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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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This country is just bloody annoying for coldies!! The amount of good runs that all of a sudden get watered down nearer the time is crazy....Still, time to turn this around but if not by the 12Zs then I think it’s not looking good - cold with some snow for some to enjoy next week still however .

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This country is just bloody annoying for coldies!! The amount of good runs that all of a sudden get watered down nearer the time is crazy....Still, time to turn this around but if not by the 12Zs then I think it’s not looking good - cold with some snow for some to enjoy next week still however .

Yep, the NWP all trending the wrong way. To be honest the Westerly “blast” was never going to deliver much here. Temps of 8C with a breeze - yippee!! Just disappointed with the medium term outlook now - the dreaded AZH showing its hand.

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Said it before say it again...because cold and snow is so rare here the models all struggle, that coupled with the changing climate is the problem.

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13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep, the NWP all trending the wrong way. To be honest the Westerly “blast” was never going to deliver much here. Temps of 8C with a breeze - yippee!! Just disappointed with the medium term outlook now - the dreaded AZH showing its hand.

I’m still not sure the track of that low is so north, the BBC still have it 500 miles further south at the minute on their forecast, that should be updated sooner see what that says I guess

Edited by Ali1977

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The 0z runs pretty much continue the poor output from the 18z. It looks like another cold spell has been downgraded again. From days of winter wonderland charts to nothingness within a few runs, we saw it with the Easterly a week or so ago and now this Nwesterly/northerly. Trends look poor this morning.

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31 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, nearly choked on my Alpin this morning  when I saw the latest UKMO model. What a flip in 24 hours from winter wonderland charts to yet more tiresome milder charts. Gone the sinking European trough and in comes the Azores effect. ECM still shows some hope but think not all is resolved as the wave/ runner to develop along the PFJ not yet in sight of shorter range reliability. Could easily flip back again today to the charts most on here would desire.

C

Unfortunately the latest fax chart at 84h based on UKMO raw data develops the wave to be further north and deeper on this run. So looks like the colder air to be displaced by a rather larger warm sector for a while over England and Wales before cold flow returns quickly back. Still expect a correction on further runs.

C

fax84s.gif

Edited by carinthian

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1 minute ago, Bobby93 said:

The 0z runs pretty much continue the poor output from the 18z. It looks like another cold spell has been downgraded again. From days of winter wonderland charts to nothingness within a few runs, we saw it with the Easterly a week or so ago and now this Nwesterly/northerly. Trends look poor this morning.

Yep, sorry to see for you guys. Maybe a upgrade tonight ?

 C

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Morning-

Total & utter woeful models today - The cold spell has more or less evaporated & for anyone hoping for anything more meaningful from the North or East forget it-

Have a good day-

S

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8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yep, sorry to see for you guys. Maybe a upgrade tonight ?

 C

We'll hold out hope! But unfortunately once we see a cold spell downgraded, and as we've seen so many times before. Once the downgrades on a cold spell begin, that process then usually accelerates rather than reverse back to cold unfortunately.

Edited by Bobby93
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Doubt it. Once things start to downgrade there is usually no stopping it. It begs the question of why they bother to model past 144 hours - it's always wrong / not anywhere near. 

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Ah the Shakespearean tragedy of model watching! I was wondering when it was going to fall apart. If it’s too good to be true - it probably is!

Try and keep the faith folks! But remember the models are a guide as to what MAY happen. The only thing that will happen will be decided by the weather

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I still don't think the models have nailed the track of the midweek low yet so anything that happens beyond that upstream is subject to change..:)

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I still don't think the models have nailed the track of the midweek low yet so anything that happens beyond that upstream is subject to change..:)

I think they are closing in on a consensus of through the north Midlands. The positioning of this low even if a couple of 100 miles different won't significantly impact the upstream. 

Back to turd polishing again this morning with the models lol. 

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I still don't think the models have nailed the track of the midweek low yet so anything that happens beyond that upstream is subject to change..:)

Yes 72 hours away today's 12z is our only hope of a correction. 

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5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I know most of the UK won’t see any snow over the next five days but I am buzzing like an old fridge for the coming week!

Very Wintry week ahead here in Scotland - especially my location. 

The GFS chart and Metoffice snapshots of my location below sums up what is currently expected from Monday evening throughout the week - can see a moderate accumulation of snow here on the ground for five days. 

Have had a fantastic Winter up here so far. :snowman-emoji:

I really hope everyone else joins in the fun soon - still month and a half of Winter left so keep the faith! 

FAD490C9-3531-4C0D-9672-4D8AF4277605.png

680DFC60-8706-4BCC-A970-92CFA1E6DA8C.png

0F59E6EB-471F-41BB-A702-7BACF164C19A.png

CC601376-1338-4A76-AE3F-EFEFB65AC492.png

4EE44482-6D6B-4732-82C6-AB2FC36DF0D7.png

Yes it is great for Scotland but even a terrible winter will deliver for Scotland. 

There is a village in the Sahara that has seen more lying snow in the last five years than my location. At least we get good weather in summer I suppose. 

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2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Yes 72 hours away today's 12z is our only hope of a correction. 

Yes the gfs and ecm both show a different track to the wed / thurs low and the tv forecast I saw shows it zipping across southern uk so hopefully we should have better agreement by this afternoon / evenings 12z runs.:)

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Im not that surprised at the dreadful output this morning because the hints were there in the form of the GEM, Arpege and some of the GEFS ensembles yesterday.

Only straw to clutch is didn't GP say to be sceptical of any output showing a W,ly? If so lets hope he is right because currently the opposite is happening in the output.

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I've looked at the charts.

It' more of a NWW airflow with some snow to higher western locations and Northern England.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

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2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Im not that surprised at the dreadful output this morning because the hints were there in the form of the GEM, Arpege and some of the GEFS ensembles yesterday.

Only straw to clutch is didn't GP say to be sceptical of any output showing a W,ly? If so lets hope he is right because currently the opposite is happening in the output.

That low on Thursday is not nailed down yet,  it has be modeled differently in the last four runs. I think we have one bite of the cherry left. 

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2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes it is great for Scotland but even a terrible winter will deliver for Scotland. 

There is a village in the Sahara that has seen more lying snow in the last five years than my location. At least we get good weather in summer I suppose. 

Complete misconception regarding lowland areas of Scotland ie the most densely populated central belt....but hey, weather warnings for severe weather which covers almost 36 hours and probably involves all manner of chaos is not worth the mention,even is this particular pattern was described as rare as hens gold teeth not more than three days ago..... which incidentally equates to roughly 34 years as this was the last time such a westerly pattern delivered for parts of the UK. Hardly meaningless from the North, is it.

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GFS ensemble highlight the marked change in the mid term with a much milder/less cold outlook.

Thursdays storm intensifies and interacts with the trough subsequently driving it north east instead of continuing to dig down south east into Europe hence the lack of convincing blocking into the weekend.

IMG_3243.thumb.PNG.e0dbed5291880ec55daf92f610d4f846.PNG

 

Edited by chris55

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Ah the same old outcome. Nice blocked scenario appears, as we get closer to the time the models completely underplay the weather coming off the east of the USA, and the jet powers some low pressure through and we end up with nothing. Seen it so many times.....shame really. Only going to have about 4/5 weeks left to get anything meaningful out of winter now, let hope something else turns up.

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Weather doesnt do what people want - its how systems are made (Highs/Lows) and how stratosphere gives the signs in wintertimes

 

 

5.jpg

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Just now, TEITS said:

Im not that surprised at the dreadful output this morning because the hints were there in the form of the GEM, Arpege and some of the GEFS ensembles yesterday.

Only straw to clutch is didn't GP say to be sceptical of any output showing a W,ly? If so lets hope he is right because currently the opposite is happening in the output.

Yes Teits the Nwp is showing exactly the kind of over the top westerly signal GP was referring to. I think we'll find the medium to longer range reality is closer to yesterdays GFS 12z  than this mornings output.

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