Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen
Paul

Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

You mean the ecm and the arctic high building down from savalbard that it showed ?

about 100-1 shot,of that reaching uk lol:gathering:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

It’s all about 168-192 tomorrow...😬🤐

You thinking of a change in that range from what is shown now steve?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_276.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_360.

Looks like a little bit of Bartlett ridging North just enough to give a touch of frost I'm afraid - absolute tat.

No Atlantic blocking but doesn't one of those show an Easterly (Scandi block) by 29th and another a UK high?

Not familiar with those charts or up on my Icelandic

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just seen the latest forcast and all they're saying is watch this space for Tuesday - Thursday. Be prepared for a lot of slight changes on the Models. Yesterday the weather system on Wednesday/Thursday went through the south now it's more towards Scotland. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended up going through the middle. A lot can change in 24hours. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure why everyone jumps on a certain poster. If you’ve been following events, you wouldn’t 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

No Atlantic blocking but doesn't one of those show an Easterly by 29th and another a UK high?

To me they all show Westerlies.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, mattyrayandkay said:

You thinking of a change in that range from what is shown now steve?

Just hang fire to tomorrow eve ....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It’s all about 168-192 tomorrow...😬🤐

Have you been on the sherry again! :D

As backtracks go the last 36 hours would give a trigger shortwave Scandi high trauma a run for its money.

Once again the UK feeding off scraps at the buffet table.

It really does suck to be a coldie in the UK.  

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Plenty of snow to come this week. Not sure what all the fuss is about.

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To me they all show Westerlies.

Okay I will take your word for it as I am not sure how to interpret them  :D

Would of thought that colder cluster on the graph though can't be Westerly based as they have London sub zero at night and 2 or 3C during the day.

 

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Have you been on the sherry again! :D

As backtracks go the last 36 hours would give a trigger shortwave Scandi high trauma a run for its money.

Once again the UK feeding off scraps at the buffet table.

It really does suck to be a coldie in the Southern England.

 

Edited your post for more accuracy..:rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just hang fire to tomorrow eve ....

Steve, you were predicting a very cold flow over the south this weekend (I was dubious with the warm continent). You were quite certain of a col and temperatures close to zero by day. As you know, it’s been far from that cold.....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know, I know, but to just cheer folk up.

P20 - trend setter.

gensnh-20-1-360.png

or insane outlier, you decide:crazy:

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Okay I will take your word for it as I am not sure how to interpret them  :D

Would of thought that colder cluster on the graph though can't be Westerly based as they have London sub zero at night and 2 or 3C during the day.

 

I thought that one with the uk high would still give frosts under clear skies or the slack one that's not far off a continental drift without actually being one but I stand corrected because I hate those charts and maybe its me who cant read them!

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

Steve, you were predicting a very cold flow over the south this weekend (I was dubious with the warm continent). You were quite certain of a col and temperatures close to zero by day. As you know, it’s been far from that cold.....

Yep - not as cold as predicted — but the 500Mb pattern was pretty good match for Europe-

The 2 late Minor models continue to push back south of the storm

E4F779E2-A58F-4942-9791-89CB1F0C9BA6.thumb.png.4635e263ed40fab03a0eb7bf6d2e0f99.pngAD444390-A2AD-4777-AE34-C3283AE74FD6.thumb.png.c6ff4f92044c57ed26f7188fffdc7350.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ian F has just tweeted that Thursday storm could be 250 miles further North or South than currently shown, still lots of uncertainty from METO.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ensembles say it all really. Cold for the north till end of the week and then huge uncertainty after that. The jetstream is meandering alot so I dont buy zonal mild trash. 

t850Western~Isles.png

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Ian F has just tweeted that Thursday storm could be 250 miles further North or South than currently shown, still lots of uncertainty from METO.

Yes... uncertainty seen in the ensembles. That rouge run... t850Western~Isles.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep - not as cold as predicted — but the 500Mb pattern was pretty good match for Europe-

The 2 late Minor models continue to push back south of the storm

E4F779E2-A58F-4942-9791-89CB1F0C9BA6.thumb.png.4635e263ed40fab03a0eb7bf6d2e0f99.pngAD444390-A2AD-4777-AE34-C3283AE74FD6.thumb.png.c6ff4f92044c57ed26f7188fffdc7350.png

Let’s see how it pans out...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I know, I know, but to just cheer folk up.

P20 - trend setter.

gensnh-20-1-360.png

or insane outlier, you decide:crazy:

There's a few stonkers in there actually - more than I thought looking at the mean.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There's a few stonkers in there actually - more than I thought looking at the mean.

How many are we looking at?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Looking great for my area (West-Central Scotland) for snow in the next 72-96 hours! Models are giving some great snow potential from that midweek storm (Fionn soon maybe?), along with all those bloody showers from tomorrow evening onwards! 

Shame that this week's potential is being dampened by the IMBYness in here, just because it's not what a lot of us want. I was bloody fuming when those sliders were dumping FEET of snow in the Midlands, now it's our turn! :D

 

Well said! 

As you said lots of potential for snow to fall here across Scotland over the coming week. If the models are correct then some areas could see some serious amounts of snow.

Thundersnow? Yes please! :yahoo:

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

There's a few stonkers in there actually - more than I thought looking at the mean.

and the good thing about it is, any one of those "stonkers" is a feasible outcome. :good:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By Paul
      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
      Please keep on topic in this thread, by only discussing the model output. This isn't the place to be discussing (or arguing) over weather preferences and the like, so please don't be tempted to go there! And as ever, please also keep it friendly...
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By phil nw.
      Well we are around the halfway point of the Spring season and it seems a good time to start a new thread to continue discussions.
      A look at the 00z ECM day 4 charts shows that finally some widespread warmth is on the way after the cold,damp and often cloudy conditions of recent weeks.

      A developing Euro high and a stalling Atlantic trough pushing the jet stream further north and bringing the winds from a warmer south/south westerly direction.
      A welcome change of pattern for most of us i would think.
      Ok please continue 
       
       
       
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×