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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

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2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

you've no idea the exact route it'll take yet until closer to the time - so who knows where the line will be drawn for who gets snow/sleet/rain/blizzard/hurricane etc etc

One thing is certain... the snow will track north of the M4!  :rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

you've no idea the exact route it'll take yet until closer to the time - so who knows where the line will be drawn for who gets snow/sleet/rain/blizzard/hurricane etc etc

True but only the UKMO takes the low further south. If it was just the gfs I would be more optimistic.

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Just to review the precipitation numbers over the next week:

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

The NW facing coasts and hills are set to take a pounding with some worrying rainfall (snowfall) numbers yet much less further east and south.

 

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7 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

The deep low pressure is being over played by the models along with the shower activity.

we are looking at a windy week with showers, mostly of rain, away from elevation.  Showers reducing towards the end of the week with some sharp frosts.

day time temperatures generally between 3 and 8 degrees c.  After next weekend we may see higher temperatures move in from the west.  I am not seeing enough HP to the north at present to assist in giving more interesting weather for coldies.

What makes you think the shower activity is being overplayed? 

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1 hour ago, Chevron12345 said:

Models show wet and windy..for most. 

Blimey this is hard work , you say definitely wet and windy no it’s not and it’s a poorly worded post

so it’s a given then rain and wind for most , your really not helping any newbies . 

Its a million miles from being nailed on there are so many more model runs to come it will vary many times before anyone can say for sure 

 

 

Edited by Banbury
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14 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

The deep low pressure is being over played by the models along with the shower activity.

we are looking at a windy week with showers, mostly of rain, away from elevation.  Showers reducing towards the end of the week with some sharp frosts.

day time temperatures generally between 3 and 8 degrees c.  After next weekend we may see higher temperatures move in from the west.  I am not seeing enough HP to the north at present to assist in giving more interesting weather for coldies.

Erm did someone base that off a beeb forecast? They certaintly always underplay and are often late to the show. Typically models always under-do showery activity, the synoptic suggests there will be frequent showers in N/W regions that’s certain. Some parts in NW might see in excess of 2 foot above 300 meters I reckon, cobblers. There could well be a very deep low there’s a fair amount of support in it looking at GEFS and H-res models.

Edited by Daniel*

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I imagine the 12z will be the most important runs of winter so far :rofl: 

I was just thinking to myself, has any weather organisation ever created a “model” that’s output is a blend of gfs/ecm/ukmo.? Surely wouldn’t be that hard to do, and results would be interesting for 5-10 day period. Would be useful for these situations.

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16 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

The deep low pressure is being over played by the models along with the shower activity.

we are looking at a windy week with showers, mostly of rain, away from elevation.  Showers reducing towards the end of the week with some sharp frosts.

day time temperatures generally between 3 and 8 degrees c.  After next weekend we may see higher temperatures move in from the west.  I am not seeing enough HP to the north at present to assist in giving more interesting weather for coldies.

Shower activity is not being over played in my mind. With uppers like this and very cold 500mb temperatures, combine that with a 10-12c Atlantic SST in this area, you are looking at a recipe of frequent showers, troughs and lines of showers that could last hours in one location or another.

image.thumb.png.aab1e4b0f7cac85164f65f6108709a0c.pngimage.thumb.png.aab775d1659faa93373f469384481a15.png  

Edited by Dean E
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27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It is out the ordinary the extreme NW the Hebrides tends to see very strong winds that isn’t that unusual but not in more populated regions. A once every xx storm the ICON shows. For some you better hope ICON is nowhere near. 

From a Dutch wikipage: January 25th 1990, January 18th 2007, October 28th 2013, December 5th 2013 saw storms with similar strengths hit the Netherlands (we are supposed to be one of the hardest hit, according to arpege at least) these storms hit the Netherlands but the UK gets even more as some of these storms track south or north of us. 

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I imagine the 12z will be the most important runs of winter so far :rofl: 

I was just thinking to myself, has any weather organisation ever created a “model” that’s output is a blend of gfs/ecm/ukmo.? Surely wouldn’t be that hard to do, and results would be interesting for 5-10 day period. Would be useful for these situations.

Yes,critically crucial this pm as to the rest of what is left of winter as the days lengthen and sun gets stronger.:wink:

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Yes,critically crucial this pm as to the rest of what is left of winter as the days lengthen and sun gets stronger.:wink:

Not sure why people say a certain set of runs will be crucial when they change every 6 hours!

People sometimes forget they are a forecast not a certainty. 

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13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I imagine the 12z will be the most important runs of winter so far :rofl: 

I was just thinking to myself, has any weather organisation ever created a “model” that’s output is a blend of gfs/ecm/ukmo.? Surely wouldn’t be that hard to do, and results would be interesting for 5-10 day period. Would be useful for these situations.

NOAA uses a blend of GFS, GEM and ECMWF

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Not sure why people say a certain set of runs will be crucial when they change every 6 hours!

People sometimes forget they are a forecast not a certainty. 

My comment was tongue in cheek, just another set of runs lol.

 

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

NOAA uses a blend of GFS, GEM and ECMWF

In model form? Or descriptive text?

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17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I imagine the 12z will be the most important runs of winter so far :rofl: 

I was just thinking to myself, has any weather organisation ever created a “model” that’s output is a blend of gfs/ecm/ukmo.? Surely wouldn’t be that hard to do, and results would be interesting for 5-10 day period. Would be useful for these situations.

Check this out, blend of almost all numerical weather models. 

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/arcus_charts.asp

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22 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

The deep low pressure is being over played by the models along with the shower activity.

we are looking at a windy week with showers, mostly of rain, away from elevation.  Showers reducing towards the end of the week with some sharp frosts.

day time temperatures generally between 3 and 8 degrees c.  After next weekend we may see higher temperatures move in from the west.  I am not seeing enough HP to the north at present to assist in giving more interesting weather for coldies.

but if the deep low is being overplayed, it would likely track further south, with less mixing out of the cold uppers and allowing the colder air in general to stay further south. consequently, this would in turn, bring the snow risk further south. you can't have it both ways!

personally i'm not expecting much snow, if any, for my region (the south east) but i'm certainly not discounting it. however, areas further north and west could see significant snowfall even to lower levels. 

anyway, you say "we"- you live in canada!

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

In model form? Or descriptive text?

Not sure how they do it, I read it in a NOAA bulletin, they described how each set of models was weighed to make an ensemble suite (something like 25% GEFS current run, 25% GEFS previous run, 25% GEM ensemble, 25% EC ensemble)

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

but if the deep low is being overplayed, it would likely track further south, with less mixing out of the cold uppers and allowing the colder air in general to stay further south. consequently, this would in turn, bring the snow risk further south. you can't have it both ways!

personally i'm not expecting much snow, if any, for my region (the south east) but i'm certainly not discounting it. however, areas further north and west could see significant snowfall even to lower levels. 

anyway, you say "we"- you live in canada!

Regardless of whether the low pressure area moves further south is irrelevant in this set up.  I know certain members are getting excited, but the reality is that there is too much temperature modification due to the huge stretch of water that the air will travel.  High ground will do well, especially in the north.  A more northerly adjustment will of course lower the temperatures but by then the shower activity will reduce to north facing coasts and hills.  I know my take on it won’t be popular but I am only basing it on knowledge and past experience of this type of weather pattern.

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2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

gfs mlp.JPG

You are posting yesterday's gfs because...?

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Trouble with the slider, runner call it what you will, is, unless its a very shallow weak low  its has the effect of flattening the Atlantic ridge thus turning the flow more westerly than north westerly and subsequently the low takes on a more northerly track.

If this has already been mentioned then ignore.

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11 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Can i just say the one liners are becomong extremley tedious. I am not a newbie. I understand a bit not enough to comment. But learn so much from Tamara Smurr and knocker. To name but a few. What is annoying is the imbyism in here. I thought thats what regionals were for. I am intrigued by this run ofthe next week or so as it goes. Never can i remember a true nwesterly coming in so cold. My imbyism would be southeast obviously but am happy to read watch and embibe. Lets c how it materialises over the next week.

Yesto those who continue to mention lengthening days... it happens just look at feb 1991 with favourable conditions. Rant over move if required mods

what "imbyism"? as far as i can see, people are discussing the upcoming north-westerly cold spell and the areas it could affect. which will be everyone in one way or another, be it wind rain or snow.

i actually think its been a pretty balanced discussion.

Edited by bobbydog
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Just a word before the 12s

we have seen small compact deep storms modelled before by the GFS with a verification stat of pretty close to zero-

Although at least the storm is in the semi reliable timeframe

The euros aren’t on board so for me expect a watered down southerly track - midlands the best bet!

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