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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Even 20cm of precipitation is ridiculous. that's nearly 8 inches of rain! 

I’m open to correction 

But I thought 1mm rain equates to 1cm of snow 

so 20cm of snow imho wouldn’t be 8inches of rain. 

 

I could be wrong of course. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Agreed! No slider on offer in that chart. The Atlantic ready to take control.

gfs2.2018012012.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc ukm2.2018012012.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

GFS has a similar configuration at +168 in that chart view but further west, and the slider not only takes place but misses to our west. So UKMO could actually bring a slider through the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
4 minutes ago, offerman said:

I’m open to correction 

But I thought 1mm rain equates to 1cm of snow 

so 20cm of snow imho wouldn’t be 8inches of rain. 

 

I could be wrong of course. 

The comment was may not be 20cm of snow but 20cm of precipitation. Well if it is not snow then that leaves, hail, rain and sleet. 20cm of hail  would cause as much chaos as 20cm of snow! And if it 20cm of rain or sleet over 3 days get the sandbags!

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

gfs2.2018012012.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc ukm2.2018012012.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

GFS has a similar configuration at +168 in that chart view but further west, and the slider not only takes place but misses to our west. So UKMO could actually bring a slider through the UK.

Yes on reflection its those charts - they do my head in, its not just that you cant see beggar, its the angle, meteociel NH charts are the best perspective you can get on the pattern by a mile.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

gfs2.2018012012.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc ukm2.2018012012.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

GFS has a similar configuration at +168 in that chart view but further west, and the slider not only takes place but misses to our west. So UKMO could actually bring a slider through the UK.

There are significant differences. Not only the gfs has everything further west (as you say) but also the ridge is stronger which encourages the system to slide. Also, the Azores high is further east on the ECM and look how much more energy goes over the top.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
3 minutes ago, karyo said:

There are significant differences. Not only the gfs has everything further west (as you say) but also the ridge is stronger which encourages the system to slide. Also, the Azores high is further east on the ECM and look how much more energy goes over the top.

Fair enough - each to their own on this; without being able to see how far the ridge extends to the NW of the slanted low on the UKMO, I wouldn't want to make a call either way (hence I had to make do with could be a slider outcome rather than would). As for the ECM, I'm not sure the more eastward position explains just how mobile it became. Indeed, there is as much of a slider as GFS on day 8 before the upstream momentum springs up.

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Much more interesting, and for some, exciting weather on the way next week. The Ecm 12z shows some very nice chart for coldies, especially later next week when even colder air spreads south. I'm sure some of us will get a covering of snow, perhaps several during next week and some very cold frosty / icy nights, especially over any lying snow..a much better week ahead than this one for sure!:):cold-emoji:

72_mslp500.png

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168_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Fair enough - each to their own on this; without being able to see how far the ridge extends to the NW of the slanted low on the UKMO, I wouldn't want to make a call either way (hence I had to make do with could be a slider outcome rather than would). As for the ECM, I'm not sure the more eastward position explains just how mobile it became. Indeed, there is as much of a slider as GFS on day 8 before the upstream momentum springs up.

I wonder if the forecasted sudden death of the MJO wave is affecting the models today.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, karyo said:

I wonder if the forecasted sudden death of the MJO wave is affecting the models today.

Not sure that would show up this quickly given the normal lag response. The slowdown in the signal isn’t really evident until phase 4 .

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

ECM is weaker with the low as it crosses UK (and further S) than this morning's run. Gusts inland shown to be around 70-75 mph. As it exits UK though, gusts are shown to increase into the 90s off the Kent coast!

That's the bother for me - if it goes into the strengthening phase whilst crossing the UK. Very rare to get a low that actually increases in intensity over land -  a line of gusts around 80mph from Birmingham down to Essex develops before it leaves. That's not dissimilar to what many places got for the Burns Day storm.

Incidentally, the EC control run sees the low hit Lancashire at a full 100mph. In fact it's a scene of carnage across most of the EC ensembles tonight.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Man With Beard said:

Incidentally, the EC control run sees the low hit Lancashire at a full 100mph.

Doesn't surprise me at all. There's definitely potential for a 100mph storm, as shown on the 0z ECM and GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

all i say this cold spell is here to at least the end  of  jan if fantasy world  right and it could get  a ;lot  of snow if its  right!!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Presumably this is the path that Mogreps takes the low then as it isn’t ECM or UKMO? We will get another insight tommorow on the week ahead forecast. Shame Ian F doesn’t post here anymore. 

 

 

 

D027DCE1-30F9-436F-809B-524F0C9AB5A0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Presumably this is the path that Mogreps takes the low then as it isn’t ECM or UKMO? We will get another insight tommorow on the week ahead forecast. Shame Ian F doesn’t post here anymore. 

 

 

 

D027DCE1-30F9-436F-809B-524F0C9AB5A0.png

Presumably-

Though the track of this potential storm won't be resolved until under 48 hrs out IMO

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I will have an EPS member no 36 please - nearly a metre of lying snow by the end of the run around the Greater Manchester / West Yorks N Derbys area.:laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Interesting that the FIM (GFS Sister model) doesn't develop the severe storm shortwave at all.

EDIT : It is actually there but its really far south and barely a feature.

Incidentally, this model also has much more realistic snowfall charts so those overdone snow charts will be a thing of the past if it does ever take over from the GFS.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

We could also see a scenario where the low runs through the channel giving a spell of snow across the south. Definitely one to watch!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Presumably this is the path that Mogreps takes the low then as it isn’t ECM or UKMO? We will get another insight tommorow on the week ahead forecast. Shame Ian F doesn’t post here anymore. 

 

 

 

D027DCE1-30F9-436F-809B-524F0C9AB5A0.png

I still think the middle 3rd of the UK will have a decent blizzard from this, not sure it will track back towards Scotland but can’t see it being modelled further south that this. I think by tomorrow evening we should have a decent idea give or take 50 miles.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Just now, Ali1977 said:

I still think the middle 3rd of the UK will have a decent blizzard from this, not sure it will track back towards Scotland but can’t see it being modelled further south that this. I think by tomorrow evening we should have a decent idea give or take 50 miles.

as @CreweCold said, this won't be pinned down until around 48 hours before and even then adjusments are likely. i've seen many a storm modelled at this range to rip through the middle of the UK, only for it to end up in northern france, or not even powerful enough to blow the dust off my sledge...

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
2 hours ago, Danny* said:

A general sign that out "cold spell" (meh, if you live in the South) is going to end is cold air flooding across the Eastern Seaboard, this only serves to power up the jet and blast the Atlantic towards the UK. Something that seems to have become a consistent feature in winters over the last few years.

If you live in the North and West you'll do well out of this setup. If you live say, South of the M4 then hopefully rain and gales are your thing, because it looks like we'll be seeing plenty of that down here. 

Cracking end to the GFS with that Easterly but as yet, very little support for it anywhere other than the GFS Det, given the last "Easterly" I wouldn't pin too much hope on that one materialising. 

Having said all that, I'm off to look at houses, I'm fed up of living in the South now.

A quick Google search shows winter 1963 was well below average in the USA, so I don’t think there is much corrolation. 

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1964.9927013?journalCode=vwws20

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, Alexis said:

A quick Google search shows winter 1963 was well below average in the USA, so I don’t think there is much corrolation. 

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1964.9927013?journalCode=vwws20

indeed as was 1947. It is complete and utter meteorological nonsense to say categorically that the USA and Europe can't both be cold and snowy. 

Feb  1978 saw a massive blizzard and bitter cold in the Northern USA and within a week the UK was plunged into the freezer and the great southwest Blizzard of 78.

It all depends on the atmospheric configuration on offer at the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

The monster of Greenland blows the winter to west Europe

7568.png

It's almost like the weather has been trying but failing to get cold air to the UK all winter and it's just gone "sod it, lets do it the hard way then"

Edited by Danny*
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