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Paul

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As a coldie, this week has been a  disappointment but judging by the Ecm 12z, next week certainly won't be!..a strong cold blast incoming from the NW from late Monday onwards behind a band of rain with increasingly wintry showers soon following and indeed a good chance of snow across most of the uk as next week goes on, some places could see disruptive snow and I'm sure there will be plenty of yellow / amber warnings to look forward to across parts of the uk in the days ahead..I expect there will be plenty of frost / ice too..even colder air sweeping down from the north later next week too..a very good run if you love cold!:cold-emoji::)

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Edited by Frosty.
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This Atlantic thrust has come earlier than expected as in it’s penetration through us.  The fact there’s signs of it getting disrupted I’m not entirely surprised as I anticipate another displaced PV chunk to hit us towards last week of the month.  So for me what is initially coming is a bonus....let’s see what develops onwards....but any break in cold Synoptics is only resetting for main surge.

 

BFTP

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is great tonight- very unstable NW 'er..

And for those in the south , Helen Willetts just said ' snow possible into the south next week'.

:)

Yeah south midlands prob lol

our time will come ( hopefully) just need to send gp’s missile down the m4

12 z firming up on a good spell for our northern friends, good luck.

just hoping we can get into a more northerly/ north easterly over the coming runs.

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is great tonight- very unstable NW 'er..

And for those in the south , Helen Willetts just said ' snow possible into the south next week'.

:)

Looking at the uppers and the moderated flow, any snow lying at lower levels will be very transient. If that’s all that’s on offer, I think most would rather it stayed dry. There’s nothing worse than a slush fest. Bring on an easterly and then many will be happy!

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2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Yeah south midlands prob lol

our time will come ( hopefully) just need to send gp’s missile down the m4

12 z firming up on a good spell for our northern friends, good luck.

just hoping we can get into a more northerly/ north easterly over the coming runs.

maybe the runner?

gfs-0-132.png?12

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe the runner?

gfs-0-132.png?12

Possibly -  not sure, she didn't really elaborate- the uppers are not actually significantly different north to south looking at the EC 850s - the cold air really does penetrate along way south ...

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Evening all :)

Not expecting any lying snow in lowland East London but will I see any falling snow ? Perhaps but I do think I will see plenty of rain and perhaps some hail and sleet as next week goes on.

Overall precipitation quantities of interest:

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

A lot of rain (and presumably snow) to western and north western areas but much less further east.

Where do we go from there ?

ECM 12Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?12-0

GFS 12Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png?12

GEM 12Z OP at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?12

To be honest, all these and the GEFS at the same time tell me there are no strong signals as yet for the evolution into the last third of January. The GFS 00Z and 12Z Control both offered something of interest but until the exit of the trough next week has been sorted out it's going to be hard to have any confidence in the evolution beyond that point.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Possibly -  not sure, she didn't really elaborate- the uppers are not actually significantly different north to south looking at the EC 850s - the cold air really does penetrate along way south ...

hopefully end up like this! heaviest snow I think I 've seen, daytime too, anyone else remember it? high up must have had a dumping, tennis ball sized flakes!

archives-1998-1-5-12-0.png

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

the uppers are not actually significantly different north to south looking at the EC 850s - the cold air really does penetrate along way south ...

Agreed, 522 dam reaches the south, it looks wintry next week..much better than this week for sure.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Looking at the uppers and the moderated flow, any snow lying at lower levels will be very transient. If that’s all that’s on offer, I think most would rather it stayed dry. There’s nothing worse than a slush fest. Bring on an easterly and then many will be happy!

Got to look at the other factors too. Dew points and  thickness  looks pretty good.    For the central midlands north, looks like snow to me. and possibly lots of it.  The Se may get its turn the week after

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30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended appears to be heading towards a northerly

ukm2.2018011912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.08986a1a863a0a57ca60b84495658492.png

Indeed SS

some deep frosts there as well....

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Just catching up reading last 10-12 pages and things still seem on track for colder weather to spread southwards from Monday and those in NW britain at 150m+ are quite likely to see some nice landscapes next week as it progresses.Those further South will probably just remain cold and further East you go may have some nice winter sunshine which would make a change from this week(bar Wednesday here) in what has been a dull dank week.Not looking past next Wednesday tbh in what could be potentially be quite an exciting week for some in terms of snow.Longer Term there is potential for areas not expected to see snow to join in the fun but been there too many times to get too carried away:).

Good luck to those that see snow next week and send in the pictures in the Regionals!!

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2 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all :)

Not expecting any lying snow in lowland East London but will I see any falling snow ? Perhaps but I do think I will see plenty of rain and perhaps some hail and sleet as next week goes on.

Overall precipitation quantities of interest:

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

A lot of rain (and presumably snow) to western and north western areas but much less further east.

Where do we go from there ?

ECM 12Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?12-0

GFS 12Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png?12

GEM 12Z OP at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?12

To be honest, all these and the GEFS at the same time tell me there are no strong signals as yet for the evolution into the last third of January. The GFS 00Z and 12Z Control both offered something of interest but until the exit of the trough next week has been sorted out it's going to be hard to have any confidence in the evolution beyond that point.

Looks increasingly likely that the azores will stick it's nose in from day 10. Tamara's post from earlier certainly ringing in my ears after the 12z runs. The main question is, how long will the azores nosiness last? 

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8 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Got to look at the other factors too. Dew points and  thickness  looks pretty good.    For the central midlands north, looks like snow to me. and possibly lots of it.  The Se may get its turn the week after

Snow falling, yes, but I’m talking about it on the ground. It’ll soon melt in most lowland areas.

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Just now, Man With Beard said:

Many many ECM ensembles take the runner low even further south - increasingly the risk of an M4 SOUTH event

Thanks for tht MWB :)

Perhaps this is what Helen W is referring to ?

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10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks increasingly likely that the azores will stick it's nose in from day 10. Tamara's post from earlier certainly ringing in my ears after the 12z runs. The main question is, how long will the azores nosiness last? 

The question from that becomes what any rise in pressure would look like and where any resulting HP would sit and be oriented. The 12Z GEFS out in far FI are a mixed bunch as you would expect but I would value a pretty large cluster try to raise pressure across the British Isles.

Some have quoted the EC46 as a source for the Azores building in argument but the Control for instance builds pressure from the NE while another option might be to see pressure build from both north and south with an MLB set up close to or over the British Isles.

I have no idea and the models are playing with all kinds of solutions at this point.

Just had a look at the GEM Ensembles however and a strong cluster sending the Azores HP NE toward the south west approaches with the blow torch hot (as it were) on its heels. 

Edited by stodge
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The outlook past day ten comes down to whether we see trough disruption with energy going se.

De Bilt shows the split in wind directions , given the overall pattern has good support upto day ten the more easterly based solutions would be those with that energy heading se.

I haven’t checked every member in terms of synoptics but given the Euro trough has little spread at day ten we can assume the divergence of solutions is tied in with energy either under or over .

Edited by nick sussex

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Many many ECM ensembles take the runner low even further south - increasingly the risk of an M4 SOUTH event

most likely, these tend to track south nearer the time

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Just now, Man With Beard said:

Many many ECM ensembles take the runner low even further south - increasingly the risk of an M4 SOUTH event

Yes I noticed that too, next week looks fascinating from a coldies perspective, it could be more wintry than some on here think..I think they are great charts next week, certainly compared to the poor charts / dank murky weather this week..bring it on!:D:cold-emoji:

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36 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended appears to be heading towards a northerly

ukm2.2018011912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.08986a1a863a0a57ca60b84495658492.png

Looks very similar to the ECM between 168 and 192h maybe....Great charts for January :D 

ECM1-168_fsq3.GIFimage.thumb.png.f8d7fafbd945cb2c775399aaefa733d0.pngECM1-192_ovp0.GIF

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5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

not seen every day from the west

644.png

Thats 516 DAM quite a long way SOUTH!!

:)

Really really cold air on that chart..

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