Model output discussion - mid-winter

[karlos1983]

ECM seems fairly onboard. You could say the UKMO isn’t onboard atm

[Banbury]

The Beeb had snow across MBY midweek , the LP was much further South than GFS

 

 Will change of course 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Banbury

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just a word before the 12s

we have seen small compact deep storms modelled before by the GFS with a verification stat of pretty close to zero-

Although at least the storm is in the semi reliable timeframe

The euros aren’t on board so for me expect a watered down southerly track - midlands the best bet!

The ECM is similar to the gfs though. So it is not the euros against the gfs.

[karlos1983]

Hands up who’s watching the ICON roll out  

[MattStoke]

Ian Fergusson has tweeted that the UKMO (Mogreps) solution is marginally favoured for now, i.e. The low tracking further south.

Apologies if already posted.

 

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just a word before the 12s

we have seen small compact deep storms modelled before by the GFS with a verification stat of pretty close to zero-

Although at least the storm is in the semi reliable timeframe

The euros aren’t on board so for me expect a watered down southerly track - midlands the best bet!

I see gusts upto 41 m/s for my region in the EC plume, so I wouldn't say the euros aren’t on board 

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Ian Fergusson has tweeted that the UKMO (Mogreps) solution is marginally favoured for now, i.e. The low tracking further south.

Apologies if already posted.

 

As per the most recent forecast 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

The ECM is similar to the gfs though. So it is not the euros against the gfs.

Glad the IF tweet agrees-

[shaky]

Would not be surprised to see 12z shunt things south again!!

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Glad the IF tweet agrees-

Let's hope they are right but the ECM agrees with the GFS. 

[Man With Beard]

Looking through those 51 ECM ensembles again for next Thursday, every single one produces gusts over 60mph and perhaps 35 have inland gusts of between 70mph and 85mph in various parts of the UK - a few up to 90mph and even more.

Even more consistent was the tendency to deepen the low even further in the North Sea. At least 50% of members have it gusting 90mph or more on the Netherlands coast - a few over 100mph.

If anything, the ECM 00Z ensembles were more into this storm than the GEFS 00Z/06Z.

[Spah1]

Lets see where this evenings runs take it. 

[Rocheydub]

12’s out in the next while, so we'll probably see why IF tweeted that. Hopefully the yanks and the euros are way off and the UKMO are leading the way! Not only would the former models wreak havoc with damaging gusts, but the snow lovers would have a very mild sector to deal with, rain and melting snow causing flooding too! 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Rocheydub

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking through those 51 ECM ensembles again for next Thursday, every single one produces gusts over 60mph and perhaps 35 have inland gusts of between 70mph and 85mph in various parts of the UK - a few up to 90mph and even more.

Even more consistent was the tendency to deepen the low even further in the North Sea. At least 50% of members have it gusting 90mph or more on the Netherlands coast - a few over 100mph.

If anything, the ECM 00Z ensembles were more into this storm than the GEFS 00Z/06Z.

Get what you mean mate but how can you believe them when just yesterday most of them had it around  the m4 or further south!!not saying its wrong but it can easily change again!!

[karlos1983]

“Presently v uncertain, ukmo marginally favoured” so that doesn’t indicate they are dismissing ecm at all, just backing there own horse at the moment....just about!!!

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

"This MJO event is doing work on N. Hemispheric circulation"

what does this mean for us? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Icon LOOKING LIKE VERY slightly further South than the 6z run.

EDIT : Not much in it though - if anything, certainly not enough to avoid some damaging (or stonking) winds, whatever your storm standpoint is.

Edited January 13, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Icon LOOKING LIKE VERY slightly further South than the 6z run.

Aaaah by the time it arrives it will be in the channel??

[karlos1983]

Icon 

More like GFS/ECM than ukmo 

yikes

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[Thunderywintrysnow]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Icon 

More like GFS/ECM than ukmo 

Yea but it's further South on this run than 00z so it is a correction South. Out of models it had low further north on 00z.

[shaky]

Gfs not as developed with that shortwave at 60 hours!!might just be a delay thats all!!

[andymusic]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Icon 

More like GFS/ECM than ukmo 

yikes

Wales gets a direct hit - BULLSEYE

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Aaaah by the time it arrives it will be in the channel??

Id rather have one or the other, id rather either it was very far south to keep the cold uppers and not kill the convection or have it bang just under me so as to give me a 100mph gusts but also the outside chance of some wintrieness in the mix as well (proper blizzard).

[karyo]

The 12z ICON continues with its northerly track. Thursday's low is going through northern Ireland and Scotland according to this run.

[andymusic]

and here comes the snow