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Paul

Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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The icon certainly shows how south the low has moved over the past 24 hours. 80 ish mph over the Midlands  and into east anglia 

IMG_1209.PNG

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19 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

Maybe a bit premature but yesterday's call for an Easterly was brilliant, when nearly everybody else was just seeing Zonal.  

Which model is showing an Easterly at 168hrs? 

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15 minutes ago, Dennis said:

ICON18z

9.png

7.png

4.png

That's looking sweet, I live between the 985 and 990 isobars on the coast, I always miss out on the good stuff but it looks like I'll be hitting wind jackpot on thursday

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Gfs less developed and further south again!!

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Low looks a tiny bit further south on the 18z.

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Glad to see normal service has resumed with the model output returning to the pattern it was showing before it went awol on Saturdays 18z run and Sundays runs. Would be interesting to know exactly what caused the models to flip like they did. Anyway things look back on track and  an east or north easterly airflow looks almost to be a  dead cert ( if there is such a thing with the weather ) by months end into February as I have mentioned a few times lately. Have to say though good call from MR Murr yesterday when he (many posters myself included thought we had been led up the garden path yet again), refused to believe the implosion seen by the synoptics on display.

All to play for again now with confidence very high of potent cold spell just around the corner.

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Low looks a tiny bit further south on the 18z.

Yup and hardly a storm on the 18z!passes around the north midlands!!

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Just now, shaky said:

Yup and hardly a storm on the 18z!passes around the north midlands!!

Comparing last run looks approx 50miles further south. 

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

If it continues i dunno where its gona end up lol!!

Into the chanel on exit bound route!!

The track and modeling has been suggesting this possible/probable scenario.

Isobar, fixing also suggests such..

Also on the broader scale..heights @the pole are evolving nicely- once again(going forwards.)

 

Edited by tight isobar
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The interesting feature on the 12z models for me was that by day 9 both the GFS and Euro had the Siberian High at 1060mb (no doubt why some people are open to a pressure rise to our north east).

Be interesting to see if the 18z maintains that. 

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19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Which model is showing an Easterly at 168hrs? 

I wasn't aware he forecast an Easterly but to look at that period with more scrutiny.

There is a build of high pressure.

gfs-0-192.png?12

Who knows what may transpire from that.

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Lovely push of heights to the pole to our North East

gfsnh-0-108.png?18

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Decent evolvement..

And weakning @the pacific-somewhat!..

On a large scale-micro-scale is of note...and the russian side of play is of note also-regards to placing of height.

Need a bit of luck around the atlantic/into greenland sector...and we are in a completely different ball park...

And things slowly heading down that route!

Screenshot_2018-01-15-21-59-21.png

Screenshot_2018-01-15-21-59-10.png

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6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks like it could be going titus verticus to our East

gfs-0-78.png?18

Perfect conditions for motorboating in the Black Sea.

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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks like it could be going titus verticus to our East

gfs-0-78.png?18

Lol..

Its gonna take for the storm track to be ironed..

And also given current north-hem situ/modeling...and throwing in its the 18z gfs..hardly surprising..but things certainly on an, upwards transition...that russian dig into the pole will likely be the skeleton key...opening the fridge...then freezer door...

Things gaining...-slowly-.

Edited by tight isobar
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Some slight incremental improvements but whilst those heights remain over or close to Spain and Portugal we can forget any major cold spell. Get those oranges to back west a bit and its a completely different position. Unfortunately once established its often hard work to shift them. 

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4 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Hey! My names Simon I am an adult who also was diagnosed with ADHD last month !! It can be difficult for your but there is medication and treatment for it speak to yor GP  meanwhile stay strong and super her and show love even when it gets tough ok. Meanwhile let's hope gfs keeps the snowy theme goin 

Dammit I wasn't expecting to feel feelings tonight on here, lovely message!

I'm personally hoping the low tracks another couple of hundred miles South and brings the South-East into the snow risk.. I can't see it tracking any further South than the South-Midlands but somewhere is going to see some very strong winds whilst other areas see heavy snow. Definitely interesting model watching.

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