Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen
Paul

Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Not really - the only way folk in the South can have any meaningful and lying snow is for runners to run across the base of any dominant trough and even then a hell of a lot of luck is needed.

maybe this year this winter has the ability to produce, snowing in some right weird places and amounts around us so why not?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Crap Uppers though.

Is it?

UW144-7.GIF?10-17gfs-1-144.png?12

Edited by frosty ground
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, frosty ground said:

Is it?

UW144-7.GIF?10-17gfs-1-144.png?12

For an Atlantic modified flow, that is rain for the vast majority I am afraid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

chances of back edge snow starting tea time Monday while Ireland already enjoying the fun

gfs-2-126.png?12

more westerly action into Tuesday

gfs-2-144.png?12

Edited by andymusic
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Living in north west northern ireland, seen many atlantic lows coming in with -5/6 uppers and its alwaysss rain or sleet to low levels, atleast on the west of the country. gfs looks marginal, could be snowfest for some, UKMO uppers only -4, I wouldnt be expecting snow with that. it could well happen, i just wouldnt get my hopes up

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

For an Atlantic modified flow, that is rain for the vast majority I am afraid.

not in my back yard:hi:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Crap Uppers though.

I make them -6 UKmo and gfs 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, frosty ground said:

Is it?

UW144-7.GIF?10-17gfs-1-144.png?12

On the UKMO most definitely (which is what I am responding to), -4c is never enough to avoid marginality in a NW flow, you might be lucky if you live up the A672 or A62 at 1000ft but even for me and certainly for low ground in the North never mind in the South, so for the majority of habitable places yes - BTW I'm not saying that's the way it will turn out as you point out that the GFS is better, but I'm just saying what the UKMO model is saying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

For an Atlantic modified flow, that is rain for the vast majority I am afraid.

What parameter do you think is out? GFS at -6 or -7 looks fine, dewpoints are good, I checked the 850-1000 on the morning run via weatheronline and they looked good, ground temps are zero or near below, I even checked the wet bulb freezing level, which was good (please note, I was focusing on Pennines but they appeared okay more widely) Now -4 would be poor in UKMO and -5 would likely need elevation, so there's the problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given any waves/disturbances within the flow, I'd say that there's more than enough potential to keep us all busy::yahoo:

 

h850t850eu.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, snowice said:

I make them -6 UKmo and gfs 

You cant tell exactly what they are but they are between -4 and -6c on UKMO, GFS are lower than -6c so could be a goer.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sometimes just nothing is good enough for people is it!! inland -4 and below will be fine for snow regardless. and if it cant mid jan then it never can.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

On the UKMO most definitely (which is what I am responding to), -4c is never enough to avoid marginality in a NW flow, you might be lucky if you live up the A672 or A62 at 1000ft but even for me and certainly for low ground in the North never mind in the South, so for the majority of habitable places yes - BTW I'm not saying that's the way it will turn out as you point out that the GFS is better, but I'm just saying what the UKMO model is saying.

The UKM is under -5 especially for the Greater Manchester area. Cold for for snow with elevation...... Plus any shower activity is going to pack a punch and drag temps down.

Also the reply you replied to quoted both GFS and UKM.

Edited by frosty ground
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ukpaul said:

What parameter do you think is out? GFS at -6 or -7 looks fine, dewpoints are good, I checked the 850-1000 on the morning run via weatheronline and they looked good, ground temps are zero or near below, I even checked the wet bulb freezing level, which was good (please note, I was focusing on Pennines but they appeared okay more widely) Now -4 would be poor in UKMO and -5 would likely need elevation, so there's the problem.

The uppers even at -6/-7 on a westerly flow are VERY marginal.  Elevation is the key for lying snow - 200m+ is most likely needed for lying snow in my honest opinion.  Scottish mountains will do very well as ever in this kind of set-up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

What parameter do you think is out? GFS at -6 or -7 looks fine, dewpoints are good, I checked the 850-1000 on the morning run via weatheronline and they looked good, ground temps are zero or near below, I even checked the wet bulb freezing level, which was good (please note, I was focusing on Pennines but they appeared okay more widely) Now -4 would be poor in UKMO and -5 would likely need elevation, so there's the problem.

In a NW flow for mainland Uk ideally sub 1280 DAM

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

In the village looking towards my apartment this afternoon. Love snow.

26196009_10156116215108628_4037692912763661742_n.jpg

Wow, great pic C

I highly suspect winter 17/18 will end up going down as one of the best ever in recent history for many places in the Alps. I can't really see any let up in snow events as January progresses and going into Feb.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You cant tell exactly what they are but they are between -4 and -6c on UKMO, GFS are lower than -6c so could be a goer.

The GFS is below -6 for most 144-7UK.GIF?10-1295% of the UK is under -5

UKM has a smaller area of -6 over northern England.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All

The 12z UKMO & GFs @ 144 look like the ideal blend of enough progression SE from the Atlantic to bring widespread snow to the W/NW whilst still appearing to hold back enough to allow sinking & pressure to build over the top as the Scandi high & arctic high lurk in the back ground -

a fine balance but we don’t want any more eastward shunts...

S

Hi Steve

Can you solve the uppers problem as some members don't think there cold for snow gfs UKmo look fine to me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coldish uppers, light winds, heavy precipitation and a warm sector - a forecaster's nightmare?

 

h850t850eu.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Wow, great pic C

I highly suspect winter 17/18 will end up going down as one of the best ever in recent history for many places in the Alps. I can't really see any let up in snow events as January progresses and going into Feb.

And  winter 17/18 in the uk will go down as one of the best ever in recent history for chasing cold for many ,but in the end it only delivered in the Scottish Highlands:gathering:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@johnholmes produced a superb guide on "will it snow" - would be good to link it here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Wow, great pic C

I highly suspect winter 17/18 will end up going down as one of the best ever in recent history for many places in the Alps. I can't really see any let up in snow events as January progresses and going into Feb.

Certainly one of the best starts since I first came here in 2005 and seems to be spread out to all the Alpine ski nations, particularly those at altitude have amassed really good depths. February 2013 produced some locally very good snowfalls in Carinthia particularly.

 C

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By DiagonalRedLine
      Greetings!
      A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. 🍂🍁
      There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with further showers, heavy rain and blowy weather. As many have illustrated, some particular concerns about Sunday where models, such as the GFS, show a troublesome storm exploding over the U.K! However, since it’s still a few days away and with models showing varied solutions on the Low Pressure system’s track and power, there are still questions as to how bad it may actually be.

      Even before then, there’s a risk of gales at times with strong South-Westerly to Westerly winds.
      Please keep on topic in here sticking to the models and please keep things friendly. Rude and insulting behaviour is not tolerated! 🚫
      If your post contains moans, banter and ramps, expect it to either get deleted ❌ or moved into a more suitable thread. Would be ideal to keep any banter and moaning to a minimum, otherwise this would be a more suited thread for it (especially if it’s about Autumn): 
      But a bit of moans, banter and ramping is acceptable in here as longs as it still has a fair amount of sensible model chat and is not overdone.
      Additionally, we also have a Short Range Model Chat thread, which can be used to discuss charts within the short range (preferably around the 0 to 72 hour mark, but up to 5 days would still be okay).
      But you can still use this main model thread if you wish for short range discussions.
      Also, we have a Model Tweets thread for posting tweets about the models:
      ...and a Stratospheric Temperature watch thread for monitoring the temperatures and conditions within the Stratosphere:
      If you do post tweets about the models in this main model thread, then make sure you include some reasonable discussion of the models in your post as well, otherwise it may get moved to the Model Tweets thread.
      (Edit): Having said that, we have lots of different topics in this forum section you can take part in, not just the ones mentioned above. 🙂
      —————————
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR 
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
      (Link to previous thread):
      ——————————
      Thanks all!  
    • By Paul
      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
      Please keep on topic in this thread, by only discussing the model output. This isn't the place to be discussing (or arguing) over weather preferences and the like, so please don't be tempted to go there! And as ever, please also keep it friendly...
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By phil nw.
      Well we are around the halfway point of the Spring season and it seems a good time to start a new thread to continue discussions.
      A look at the 00z ECM day 4 charts shows that finally some widespread warmth is on the way after the cold,damp and often cloudy conditions of recent weeks.

      A developing Euro high and a stalling Atlantic trough pushing the jet stream further north and bringing the winds from a warmer south/south westerly direction.
      A welcome change of pattern for most of us i would think.
      Ok please continue 
       
       
       
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×