Model output discussion - mid-winter

[karlos1983]

Looks alright to me, snow showers packing into the south western corner of the uk 

As well as Scotland, wales and NW England and NI

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks alright to me, snow showers packing into the south western corner of the uk 

As well as Scotland, wales and NW England and NI

That's what the rainfall pattern often ends up being from a wet northwesterly, so hardly surprising that it's the same for snowfall hehe. 

I think above anything else, I'm a little concerned about wind next week. Thank heavens it's the 18Z and Wednesday's low has been tracking southwards in earlier runs. Hopefully this will be a trend a la UKMO.

[i luv snow]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

IF - and its a big if, it tracks further south (always a possibility), it could be another 18th Dec 2010 for you - I know your location got battered because there was an Ipswich town match on the day a late kick off and it was a blizzard - somehow the game got completed - I think.

I am from Ipswich originally and I remember that date well, I remember around 12-15cm in London/EA at the time.

Match day news report includes a photo demonstrating the blizzard: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/championship/8212082/Ipswich-Town-3-Leicester-City-0-match-report.html

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I hope it's not bin night in Liverpool... 

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks alright to me, snow showers packing into the south western corner of the uk 

As well as Scotland, wales and NW England and NI

I think some would rather have a blizzard and keep the roof on. 

Cant get stresses over will it/ wont it snow but trees being felled and structural damage followed by a big freeze is different.

[Snow Grain]

Some people are expecting too much from this set up.  it’s looking like being windy at times with plenty of rain and showers, snow on high ground and occasionally at lower levels.  Temperatures just below normal.  Night time temperatures dropping later in the week, once the wind calms down.  I really can’t see anything else unless there are upgrades.

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

I think some would rather have a blizzard and keep the roof on. 

Cant get stresses over will it/ wont it snow but trees being felled and structural damage followed by a big freeze is different.

looking forward  the take the express comes  up with  if the models  are  right  more  like  the  film day after  tomorow  headlines!!

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

I hope it's not bin night in Liverpool... 

Mild, strong winds and heavy rain - Horrid, horrid, horrid. The type of winter weather I detest.

A track further south would give me a good dumping of snow. My favourite winter weather.

Thin line that shows how small changes can make for big differences across the UK.

Enough IMBYism from me. A half way house between the GFS/ECM and UKMO would probably take it across a central swathe of the UK as a moderately deep/strong system.

Edited January 13, 2018 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, snowice said:

It's a blip cold follows on in the run.! 

it dosen't really, GEM not far off this, EC 240 also

[Banbury]

Completely different to what the Beeb are thinking , be different again tomorrow don’t open the champagne yet

[Stormeh]

If the 18z was to be correct then central Scotland could possibly come to a standstill come Thursday morning!

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I think some would rather have a blizzard and keep the roof on. 

Cant get stresses over will it/ wont it snow but trees being felled and structural damage followed by a big freeze is different.

It’s a storm, we get plenty of them, 70-90mph gusts of wind aren’t common place, but not unheard of in winter for Britain. We are an island on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean.

I really enjoy a good storm, extremes of weather is what interests me. 

[doctor32]

20 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

You both like cold rain then? Would be too mild for snow even in your locations. Mild section is all the way up to Southern Scotland. Ghastly run for large swathes of the UK from that system.

Nope, however it could well produce some decent snow as it moves over... Many factors depending, as ever it will be different again in morning... But like everyone else on here we are all hoping it is in the right place to deliver something wintry.

*So the further north the better 

For us NE England folk!*

Edited January 13, 2018 by doctor32

[OfficialKevWX]

2 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Nope, however it could well produce some decent snow as it moves over... Many factors depending, as ever it will be different again in morning... But like everyone else on here we are all hoping it is in the right place to deliver something wintry.

So the further north the better 

Unless you live in Central / North Scotland, I wouldn’t be hoping for a more N track, the more N and deep the LP is the more milder air it brings with it, so therefore less of a snow event. The further south and more shallower it is the more of a snow event it would be

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

Nope, however it could well produce some decent snow as it moves over... Many factors depending, as ever it will be different again in morning... But like everyone else on here we are all hoping it is in the right place to deliver something wintry.

So the further north the better 

The low itself would only bring snow to parts of Scotland on that run. The mild sector gets very far north, all the way to Southern Scotland. Any further north and even Scotland will only see rain from it. That’s not counting the snow shower risk before and after that system moves through, of course.

[damianslaw]

Lots of speculation of the anticipated runner feature - but we are 4 days away from when it is projected, and so expect further changes in coming model runs about its whereabouts, If I was the Met/BBC I would be saying there is large room for change up to the 24 hr timeframe, its a developing situation, we need to get to Tuesday first.

 

[karyo]

39 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The original exit point of the storm was further south out the states however the 18z Jet was slightly less attenuated at that point so it will come in through Ireland-

behind this a better ridge shape !

The ridge is also looking weaker to me. Not a good 18z so far.

[ukpaul]

29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ouch...80mph winds showing in that strip Liverpool across to the Wash

Which I'm slap bang in the middle of and, at that time in the morning, getting around and over the Pennines could be very hairy. The systems usually trend south in the last few days (and in December removed the snow which we were forecast to have - twice - dammit!) so the presumption has to be that it will again. Won't it? With a freeze by that evening and any grit washed away before that I presume the authorities are praying for it to go south.

[Mapantz]

What makes this slightly tricky, is that the GFS shows the area of low pressure deepening as it arrives, while it's over  the UK, and when it is exiting, rather than filling when it get's to our shores. A nasty little feature that occurs circa a new moon as well.

[Dennis]

No ONE can tell the track NOW - even computers in this stage of time

[Bobby93]

18z looking pretty poor it must be said, hopefully we've not been lured into another cold spell only for it to be watered down as the runs progress over the next 24hrs or so.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Bobby93

[doctor32]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

The low itself would only bring snow to parts of Scotland on that run. The mild sector gets very far north, all the way to Southern Scotland. Any further north and even Scotland will only see rain from it. That’s not counting the snow shower risk before and after that system moves through, of course.

I see your point.

But the track it has been taking, ie... Further south would produce nothing for us up here, so would rather take this chance.

Snow as it arrives and as it clears, with potential of some gusty winds to boot. 

Something to keep me away from here and look out the window 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

No ONE can tell the track NOW - even computers in this stage of time

Indeed dennis.

This makes for, major divergence..

And with a major gradient factor due to vent/wind insurge..

Im still going with a drop-track...then a zipper through southern counties, perhaps a chanel runner as the flow becomes stable!!

[radiohead]

18Z ICON painting a picture of major disruption.

[bluearmy]

Note that the eps are very undercutty day 9/11 on the Atlantic following the ridge. They lose their way thereafter in general but that’s well into their low res.