Model output discussion - mid-winter

[bobbydog]

Just now, shaky said:

Icon 18z less deep by 10mb and ever so slightly further south!!

still plenty of scope for change between now and thursday. by then, it'll be a high pressure system in khazakstan! 

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon 18z less deep by 10mb and ever so slightly further south!!

Still crazy wind speeds  across large swaths of Wales and England  

[Gowon]

The JMA appears to be more amplified to our N/NE at 192 with the low held out further west..

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Still crazy wind speeds  across large swaths of Wales and England  

Yup and further south so more of england and wales gets a battering!!

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup and further south so more of england and wales gets a battering!!

Interesting, will know in about 15 mind if GFS moves it south 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting, will know in about 15 mind if GFS moves it south 

Man you just never know!!doubt it but could throw up a surprise maybe!!

[aggy]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles for Thursday generally has the storm striking S Scotland worst, 100-120mph max gusts for the western Isles, 90-100mph for mainland coast around Ayr and 80-90mph for big cities.

N England generally 60-80mph - not as severe as yesterday.

Only a minority bring the worst of the storm south.

I'll move my posts on this to the short range thread now

I live in Ayr ?

[Ali1977]

At T54 an early shout,  but it’s looking very slightly further south, along with a slight weakening of the jet 

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

At T54 an early shout,  but it’s looking very slightly further south, along with a slight weakening of the jet 

5mb higher aswell at 60 hours compares to 12z!!might not make a difference anyway!!10 mb higher at 72 hours!!

Edited January 14, 2018 by shaky

[doctor32]

Not as deep this run, more in line with latest meto/beeb thinking in track.

Still risk of snow northern parts of low, and widespread damaging gusts on southern flank.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

5mb higher aswell at 60 hours compares to 12z!!might not make a difference anyway

20-40 miles further south, not making much of a difference to snow or wind issues - Scotland taking the brunt !!

[Had Worse]

Not much in it. slightly less deep on the 18z although it could be on the drop as it crosses through the country. The gradient to the south looks the same.

[weirpig]

60mph gusts widely 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Not as deep this run, more in line with latest meto/beeb thinking in track.

Still risk of snow northern parts of low, and widespread damaging gusts on southern flank.

As you say though its still a downgrade wind wise, if it tracked much further south I would prefer it, it might then give decent dumping of snow but it isn't going to happen no, any slushy accumulations from Tuesday will definitely be washed  away now so for me its about who can climb aboard the hurricane force wind Jackpot train.

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

60mph gusts widely 

Back to being a bad storm rather than a severe one, but just one run of course.

[swfc]

Pretty terrible 18z imo.Also pressure building to the south

[tvh3382]

If it is shifted south by 20 or 30 miles every 6 hours then come Thursday it will be over Southern England  come Thursday.

[terrier]

Well the gfs 18z just about sums up the models today. Thankfully I fly back to Spain next weekend. As this uk break has once again been a boring snowless affair once again. 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

funny isn't it. when the models, (which respond to the input data taken from the ever-evolving weather) suddenly switch from showing a mild outlook to a cold one, they are brilliant. there are enthusiastic discussions around which one did the excellent job of picking up the signal first. ( unless they show mild, then they are "cannon fodder") and how well they are performing. yet when the opposite happens (like now) suddenly they are "junk" and its a "debacle" as to how poor they are performing. thing is, this happens all the time - they evolve and the output changes frequently - but who notices in the middle of spring or summer?....

For pity's sake! This gets mentioned every year. Of course no one notices in spring and summer. Reason? The vast majority on this forum are cold/snow fanatics, myself included. 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well the gfs 18z just about sums up the models today. Thankfully I fly back to Spain next weekend. As this uk break has once again been a boring snowless affair once again. 

Not quite true.

The hills above say 250m will get a good dumping.

[bobbydog]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

For pity's sake! This gets mentioned every year. Of course no one notices in spring and summer. Reason? The vast majority on this forum are cold/snow fanatics, myself included. 

i think you missed the point....

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Not quite true.

The hills above say 250m will get a good dumping.

Not good enough. Same as saying a ten quid win on the lottery will change your life. 

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Not good enough. Same as saying a ten quid win on the lottery will change your life. 

Got me out of my student overdraft  

I still think things could happen before thursday, if not. I'm not worried. Always later on, or feb. If you want snow badly buy a snow machine.

Plenty of time of adjustments as models edge closer yes to this colder spell. But small things may help!

[sausage]

and not sure on the silence. phil avery just on bbc was ramping this up still!! he said a dramatic change. snow showers getting well inland across the board and eventually in the south! looked very wintwry birmingham northwards!!

[Snowmadsam]

Here we go, a ridge in FI! Oh no, here we go again!! Oh dear me!