec

gfs-0-126.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Nowt gonna settle or indeed fall much here in the west mids, according to the national & local charts and forecasts. Looks just cold, bright and windy with the odd wintry shower - at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I agree it’s looking very wintery, but with the GFS predicting maximums of around 5 in the south, I can only see temporary slush for most. 

Heavy PPn, bands of showers merging together will reduce that 5c though to 1c or 2c I would have thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Heavy PPn, bands of showers merging together will reduce that 5c though to 1c or 2c I would have thought.

Yes, but I would have thought any snow on the ground will be very temporary as temperatures fluctuate. I guess we need deeper cold for the snow lovers (which includes me).

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

As long as people have realistic expectations regarding next week then this thread needn’t turn into a battle between high grounders and low grounders!

The set up is one which of course favours high ground but it can throw up the odd surprise elsewhere.

Detail at this range isn’t possible but the nature of the upper air means the freezing level would drop significantly in showers .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Snow!!
  • Location: Isle of Wight

Will the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures come into play more next week regarding type of participation?

Showing up to 10 c colder than mid Atlantic sea temps!!

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/

Capture.PNG

Edited by wightwootton
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As long as people have realistic expectations regarding next week then this thread needn’t turn into a battle between high grounders and low grounders!

The set up is one which of course favours high ground but it can throw up the odd surprise elsewhere.

Detail at this range isn’t possible but the nature of the upper air means the freezing level would drop significantly in showers .

 

Indeed.

Even low ground in places like Lancashire and Greater Manchester exposed to the WNW'ly could see showers turn readily to snow if the showers merge to become a streamer. Entirely feasible in situations like this that even places 50-100m asl see a good couple of inches under such circumstances.

This gave 2 inches of snow in a short amount of time here at 50m asl- streamer set up

archives-2011-12-17-12-0.png

Uppers barely -5...

archives-2011-12-17-12-2.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Interesting GFS 12z with the progression from 120, the trough beefs up as expected early next week bringing in the chilly or even cold north west flow. Then, as has been modelled for the past few runs it digs south east and fills allowing pressure to rise pretty much everywhere in its wake, with no obvious Atlantic push to take its place.

Where exactly everything ends up is anyone's guess at present but the trend it definitely there for a much colder period to follow.

strong north west flow bringing snow to some

IMG_3236.thumb.PNG.16d66bfca25da4b20ea13e5d77b4005e.PNG

And by day 10 the door is open to a much colder flow

IMG_3234.thumb.PNG.2d24ae11021ef4d7ae25bbc20ca86f3a.PNG

IMG_3235.thumb.PNG.3b3bac64a5123e5eaaf5fe6a97f7405c.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I’d advise people to check the 500 level not just the 850 temps. CC has just posted on that.

Everyone knows I’m an easterly groupie but next week looks like fun to watch! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
2 minutes ago, wightwootton said:

Will the North Atlantic sea temperatures come into play more next week regarding type of participation?

Showing up to 10 c colder than mid Atlantic sea temps!!

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/

Capture.PNG

There’s nothing unusual in that, the North Atlantic drift brings warmer waters to our shores, so I’d imagine the models are well used to these temperatures and model accordingly so.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’d advise people to check the 500 level not just the 850 temps. CC has just posted on that.

Everyone knows I’m an easterly groupie but next week looks like fun to watch! 

 

How about your famous crayon job!

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

Yes, but I would have thought any snow on the ground will be very temporary as temperatures fluctuate. I guess we need deeper cold for the snow lovers (which includes me).

It's a very cold airmass at 500mb. coupegfs_-11.2_62.61_-11.21_62.52_132_0_

Frequent convective showers will draw down the cold air and lessen the the likelihood of much melt between. That's straight of the Greenland plateau and surely a perfect recipe for the fabled polar lows.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?mode=12&lat=63.83&lon=-14.48&ech=132&zoom=3

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed.

Even low ground in places like Lancashire and Greater Manchester exposed to the WNW'ly could see showers turn readily to snow if the showers merge to become a streamer. Entirely feasible in situations like this that even places 50-100m asl see a good couple of inches under such circumstances.

This gave 2 inches of snow in a short amount of time here at 50m asl- streamer set up

archives-2011-12-17-12-0.png

Uppers barely -5...

archives-2011-12-17-12-2.png

Yes - that gave me the biggest flakes I have ever seen - it was about 5am in the morning, if it would have carried on for a few hours it would have been a foot of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

How would Newcastle fair in this setup  ? Considering we got half a days snow in a NORTHERLY ! Knew I shouldn’t have told every one of the people Iv ever known about snow and bought a sledge 

The strong flow should help to alleviate some of the problems and could be some disturbances popping up nearer the time.

That detail though isn’t possible this far out. Of course if the trough sinks sufficiently se you might then get a more onshore flow there.

Thats the main uncertainty in the outlook.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
7 minutes ago, snowray said:

This is about as cold as it gets in a PM flow for London. A week of the mean at around -5 hpa and lots of snow chances too.

graphe_ens3.gif

Those 500mb temperature projections look very cold over a sustained period.  I am not sure I have seen them so low so far South for such a long period of time in recent years.  Polar Low territory?  :cold:

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, snowray said:

This is about as cold as it gets in a PM flow for London. A week of the mean at around -5 hpa and lots of snow chances too.

graphe_ens3.gif

That really is very cold for London with a flow off Atlantic!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Those 500mb temperature projections look very cold over a sustained period.  I am not sure I have seen them so low so far South for such a long period of time in recent years.  Polar Low territory?  :cold:

Exactly!! 516DAM( i think it is) is cold..no ifs or butts!

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