Model output discussion - mid-winter

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's snow galore on the 18z tonight and prolonged cold spell setting in next week..very happy with the models today, hopefully plenty more great charts tomorrow too!

I suppose 1 week is prolonged for the UK lol ? 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Draig Goch said:

Well that's 1 cold week more than the last few winters anyway lol

Indeed lol. I am certainly not complaining after the last few dross years

[Jason M]

Interesting to see the heights rise over Iberia at the end of the run. I noticed the GEM ensembles had a lot of examples of this earlier. GP suggested this might show earlier today but felt it would be an over reaction to something. Will be worth watching over the next few days though to see if this trend builds. Sincerely hope not as we might start seeing that squirrel return to the thread if so.

I have a feeling that around days 8-10 we may be approaching the fork in the road for this winter. Interesting set up which could go either way. At least we have a spin of the wheel this year though! 

 

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks likely to be a 1 week cold spell. There was a slight trend on some of the gfs ops over the last few days to build heights over northern scandi next weekend but that signal has disappeared today and thus far the ecm ops are not interested in that sort of scenario. Still time for this signal to return but I am not hopeful. 

I'm sure alot of folk would bank the one week cold spell if offered to them now though.  The models look like firming up on a very wintry week starting Monday evening especially elevated areas towards the NW.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I'm sure alot of folk would bank the one week cold spell if offered to them now though.  The models look like firming up on a very wintry week starting Monday evening especially elevated areas towards the NW.

We have to take what we can get in this country

[high ground birmingham]

GFS has to be given a lot of credit here! Has modelled this consistently since 240 hours. Other models have been all over the shop especially ECM. 

[Rinse The Raindrops]

1991 was one week I'd take that

[blizzard81]

Just now, Rinse The Raindrops said:

1991 was one week I'd take that

This ain't no Feb 91

[Cheshire Freeze]

13 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Interesting to see the heights rise over Iberia at the end of the run. I noticed the GEM ensembles had a lot of examples of this earlier. GP suggested this might show earlier today but felt it would be an over reaction to something. Will be worth watching over the next few days though to see if this trend builds. Sincerely hope not as we might start seeing that squirrel return to the thread if so.

I have a feeling that around days 8-10 we may be approaching the fork in the road for this winter. Interesting set up which could go either way. At least we have a spin of the wheel this year though! 

 

 

Even with increased heights showing over Iberia, it looks all very transient to me and it doesn't look like they'll hang around for too long. The general NH profile looks set to be locked in to -AO for the foreseeable- perhaps staying that way until winter's end.

[Rinse The Raindrops]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

This ain't no Feb 91

Realise that nowhere near ,my point being 1 week event

[blizzard81]

Just now, Rinse The Raindrops said:

Realise that nowhere near ,my point being 1 week event

Indeed, point taken. It is nice to have something to look forward to. It will feel bitter next week I would imagine and some will see accumulating snow. Good times. 

[SLEETY]

Yes but are we expecting over a ft of snow on low ground like 1991 not even comparable in any way weather wise 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is great tonight- very unstable NW 'er..

And for those in the south , Helen Willetts just said ' snow possible into the south next week'.

Willetts said that!?......Ice age has arrived....knew it

 

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll clarify my above post a bit (given the confused reaction to it)

I'm not seeing anything that is likely to promote a change in the generally -AO hemispheric base state that we have seen for large chunks of this winter. If anything, the AO could tank further into February should we see the fabled SSW occur...though at the moment I'm not entirely convinced we'll see a technical SSW this side of the end of Jan.

[Jason M]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Even with increased heights showing over Iberia, it looks all very transient to me and it doesn't look like they'll hang around for too long. The general NH profile looks set to be locked in to -AO for the foreseeable- perhaps staying that way until winter's end.

Hmm, hope your right. I thought the GEM ensembles looked ominous earlier today. The signal didn't look transient to me.

That said, its still a long way out and I take on board GPs comments earlier. We have this week to get through first albeit it looks like a bog standard winter cold spell to me rather than anything noteworthy (just my opinion before anyone gets excited ). Obviously in saying that I do recognize some will do very well, particularly on higher ground in the NW and even down here I reckon we will see some snow fall (along with some cold rain).  

 

Edit GEFS look more 'mixed' with a few good uns thrown in. prtb 16 is nice 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0

 

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Jason M

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Even with increased heights showing over Iberia, it looks all very transient to me and it doesn't look like they'll hang around for too long. The general NH profile looks set to be locked in to -AO for the foreseeable- perhaps staying that way until winter's end.

Yep, I am a little more confident after seeing the 18z. Never thought I would say that lol. The reason I do say it is that the 10 day  mean looks very similar to the ecm mean at the same time. However, heights build quickly in the north Atlantic on the 18z mean at day 12. This seems to tally with the expected neg nao for late January. Reasons to be optimistic this time. 

[tight isobar]

An interesting set ...

Edited January 12, 2018 by tight isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

Even as far out as day 16, we see the GEFS giving strong hints that the trop PV will remain disturbed

Edited January 12, 2018 by CreweCold

[Man With Beard]

Just one ECM cluster between D8-D10

Looks pretty cold. However, my hunch is we may see another low get through the Atlantic to join the Euro trough during this time, which if happened, could become a slider underneath the cold air. It just always seems to happen when the models show a fair but not overwhelming Atlantic height rise at this timescale.

Now, D15 is interesting

I'd describe this as "all or nothing". The larger control run cluster shows a ridge around Iceland, which would likely lead to more wintry weather. The other two clusters are pretty much the opposite - good height rises over Europe, they look almost spring-like.

So still no way of calling things after D10, except that the cold weather looks like hanging on slightly longer than seemed before - possibly still on the cold side of the Atlantic ridge even by 22 Jan.

[ICE COLD]

Be nice to get GEFS P16 . I know in la la land but still nice to look at . ?

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Jason M said:

Hmm, hope your right. I thought the GEM ensembles looked ominous earlier today. The signal didn't look transient to me.

That said, its still a long way out and I take on board GPs comments earlier. We have this week to get through first albeit it looks like a bog standard winter cold spell to me rather than anything noteworthy (just my opinion before anyone gets excited ). Obviously in saying that I do recognize some will do very well, particularly on higher ground in the NW and even down here I reckon we will see some snow fall (along with some cold rain).  

 

Edit GEFS look more 'mixed' with a few good uns thrown in. prtb 16 is nice 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0

 

 

Was it you that riduculed folk for ‘cherry picking’ cold synoptics by using GEM ensembles? The PM cold spell is far from bog standard perhaps ‘meh’ for us in the SE, nothing really significant however that runner may deliver if trends continue. There could be significant snowfall even south of the M4 a fun new week of dynamic weather approaches. A promising day it has been we’re not seeing last minute downgrades quite the contrary. 

[CK1981]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

An interesting set ...

Yes, a general warming trend after a mediocre cold snap. Really can’t see anything too special in the grand scheme of things. Maybe early Feb will deliver.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Yes, a general warming trend after a mediocre cold snap. Really can’t see anything too special in the grand scheme of things. Maybe early Feb will deliver.

How is that a warming trend? Plenty remain cold however more uncertain. And you’re doing the cold spell an injustice how often do you see a mean of -5C uppers in London for six days from a cold zonal flow - impressive. I think folk ought to wait before calling it mediocre I think many will be pleasantly surprised. 

[Dean E]

14 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Yes, a general warming trend after a mediocre cold snap. Really can’t see anything too special in the grand scheme of things. Maybe early Feb will deliver.

Just going to add these are all the members of that ensemble. There's -10c to +10c 850s in there, and everything in between...

Hardly a warming trend.

Anyway, great set of models today. Haven't had time to really delve into them due to work, but glad to see a big pattern change on the way for us.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Dean E

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

How is that a warming trend? Plenty remain cold however more uncertain. And you’re doing the cold spell an injustice how often do you see a mean of -5C uppers in London for six days from a cold zonal flow - impressive. I think folk ought to wait before calling it mediocre I think many will be pleasantly surprised. 

Well, for a start, you can see by the mean it’s a warming trend. Secondly, it is mediocre (based on current output) as no deep cold is predicted. What exactly are you waiting for, some kind of nationwide deep freeze? I would hardy call maximum temperatures of 6c a surprise. Yes, they will fluctuate, but I think you’re expecting the unexpected to be fair.